http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

When being the word though...

Let's not forget that Shaikan has in excess of 10 billion barrels confirmed...plus more exploration upside with other targets....that is staggering....

140p by end of day... bring it on.,.

Market overreaction.....there is a saying that the market is always right...it isn't...if it was we wouldn't be here..

i had and still have far too many so didn't try to catch the knife
now a bit of calm has returned, i wonder if the RNS was intentionally on the conservative side
TK has an well-earned reputation for being a flamboyant cowboy, which he needs to lose and quickly ..... thus with GKP now heading for the main market, it would sit very poorly indeed if the next set of numbers disappointed

The main market should bring some funds in....if I'm not mistaken : they or some are obliged to pick up an average across the board....so some big boys should buy this stock soon..

Gulf Keystone CPR estimates 12.5bn barrels
StockMarketWire.com
Gulf Keystone Petroleum's reserves for the the Shaikan field and its other petroleum interests in the Kurdistan region of Iraq have been conservatively estimated at 12.5 billion barrels of gross oil in place.

The competent person's report - which was carried out by ERC Equipoise - also identifies 1.2 billion barrels of oil of combined gross 2P and 2C recoverable reserves and resources across the company's portfolio.

This is the first third-party evaluation of the company's reserves, contingent resources and prospective resources.

Added a June Future @ 126, holding March Futures which are set to roll over.

Worth C&Ping

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------,
13 Mar 2014 - 10:22

BUDAPEST, March 13 (Reuters) – Hungarian oil group MOL said on Thursday that it had started producing crude from the Bijell field in the Akri-Bijeel block that it operates in Iraq's Kurdish region.

MOL also said in a statement that its partner Gulf Keystone's last estimates for the Akri-Bijeel block's reserve potential were "very conservative." MOL holds a 20 percent interest in the Shaikan block – operated by Gulf Keystone – and 80 percent in Akri-Bijeel, where the Bijell field is located.

*********"Reserve potential estimates relating to Akri-Bijeel block in the ’Third-Party Audit’ material published today by Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd.... does not calculate with the latest positive results and is significantly lower than the current best estimate of the Operator," MOL said in a statement. ******

MOL did not give an estimate for the reserve potential.

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Akri Bijeel - continued interest. Massive differences just in interpretation of seismic and where water level is between conservative CPR and GKP/MOL estimates.

Answering Peter Hitchens @ HSBC

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (BUY) – Updated CPR and operational update
GKP LN (152p, TP 183p from 235p), Market cap: £1.36bn
In advance of the company’s move to the main board ,GKP has released an updated CPR and operational update. Baseline indications are 12.5bnbbls of gross oil in place with 1.2bnbbls of combined gross 2P and 2C recoverable reserves and resources across the Shaikan, Sheikh Adi, Ber Bahr and Akri-Bijeel blocks. As expected, all 2P reserves and the majority of 2C contingent resources have been identified within the company-operated assets of Shaikan and Sheikh Adi, and most of these reserves and resources, based on current information, are in the Jurassic formation. The CPR establishes an NPV valuation using a 10% discount rate of c.$1bn nominal based on a 'base case' oil price scenario. In-line with CFE estimates, current production stands at 10,000bopd from the company's first Shaikan production facility ("PF-1") in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which is expected to increase in Q2/2014 to 20,000bopd.
Operationally, the company has an active field development programme (Shaikan) and drilling schedule (across its portfolio) this year, which we believe will drive near term valuation. Also, GKP is currently also in the process of reviewing its financing options in conjunction with oil production during phase 1 at Shaikan (near-term target of 40,000bopd vs. Phase 1 target of 100,000bopd) – and is likely to recapitalise again following two recent bond issues. Given GKP’s significant updated reserve backing, the company will likely look to access the debt market under more favourable terms. Whilst the CPR report represents a conservative estimate based solely on reserves which are being targeted with 26 wells representing less than 25% of all wells currently envisaged for the Shaikan development, we adjust our valuation taking account of this area only. On this basis, we reiterate our BUY recommendation but reduce our TP to 183p (from 235p).

FROM EDISON:

Gulf Keystone has issued the independent CPR of its assets across Kurdistan. ERC Equipoise has assigned reserves to Shaikan for the first time, reflecting the current production and approved field development plan (phase 1), which should take production capacity to 100mb/d. The gross 2P reserves have been estimated at 299mmbbl, while a more expanded development of 2P+2C resources stands at around 1bnbbl. The report also estimates a reduced OIP for Shaikan, following inconclusive test results seen at Shaikan-6. The CPR highlights that much is still uncertain, but does confirm that Shaikan is a very large field, with a revised best OIP of 9.2bnbbl. Following the report, we have remodelled the assets and reduce our core NAV to include just the 2P+2C resources. While we continue to believe the field has the potential to grow over time, our full NAV falls to 141p/share (with core NAV of 97p/share)

Taken from ADV.
===============


dafydd123

If you look at what was announced by the company then the 300m 2P was close to what the house broker had reported and what a few on here had thought might be the case. The 2C of around 1.2Bn was also a little low but the company pointed out a few reasons as to why these numbers weren't breathtaking:

(1) Anything below 1450m was ignored by Equipoise due to the water at Shaikan-6. Considering that Equipoise then had the gall to extrapolate that result for 25 Km right across the block past several wells that had found oil below those levels all the way to Shaikan-4 is breathtaking. Just think about that for a moment.
(2) The size of Shaikan means that there are kilometres of land between the current wells. When GKP places a new well in these empty spaces then the 2C numbers will quickly head to 2P. 15 wells to be drilled within 18 months and we know this is possible as GKP have a tender out for 4 rigs. That's not f***ing about IMHO for a small E&P.
(3)Permian. Nothing included yet. What if.......?
(4)Nothing included in the reserves figures either for the Cretaceous, where steam and EOR techniques could release some big numbers.


Maybe GKP were at fault in not notifying the market of the exploits of Shaikan-6 but it must have been tricky for them to work out what was happening if the cores were saturated with oil but Evian was coming to the surface!



In reality, we're all just pissed off that the sp reacted in the way it did. Down 25% to bounce back up to 16% down at the close. However, this is GKP. In the five years I've held this share then I've seen this a few times for various reasons. It's just traders trading and the market creating a panic. Someone bought those shares today. They may want more tomorrow and the US market is giving them the opportunity by the looks of it. However, they will eventually have their fill and want to sell them back to us to make a few quid.

Meanwhile, we await the prospectus and funding information. Today's news came early. Most didn't expect anything till the middle of next week. When does the prospectus turn up? Hold tight.

still volitile.

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Can't believe this is dropping again ...where are the negatives here ?....

With other prospects...at a guess they have somewhere between 15 to 20 billion barrels in total....multiply that by the cost at the pumps and the percentage owned and you get a mouthwatering valuation....ok this is Kurdistan...not the UK ...but stilll the same...and they are starting to sort things out in Iraq and Kurdistan now....

".....In the five years I've held this share..." from post 4733 implies that this guy doesn't know how to trade a stock. Holding for five years he has missed a few opportunities to lock in profit before it has all been whittled away again. GKP has not been a good 'buy & hold ' investment, imo.

The sp is back to the price it was after Shaikan was discovered and appraised a few years ago now....at that time : it was all new......crazy to think that the sp is hovering around the pound...raising capital should liven things up ...might even get a bid from a major oil company soon.....I know that if I was BP or such....I would take a risk on this one even if it cost a quarter's profits !...

GKP 12bn barrels @ $100 x io% profit divided by ords 888 = 141p Edison
most likely , more complicated, remain undecided, and look fo take over.

this stock has and will continue to disappoint for a good while yet i'm afraid

its bad form starts with TK who is a complete cowboy who happens to have got lucky - but the city has no respect for him
then we had that court case, which GKP won, but yet again, TK showed that he did not know how to behave in public
now we have an ok cpr, which i trust will show to be conservative in due course
finally, this whole field is not only heavy oil (i think), but is based in a very politically difficult and volatile area

i hold far too many at too high a price, but will almost certainly dump most of them before the end of the fiscal year as at least i have some large capital gains against which to offset this very nasty loss