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rf never thought we would have another South Sea Bubble, or will it become known as the South Atlantic Bubble?

petronella and rf put out enough gas between them to create a very large bubble indeed

Hal and Cinners.......I'm very enthusiastic about this campaign.....it's off to a good start.....condensate...even if oil was preferable.....but there is a very big chance now of finding some......and that Loligo prospect.....massive by the look of surveys...and probably commercial even if it is gas due to its size...now if it's oil as well then...the sky's the limit...

One we should keep an eye on is across the pond is CHAR (Chariot oil and gas)....already almost a month into drilling a first well out of five (70 days) in all.....prospects similar I think to the find in the Santos basin off Brasil...(not 100% sure of that)....but one to watch as well as these Falkland ones....

probably, if, maybe, possibly, ...... speculation where are the facts?

Strong finish, 120K UT at 89p - someone is buying big.

Ideally for FOGL they should farm 25% to Anadarko, 25% to Cairn - limit the upside to 50 pounds a share for Loligo but then be fully funded with the cash for 2013 3D and drilling.

No dilution needed and 50 pounds a share upside - that would be a lovely place to be.

They shall be coming.....this summer looks like a busy one for the speculative oilies.....

just more bullshit ramping.

Not on this one.....I'm in for the campaign.....check out the pdf presentation on FOGL's website....18 pages.....don't forget that the market cap here is not hefty by any means and in British waters...

oy gewalt comes to mind

plans to exit its Brazilian operations and has no Argentine interests, could make a bid.

British Gas ?

I bet everyone is quaking in their boots with Tinkerbell and his threats.

Now, all you Falkland explorers who are already banned from Argentina, you'll be banned from Argentina and sent to jail if you come (not that your are going to of course).

I'll huff and I'll puff and blow your rigs down said Tinkerbell.


http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/99191/govt-warns-oil-companies-operating-in-malvinas-as-deadline-nears

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Merchant Securities comment on BOR :

.......Borders & Southern has placed 55.3 million new ordinary shares at £0.84. The shares represent circa 11.4% of the post-money shares outstanding.  The public equity market is still not aware if the gas condensate discovered at Darwin is lean (uncommercial) or condensate rich (extremely valuable).

We believe that the difficulty in evaluating the condensate content of the reservoir fluid is in obtaining a high quality sample downhole.

Once the sample is bottled, determining the liquid content requires nothing more than the release of the gas at atmospheric conditions (natural gasoline for example does not evaporate at atmospheric conditions).

We do not know the content of the natural gasoline in the fluid recovered, but we believe that Borders & Southern should have performed a simple preliminary assessment by now......

Looks like the fuller test results won't be long then whereas I was thinking a couple of months, it could be a couple of weeks, or even days until we at least find out the condensate content of the reservoir fluid.

BOR will soon have 484m shares in issue - giving a market cap of 416m @ 86p share price.

FOGL has 320m shares in issue - giving a market cap of 284m @ 89p share price (yes FOGL is cheap)


If we take off the 55m shares coming to BOR they had 429m shares and got to 133p share price on excitement over a potential 760mmbo rec. find.

Market cap circa 570m. I do think DES got to 600m market cap ahead of Liz results.


So if we take 600m market cap as the "price they go to just before results" then applying that formula in future should see :


BOR going to 123p ahead of Stebbing results (But Stebbing is bigger times 4 over Darwin) (600m mc divided by 484m shares)

FOGL going to 187p ahead of Loligo (But Loligo is bigger times 16 over Darwin) (600m mc divided by 320m shares)


Anyway, those will be the target prices many people may have for the share price to be before the big news comes - just the pure "speculation value" pre-results.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

A good write up on CFK.

http://www.economist.com/node/21553031?fsrc=scn/fb/wl/ar/cristinascrapesthebarrel

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For those looking at the economics, the minimum size field for dry gas is 5 Tcf, thats a dry gas target for BOR for Darwin (E+W). Of course, if its very rich in condensates that 5 Tcf will come downwards.




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From share price movements I get the feeling some RKH holders have given up waiting for a farm out based on the CPR which was not well received, and are slowly starting to move over to BOR/FOGL.

For sure when the farm out news comes, if it does, there should be a lot of selling of RKH to pile into FOGL, and perhaps BOR if still drilling.

FOGL will get :

Follow the rig - those who sell their BOR and pile into FOGL after Stebbing result.

RKH farm out - sell the news and pile into FOGL.

Going to be some spikey times in the next 10 weeks.

Nice strong end to the week. Wonder if RHPS will give this a good write up soon - TB likes FOGL does TB.