.

blackdown, its the new shrinking.

OK, that explains it.

I would estimate that its between 3 to 6 days now for the flow test to kick off.

Spotted by Jimarilo at AFN. It seems the Ocean Nomad rig has been extended on site for an additional month (prior end date of 30/Nov changed to 31/Dec).

Does this mean, is the question, that they will test the Jurassic in an updip position given the oil shows that were found during the pilot well drilling ? Is the extension and extra work the reason for the recent drawdown ?


This was from the Kingfisher Fortnightly Bulletin 2 weeks ago

Drilling Operations Bentley 9/03b-R (Update 16-08-2010)
Drilling Rig/Ship Start Date Finish Date Installation Name/ Well No Position
Ocean Nomad 04-09-2010 30-11-2010 Bentley 9/03b-R 5956.114'N 00131.681'E

This was from todays and states finish date one month later (31-12-2010)

Drilling Operations Bentley 9/03b-R (Update 01-11-2010)
Drilling Rig/Ship Start Date Finish Date Installation Name/ Well No Position
Ocean Nomad 04-09-2010 31-12-2010 Bentley 9/03b-R 5956.114'N 00131.681'E

The table below gives a value to Xcite based on the global oil price, the discounts for heavy/tax incentives for heavy are built into the final figures. It is also based on 160 Million recoverable barrels. The figures need to take into account recent drawdown but hey, not far away.








So lets be bold :

160 MM REC barrels and 90 US$ global oil price = 910p XEL

200 MM REC barrels and 80 US$ global oil price = 1012p XEL

230 MM REC barrels and 80 US$ global oil price = 1164p XEL

260 MM REC barrels and 80 US$ global oil price = 1316p XEL

260 MM REC barrels and 100 US$ global oil price = 1839p XEL



But anyway, nots let get carried away until the oil flows on the test, then we can really get carried away.

News today, funding line increased from 20m to 40m to expedite first production.

All sounds very confident.

Strong buy and 247p "pre drill results" target much as before, the big question remains how big, on success, will the "post drill results" target be.....



http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/23023/broker-roundup-ferrexpo-xcite-energy-gulfsands-petroleum-ovoca-gold-deltex-medical-23023.html


Arbuthnot Securities analyst Dougie Youngson expected investors to respond positively to Xcite Energys (LON:XEL) decision to double the size of its equity draw-down facility.

According to Youngson, access to the additional capital provides enough working capital for Xcite to move into the development phase.

The analyst emphasised that Xcite is currently working on a flow test at the Bentley field, which will be crucial.
Youngson rates Xcite as a Strong Buy with a 247 target........

.

247 is where sp is already, so when was that note put out? ..... surely not yesterday ..... that would be akin to issuing a sell note will a raised target!

No cynic, the analyst said they will not raise the target price as now its a case of success or not.

What they said they will say its that its still a strong buy, even though it may rise over the target price.

In effect they are saying ignore the target price until results are out, its in effect a strong buy whatever the price in their opinion.

It would be terrible if this was not a big success but it looks good to me...not an expert in oil so just guessing but the pay zones to me look incredible.....can this not flow now ?.....I would say it will but ?......

that's a real politician's answer, hedged as one would expect so that if there is disappointment they'll claim "strong buy" was always predicated by a successful flowtest

I was hoping for some views ......sp slipping up....I think that this will be a success...

Here we go again.....rising rapidly.....

here's a view for you ..... thanks to the rise over the last weeks, i was preposterously o'weight in these and banked the very very nice profit on 25% at 253 ..... that technically still leaves me with far too many on the books, but to repeat yet again - i find it very uncomfortable that this is an MM stock only and therefore one cannot have any idea of the order position ..... it is also patently obvious that there is a huge long position built up in these, so come the rateflow announcement, it is very likely indeed that sp will drop back, perhaps significantly, on the news regardless of the quality of it ..... if the news is ace, as we all hope and perhaps expect, just maybe sp will race on up again without the retrenchment ..... do i care that i (will) have missed out on some of that ..... emotionally yes, a bit, but the head tells me that i was absolutely right

Well done cynic.

But I am still in and looking for 500p to 600p levels on good flow tests. Obviously you believe not or you would not sell and say you do not expect a big rise.

But I do expect a big rise on good news and so still in :)

there is such a thing as prudence and plain stupidity and overweaning greed ..... guess into which category your mentality falls

just as a small piece of interest .....
there are 10 x MM but all bid/offer in lumps of 5,000 only - that is standard for this stock
at time of writing ....
bid prices range between 250 and 258
offer prices range between 260 and 266

so cynic do you think Pros estmimates (545) are pie in the sky or that we are in for retrenchment before we potentially see those levels? Your point does make me pause for thought...

if i was that bloody clever i wouldn't be sitting here!
however, almost without exception punters on BBs get over-excited and have crazy ideas about sp prospects - RKH was a classic where certain people (no finger pointing) were touting the prospect of AT LEAST 650/750p - and that was without breaking wind! ..... when i suggested 450 was more realistic (i have no technical knowledge and do no research!), i was roundly booed by said pundits .... i note that sp is currently 305

with regard to XEL, i have no idea at all what flow level is required to justify the current price, let alone 500/600 as touted by a certain person ..... my GUESS is that the current level is sustainable and just may be there is a further 50p to go for in the immediate future - but that always assumes the flowtest is the bees knees and without caveats

it follows that, imo, it is highly likely that sp will indeed retrench after the RNS, but at what level it will be at that time is anyone's guess