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NIGHTHAWK 6 BAGGER ON DEBUT. (HAWK)     

oilyrag - 12 Mar 2007 07:10

Pre IPO price 4p
Opening price on debut 25p
Floatation price 46p to raise 14million to extend Jolly Ranch
Current fair value estimate 114p
Market cap 70.59 million.
Value of Cisco Springs investments 98 million.
Value of Vogel investments 75 million.
Desparado trucking now Nightfox 250,000 for a 50% stake with partner Running Foxes.
Centurion Project Kansas, 150,000 for a 50% stake.
Jolly Ranch Colorado, 40,000 acres cost 356,000 for a 50% stake.
Cash in bank 7.75 million.

As this EPIC opens on AIM today anything could happen. On the one hand you have traders trying to cash in a sixfold profit. You will also have a clambering of traders after shares because, firstly they could only get 75% of their allocation because of demand. Secondly at 25p this company is still way under valued.

scotinvestor - 01 Jul 2008 23:42 - 421 of 1373

the last year should be the final evidence to show that uk should break links from usa.....the usa r a shower anyway.

sorry to depress u, req.....but july is going to be a stinker.....i reckon dow jones could go to 9500 very soon which means i think ftse will be 4900 by end of month

i read some stupid fund manager saying things cant get much worse last week as if u took out oil / mining, ftse would be under 5000 already....mmm, market and charts dont work like that.....i reckon ftse will end up about 4500 before things turn around....so we are only half way through since star of year.....maybe by christmas things will turn around

pass us the prozac in the meantime

andysmith - 02 Jul 2008 08:21 - 422 of 1373

This is being heavily shorted and will be a storming buy once the dust settles.

hlyeo98 - 02 Jul 2008 08:25 - 423 of 1373

71p now...further selling going on ...take a profit if you are in it cos it going lower

oilyrag - 02 Jul 2008 08:29 - 424 of 1373

Can anyone hazzard a guess at where this should bottom out.

hlyeo98 - 02 Jul 2008 08:37 - 425 of 1373

50p

CWMAM - 02 Jul 2008 08:39 - 426 of 1373

just above 60p?

scotinvestor - 02 Jul 2008 12:51 - 427 of 1373

hyleo

do u think this will still go to 50 or 60p?

this has rocketed to 85p but drifted a few pence since then.....what the hell is going on with this share

gnashlevel2 - 02 Jul 2008 14:12 - 428 of 1373

I think it is recovering too strongly now to see that happen, there is optimism then there is out-and-out theft after all ;-)

OPC and other updates are quite imminent and think the buyers returning now know this. Funs over.

andysmith - 02 Jul 2008 16:08 - 429 of 1373

What the hell is going on, down to 69p at one point and then back up to 90p before settling, strange stuff here with HAWK.

scotinvestor - 02 Jul 2008 16:14 - 430 of 1373

i sold out in early 70s as i didnt want all my profit to disappear.....bad move by todays sudden increase.....however i think this month will be a bloodbath and so hawk will get moved down again

andysmith - 02 Jul 2008 16:21 - 431 of 1373

Nothing wrong with banking up a profit, thats why I sold Friday.
It nearly hit my buy instruction today before rising !!!!!!!!!!!!
Have the shorters closed their positions?

scotinvestor - 02 Jul 2008 16:24 - 432 of 1373

dont think so andy but a lot of automatic buy trades too.....seems a great trading share in last week.....plus markets are volatile......trend is down still however even with todays rise so who knows.
unless u hold for another year or so, this is pure gambling if u r just in it for a week or so right now

gnashlevel2 - 02 Jul 2008 18:51 - 433 of 1373

but 'trends' mean diddly-squat for some stocks scotinvestor -today proved it.
hawk was manipulated down -that isn't something that could be foreseen in graphs. Unless of course chartist admit that visits from dodgy gangs of thieves, sorry, I meant 'organised short traders in nice pressed shirts and ties' are a legit part of a chartism...

;-)

halifax - 02 Jul 2008 19:39 - 434 of 1373

It seems to me that HAWK is doing much the same as IVE and SER by re- entering old oilfields that became uneconomic but now with the price of oil where it is are worth re-working. However none of these wells were enormous producers in the past so we cannot expect a sudden bonanza but more likely a steady but small flow of gas and oil. The question is will production be sufficient to justify their market capitalisation?

gnashlevel2 - 03 Jul 2008 09:40 - 435 of 1373

halifax, like-for-like with the past isn't really workable, not only are detection methods a huge improvement from the old-days (3D seismic for one..) but recovery methods are much more efficient. HAWKs' oil is mostly a nice bonus, as first and foremost it is a gas play -and they have a huge amount for an eager market. The imminent OPC report will be regarded as the source of up-to-date fact on HAWK's market cap projections. Best stay away if you're in doubt though, but I think you'll rue watching HAWKs' sp as time goes by, as production is now stepping up month after month. I cannot miss getting on what will be a mid-tier O&G company at these prices, with hydrocarbon prices going the way they are.

halifax - 03 Jul 2008 10:44 - 436 of 1373

gnashlevel2 dont disaagree but would like to know what is the current level of production and see some projections for 2008/9?

cobras - 03 Jul 2008 11:25 - 437 of 1373

anybody know anythink about nrock compesantion ,appreciate yr views thanks

gnashlevel2 - 03 Jul 2008 16:12 - 438 of 1373

halifax, I could only say production is growing and will later be 'significant'
Of course, by the time it is 'significant' the current sp will be ancient history. You sort have to figure which companies will reliably do the job given time, and invest early. I'd love to have got on BP (just for examples' sake) under a quid :-)
You can only make such killings by getting on early, very early, and for that the risk-to-benefit of HAWK is extremely attractive to me.

halifax - 03 Jul 2008 16:35 - 439 of 1373

gnashlevel2 my concern is that if production is only the equivalent of say 100bopd per well this would not be sufficient to justify a significant increase in the sp; by the way I am in at 46p.

gnashlevel2 - 03 Jul 2008 17:22 - 440 of 1373

Well far from repeating but the last indy Buy note that was 235p while not even pricing in everything and it was a very well researched note for what HAWK projects it did cover. I can't see the company reaching peak production before it is bought out, that's kind of the whole point for me being in; reserves and best extraction method will be proved and the whole shebang sold. That's why I'm in, for the relatively quick route to a handsome exit sp, rather some of the other plays that might be more of a never ending story. An tight exit strategy does focus things and physically cuts through the nonsense like the sp dips we saw.

46p? Lucky you, possibly a 6 times return looks just a case of waiting another Summer or so. Between you and me I think we'll see above 3 come then.
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