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http://en.mercopress.com/2012/01/22/falklands-confirms-second-oil-rig-has-reached-the-islands-spudding-planned-for-monday

Sunday, January 22nd 2012 - 05:44 UTC

Falklands confirms second oil rig has reached the Islands; spudding planned for Monday

Falklands oil industry sources confirmed that the semi-submersible Leiv Eiriksson oil exploration rig has reached Falklands’ waters and should be spudding its first well next Monday.


“Yes, she’s here and getting ready for Monday. She’s a real nice state of the art baby” said the Falklands sources.

Early in the day the Buenos Aires press quoting sources at Argentina’s Defence and Foreign Affairs ministries said that the oil rig flagged in Bahamas and contracted by Borders & Southern Plc and Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd (FOGL) had been detected approaching Malvinas waters.

The rig is expected to begin drilling next week two wells to the south and southeast of the Malvinas Islands.

According to the Buenos Aires media the rig was spotted by a maritime routine flight from an Orion P3-B belonging to the Argentina Air Naval service which took pictures of the vessel while sailing 547 miles east of Comodoro Rivadavia.

Apparently these maritime air patrols are routine as part of Argentina, together with South Africa, international responsibility to safeguard human lives and shipping in the vast South Atlantic.

The Buenos Aires press reported that the two exploratory wells to be drilled for Borders & Southern Plc are “very close to the Argentine 200 miles continental platform outer limit”.

Since the announcement November 2010 of the contracting of the Leif Eiriksson, “several Argentine offices among them the Malvinas and South Atlantic Desk at the Foreign Affairs ministry (Ambassador Sebastian Brugo Marcó) and the Office of Strategic Intelligence from the Ministry of Defence (Lourdes Puente de Lopez Llovet)”, began tracking the course of the rig from Greenland to the Falklands, with the help of shipping webs in the internet that show maritime traffic worldwide.

So far two other oil companies have been involved in the current round of exploratory drilling in Falklands’ waters which started in 2010: Desire Petroleum and Rockhopper Exploration Plc. Between them they have drilled over twenty wells with the ‘Ocean Guardian’ exploratory rig which left for Scotland in mid January.

Both companies found traces of oil and gas in several wells, but the real promising commercial discovery was done at the Sea Lion prospect where Rockhopper estimates there are 500 million barrels of good light crude.

However to undertake such a task, estimated in over two billion dollars, Rockhopper contracted Bank of America-Merrill Lynch to help find an investor that is interested in sharing such a promising potential.

All this with the background of the escalating conflict between London and Buenos Aires, which according to Argentine sources makes the whole operation even more risky since there is “an ongoing unsolved sovereignty dispute, with ample support for Argentina from neighbouring countries”.

suggest you all read the long ST article kindly posted by marky on the the RKH thread ... and also my subsequent comment

from that ST article .....

Two companies — Falkland Oil and Gas and Borders and Southern — have raised tens of millions to explore an area south of the islands (Rockhopper is in the north). Argos Resources, another London listed firm, has plans to drill wells on a separate block in the northern basin. Their chances of success are remote.

sounds ambiguous until you study the English ...... the writer means that chances of success are remote for all 3 companies mentioned and not just Argos

Yes, the chances of RKH finding oil were remote too, which is why I was in them at 38p and sold them at 300p :)


:))

Its also why FOGL is 54p and the unrisked upside of Loligo is 8900p (yes 89 pounds).

:)

When things are remote it discounted into the price - but if they hit oil it all comes flowing in :)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9030392/Offshore-oil-drilling-in-South-Atlantic-could-lead-to-North-Sea-style-boom.html

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none of us care one jot whether or not you made a mint on rkh as you repeatedly claim (protesting too much perhaps) .... however, it is indisputable that rkh have found a decent amount of oil that may be commercial in its own right, and a number of other companies which currently survive solely on hype and hope .... if (and it is a mighty big if) a good strike is indeed made in the southern basin, then the whole dynamic of FI changes .... thus, the brave MAY want to take a modest punt here and there, or those who are more conservative will probably be better served by sticking with rkh, or none in the region at all

I have been in FOGL since 2007 (in and out) and it is easy to get blinded by news articles and hope!! And Cynic has in the past made some good points, I still feel there is money to be made out of FOGL/RKH but there are no absolutes in this game hence buy low sell high!! ;- )))) Hi cynic are you still in POG ?

seems i bought back into POG on 18/1 .... with regard to FI stocks, i have modest amounts of rkh (now showing good profit) and also (very recently) fogl and bord

Good luck with RKH, One I never got ..Stuck with FOGL

Rig is on the move now, heading off to Darwin to get into location and ready to spud for BOR.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/shipdetails.aspx?MMSI=308243000

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24 hours to go to get into position for BOR's Darwin.

Depending on weather of course !!

Probably going to try to stop (short term anyway) RKH from moving any further, to deter any farm in interest.

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/07/cristina-fernandez-expected-to-make-major-announcement-on-falklands-and-oil

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Much ado about nothing, she did not even attempt to cancel the weekly flight from Chile.

The major announcement seems to be that she is not happy and very very frustrated and unable to do anything, therefore she is going to lump the problem on the UN (eg I am deflecting all Argentines to look to the UN who already are very clear on the Falklands and will do nothing) and then can walk away from this little hot pot and her ramping statements about getting them back which she used to get elected and stopped people looking at the terrible economic conditions in which they now live - and can now sit back and point at the UN being useless and not her as BOR and FOGL drill for oil and RKH try to farm out.

EG, looks like she has given up for now - and can you blame her. State of the art T45 destroyer there, nuclear submarine, planes and soldiers - no chance for invasion - US interest in Falklands assets, BOR and FOGL drilling, RKH farming out - everything moving ahead fast - does she want to be seen being the leader that let this all happen after telling her people she would get them back in 2012 ? or is she going to be super slippery now and deflect it all over to the UN by talking about their involvement............... I'll let you guess.

Some large multi-million trades in there today.

Extremely ODD (for me anyway) trading pattern at 15.20

The trades are all buy sell buy, with interesting combinations. Can anyone provide more info on the market makers actions here.

I either see market volume boosting, and other pattern disguising your selling by putting in a vert small buy order for each sell, all at the smae price.....

The price went up, which means if anything someone was hiding their buying (not the selling).

At this stage of the game you will see hedge trading, so while BOR is a long a lot of people will be selling FOGL and shorting it as a counter hedging trade (so if BOR fails you win a little with a FOGL short - and if BOR hits you lose a little of your profit on the FOGL short).

Also at this stage we have seen a lot of people taking profit on BOR, so this is why the shareprice has gone sideways for some time - as people sell and derisk and take profit before results.

We are not perhaps 25 to 35 days from the result of Darwin - a very robust target. Of that there is perhaps 20 to 25 trading days.

So its now time for the gamblers and hot money to start coming into BOR, and we should see in the coming weeks plenty of buying in ahead of the drill results.

If you have a short on FOGL and BOR strikes lucky : you lose your shirt on FOGL....you might as well not bother....how do you reason this out ?....you cannot guess how the sp's will react...in my experience things drop like a stone and you then get stopped out at the bottom, way past your stoploss.....very dangerous game with cfds or spreads.....you'd be lucky to get out in time....you can be sure that your trade will be delayed....

RF - for BOR's Darwin drill.


If BOR strike BOR will go up 300% to 400% in the following days/weeks.

If BOR strike FOGL will go up 100% to 150%.

So a short on FOGL will mean your overall gain would be limited to 150% to 250% (BOR gain - FOGL gain).

Actually most people will close their FOGL short during the initial 50% spike and so it would be closed earlier and so the BOR gain would be bigger)

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If BOR fail they will fall 50%.

If BOR fail FOGL will fall 25%.

So a short on FOGL will cut your losses on BOR by 50% (BOR loss - FOGL short gain).


Hedging by "pair trading" is what it is called - look it up.