Any experts out there with a view to todays RNS on Algerian gas find ?
Looks good to me but sp is down
Thanks in advance nr

CANTOR bought approx 500k shares in april, 500k in may, 3.7 million in august & 12.5m in september. As posted above, they have now bought 64m yesterday & 7.9m on the 6th Oct. Why was their rate of buying increased so dramatically?
It doesn't give me confidence that they are in it for any length of time.

if they just bought, which is what you say, and are not selling, what's your problem?

Because they have changed their tactics from slowly building a stake to getting in before the next rns. That would imply to me that they wish to benefit from imminent news, like myself, but my modest holding will not affect the sp when I sell.

so how do you know that they are not building a tactical stake for a potential bidder should "proper" news come through? ..... Actually, not entirely sure all the buys are such, for yesterday alone was about 15% of the company and no rns re holdings, though there is a window allowed

Hadn't thought of that one, cynic, but I remain cautious with this one.

I think its hard to sell 100 mil in one go . Would you have this amount of shares , if you thought pci were going no were ?

on pretty good authority, i have it that yesterday's purchases by Cantor Fitz were CFDs .... it is also not impossible, that there was a double recording ..... nevertheless, 1 x 64m = approx 7.5% of the company's share capital and would need to be notified.

i see an rns re man fin holding 5%, but i think this is a separate issue

This is what THIS IS MONEY had to say about the 65mill share trade,
Heavy turnover was recorded in Aim-listed Petroceltic, unmoved on 13p, as a total of 134m shares changed hands. This included a delayed trade in 65.6m shares as part of a put-through carried out at a tenth of a penny over the ruling price.
Two trades, six seconds apart, both for 65,669,919 one at 13p, one at 13.001p, a big rollover?

This is courtesy of panadin on ADVFN.

THE PHOENIX November 3, 2006
THE whole oil and gas exploration sector has taken a hammering on the stock exchange over the last three months
on the back of oil prices sinking 20%, from $75 a barrel of oil to the current price of just under $60 a barrel. This has
disproportionately affected investment sentiment. In virtually every case, any hydrocarbon discovery is profitable, with
prices of over $25 a barrel even if the oil is found in areas where production is expensive, as in deep offshore waters.

Petroceltic is currently drilling onshore in Algeria and has already hit and successfully flow tested gas from its Isas-One well and
has submitted a discovery declaration to the Government. It is also drilling a second back-to-back well in an adjoining Algerian
prospect and yet the shares have almost halved over the last four months to the current 18 cent level.
Petroceltic has $55m cash in the bank and is planning an even more active development programme from early next year. At the
18 cent level, the shares look a good gamble.
INTERESTING ASPECT.
Probably the most interesting aspect of Petroceltics Isarene exploration block in thehydrocarbon-prolific Illizi Basin in eastern Algeria, not far from the Libyan border, is that it is very large. It runs to over 10,000 square km, which is the equivalent of
over 40 North Sea blocks. It is just 50 miles south of the existing field operated by the French Total Oil Group,
which has proven up 8 trillion cubic feet of gas (five times larger than the Kinsale gas field) and 800m barrels of oil.
More recently, the Russian Rosneft Oil Group has made two oil and one gas discoveries immediately north east of
Petroceltics block.
Significantly, the Petroceltic Isarene Block has already had a substantial amount of work done on this, with over 7,000 km of
two dimensional seismic data and 16 wells drilled in the block.
Of these latter, 11 wells successfully tested for gas or oil. This drilling and seismic work has left the Isarene Block with
10 discovery blocks and 40 identified prospects. In its initial Algerian drilling programme, Petroceltic has sensibly focused on what it calls the fertile crescent in the north east of its Algerian block. This specific area has already been drilled six times and
Petroceltics recent drilling in September of the Isas-1 drill went down to a target depth of 2,750 m. This particular drilling
programme was targeted to test if the Devonian Horizon,which tested positive in three adjoining wells on this particular
prospect located 4, 8 and 10 km away, was also present on this Isas-1 drill. The fact that this was positive and less than 900
m down indicates that this gas horizon could be running throughout the whole of thisparticular prospect, up to 10km
wide, and that it potentially contains a large hydrocarbon reservoir. The fact that this well also tested positively for gas and
at the shallow carboniferous level, as well as deeper down in the Ordovician Horizon, adds to the possible prospects on
this block. More significantly, this lower Ordovician Horizon was also present in one of the wells drilled 10km north west
of Isas-1 and so could be really significant.
Petroceltics ceo, John Craven,has estimated that, on the basis of drilling to date and in particular the Isas-1 drill
completed in September, this particular part of north west crescent contains resources in place of 680 BCF and 128m
barrels of oil. At the established Algerian long term gas price of $5 per million cubic feet of gas and using a
75% recovery rate, Craven estimates that this gas is worth a gross well head value of $2.5bn and that on a basis
of a 25% recovery rate on the estimated oil reserve, this latter at current oil prices is worth $1.8bn, a combined
total gross well head value of $4.3bn. Given that this is only the estimate from the north east section of the Isarene
prospect, it gives some indication just how valuable this could be even after paying the costs of royalties and production
share.
GAMBLE.
It would be wrong, of course,to work share values off these estimates but at Petroceltics current share price of 18 cent, the company is capitalised at only 125m, which is 3% of the value of the possible reserves in the north east area of Petroceltics Algerian block. The estimates of possible reserves in the rest of the block bring the capitalisation down to well under 1% of the gross value.
Considering that Petroceltic had an interest free carry in its farmed out Tunisian Block and a 40% stake in an interesting Italian
prospect, this gives some real substance to Petroceltics current share price. With $55m cash in the bank raised during the
summer at a 50% higher price of 27 cent, the current share price makes these shares a more than interesting gamble but a gamble
nevertheless.

Nice write up swj .

red = 50 dma
gree = 200 dma


Hmm!

Please clarify "Hmm!"

insofar as charts have any meaning or influence, 50 dma could represent a resistance of unknown strength ...... be aware that prices will often tease above (below on a support) but fail to hold ...... Also note that 50 dma is still falling and the more potent 200 dma is only a little higher at +/-16.60 and flat

Thanks. Current sp is also influenced by prospect of imminent news, possibly, so a number of factors to consider.

hence "Hmm!" ..... lol!!

Petroceltic International PLC
07 November 2006



Petroceltic International plc ('Petroceltic' or the 'Company')

Holding in Company


The Company received a notification on 6th November 2006 from Cantor Fitzgerald
Europe ('Cantor') stating that Cantor has an interest in and is the registered
holder of 67,969,919 ordinary shares which represents 9.21 per cent* of the
Company's issued ordinary share capital.


* This percentage shareholding is based on a shares in issue figure of
737,327,818 ordinary shares.


Dublin: 7th November 2006




This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

Davy Research today
Starting Points 10 November 2006

Price 15p Target: 26.0p Issued: 13/10/06 Previous: 27.0p Issued: 31/08/06
On November 9 th , Petrofac announced that it had acquired a 45% share in a 50
BCF gas field offshore Tunisia. This transaction values developed North African gas
at $2.20 per mcf. Plugging this value into our model for Petroceltic returns a risk-weighted
value of 42p per share for the company's entire portfolio. This implies
upside of a whopping 185% on todays share price. Petroceltics North African gas
assets are dominated by its interest in the Isarene licence in Algeria.
The value in the Petrofac deal in part relates to the price at which gas will be sold.
The transaction allows for gas to be sold at a price linked to FOB Med fuel oil
prices which, according to our analysis, averaged $37 per barrel or $6.2 per mcf
in the past 12 months. This is comparable to international gas prices.
If Petroceltic is able to market its share of Algerian gas along similar lines, this
should be more accurately reflected in its valuation and the stock should be re-rated.
It is interesting to note that this week First Calgary agreed with Sonatrach,
the Algerian state oil company, that it would market gas from its Algerian licence
at prices linked to European fuel prices.
Petroceltic is currently drilling its second well on the Isarene licence in Algeria.
Drilling operations are expected to be completed in November.

A new member of staff , news on drill cannot be far away .

Nice sea of blue , tick up soon ?

What is to be made of the last rns ?