Results out 6/12/2007/ Promises are positive.

Projected earnings are reasonable.

But DYOH

Micro Focus International plc

Response to press speculation



In response to recent press speculation and share price movement, the Board of Micro FocusInternational plc ("Micro Focus" or "the Company", LSE: MCRO.L) confirms that it has received a very preliminary, non-binding approach in relation to a possible offer for the Company.

The Board is currently considering its response to the approach. There is no certainty that any formal offer for the Company will be forthcoming nor as to the price at which any offer might be made.



As a result of this approach the Company is suspending its buyback programme until further notice.

We live in interesting times.

Now a question of the take out price.

450, do I hear?

be very very careful
the approach is currently tentative and even if a bid is tabled, it is worth remembering that many fail to conclude

%%0!!

Nice to see you again.

How are ye.

Indeed. On the other hand, the move may prompt others to enter the fray.

As always DYOR, reach your own conclusions and act upon them.

OK thanks, Fred. Nice weather for the time of year!!!!

my conclusion is to leave alone though if i was already a holder at a (much) lower price i just might add a few

Anyone looking at this might care to check on-line max buy/sell sizes.

Selftrade earlier cut back to 2250 max to sell, now down to a beggarly 500.

Buyers beware! Or is it a neat "mind game" playing way of discouraging new buyers??????

don't give a toss about selftrade ..... this stock is very liquid and tradeable on L2 as a true market in whatever size you wish - i.e. it's not even just an MM stock

I am removing ALL my research from here due to the constant personal abuse, defamation and distortions of it posted by:

ptholden

hlyeo98

halifax

blackdown

kimoldfield

cynic


This bunch of abusive retards is the reason MoneyAM will NEVER have a forum worth reading.

I have reported them to support by they do nothing, either because they want to force me to PAY them for the Traders Room or because they are too lazy to do anything. Maybe the people in support are the ones perpetrating the abuse, so as to force people to pay for the premium boards. Either way the service is sh1te and a disgrace to the finance industry. No wonder there is nobody left here apart from morons.

I will continue posting my good research on boards that are run in accordance with FSA and LSE listing rules and the interests of the market, not here where ar5eh0les rule the boards and all decent research is buried under their piles of sh1te.

Holders' declarations are coming through now. Worth noting that more are being shown on a certain other site than MAM......

Bain Capital is Micro Focus's mystery suitor
American private equity firm Bain Capital is the mystery suitor that has approached UK software company Micro Focus International about a potential 890m takeover.

By Ben Harrington 9:57PM BST 28 Apr 2011

Earlier this week, Micro Focus said "it has received a very preliminary, non-binding approach in relation to a possible offer for the company".
Micro Focus International

The approach is understood to have come from Bain Capital. It is thought Bain's original approach was pitched at 338p a share but the private equity firm could be willing to pay up to 450p a share.
Micro Focus, which updates computer systems and tests software, said: "It is currently considering its response to the approach."
However, it warned: "There is no certainty that any formal offer for the company will be forthcoming nor as to the price at which any offer might be made."
It is thought the private equity firm's approach could entice other parties to make a counter-bid.

"It will be interesting to see if this very preliminary discussion flushes out any other buyers and whether the strategic value arguments around modernisation in particular, really stand up," said analysts at broker Peel Hunt.
Trade buyers Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft, Oracle and IBM have all been tipped as potential buyers of Micro Focus in the past. Other private equity firms, such as Duke Street, may also be interested.

Micro Focus shares, which gained 13 to 371p on Thursday, have declined significantly over the past 12 months.
In part, this is because in February the company said overall revenues in the three months to the end of January 2011 were below management expectations. Revenues were weaker than expected as a number of large deals at the end of the quarter were deferred or lost, with North America being particularly weak.
The poor performance led to the resignation of Nigel Clifford, chief executive. Kevin Loosemore, non-executive chairman since 2005, became executive chairman. At the time, Mr Loosemore said: "My immediate priority is to deliver the year-end in line with shareholder expectations."
Analysts, though, are worried the company may yet miss market forecasts when it delivers its next set of figures. Broker Peel Hunt said: "We are reaching the nail-biting end of year."
Last year Bain bought SkillSoft, an Irish provider of e-learning software, for $1.2bn (721m).

Collins Stewart note out today:
This mornings pre-close update, brought forward from the scheduled release date of 12 May, will provide much relief. It confirmed that revenue and EBITDA for the year to 30 April will be in line with current market consensus and the range signalled on 15 February ($432-442m of revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $159-167m). Our estimates of $436m and $161m respectively are within this range but we were not alone in worrying that even these numbers might prove a stretch given the execution problems over the past few months. For all its recurring revenue, Micro Focus remains a very back-end weighted business and so hitting the Q4 target, albeit a significantly lowered one from six months ago, must be regarded as welcome news.
Fundamental value vs. takeout value
We believe that this mornings news, combined with the recent, more shareholder-aligned management remuneration structure, warrants an increase in fundamental fair value for Micro Focus. Our target price increases from 321p to 358p accordingly, equating to 10x 2012 earnings. If Bain Capital, or another financial or trade bidder, comes through with a formal offer for Micro Focus, we believe that more than 425p, or 8x 2012 EBITDA, would be a bonus. Given the lack of growth and structural issues, we do not expect a bidding war but recent M&A activity suggests that rational expectations are often irrelevant. In the meantime, we would advocate holding on for something north of 400p at least.

Up nearly 6% on reasonable volume in 30 mins of trading.
Hopefully the w/e will see a firm offer on the table.

with sp now hovering just below 400, risk/reward does not favour a new investment ...... 10% is a typical time/risk discount once a bid is tabled, so simple arithmetic

Update on potential offer and recent press speculation
Further to the announcement of 26 April 2011 and recent press speculation, the Board of Micro Focus International plc confirms that it has received a number of preliminary, non-binding approaches which it has chosen to explore (including approaches from Bain Capital and Advent International). At this stage there can be no certainty that any offer for the Company will be forthcoming nor as to the price at which any offer might be made.

This announcement has been made without the consent of Bain Capital and Advent International.

A further announcement will be made as appropriate.

Heres the note from Matrix:
We stick with the view that 450-455p is a realistic bid level. This would represent 13.4x CY11E earnings, 12.5x CY12E, ie. in line with Micro Focuss trading multiple aside from its particular periods of weakness around trading disappointments. Consolidation platform? We believe Micro Focus would represent an attractive consolidation platform for a private player looking to consolidate the fragmented legacy modernisation software market. The companys large (52% of rev) and sticky maintenance base at high margin offers a recurring cash flow stream that can be geared up against more aggressively in private hands, and the groups cash generation profile (FCF yield 9%) provides a valuation backstop.

BarCap saying much the same.
Our price target of 418p assumes very low revenue growth this calendar year and mid single digit growth next year. We are forecasting a small earnings decline for calendar 2011 but above mid single digit EPS growth in 2012. We consider our estimates cautious because of the well publicized internal problems that the company has experienced over the past year. However, we like the business model and believe with the right management the companys internal issues can be turned around, which could imply performance above our expectations. Under our current assumptions and the price target of 418p the stock would trade on 11.5x 2012 P/E vs the software group median of 15x. Maintain 1-Overweight, price target 418p.

Milan Radia at Jefferies urges caution:
Micro Focus revealed takeover discussions on 26 April, but is there enough synergy opportunity or hidden value in the company to ultimately make a transaction sensible? The cash flow profile will always create temptation, but sadly this comes accompanied by considerable baggage in the form of management discontinuity, failed acquisitions and declining end-markets. Recent share option-related activity appears ill-timed. We remain wary. Our detailed note is attached and takes a look at the fundamental growth issues that the business faces, together with analysis of the poor acquisition history.

hence what i wrote in 55

The market seemed to take a more optimistic view yesterday.

There is a theory that, even though it might be slightly unethical, the purchase of shares by the directors just before an approach was announced will possibly ensure that a deal goes through. Will the directors want to be left with a load of shares which will fall in value if a deal is not done? Just hope it all gets sorted out before the FSA says 'foul'.