http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

cheers GF.

CP, Indian marriage season coming up in April, only problem is they are skint like everyone else around the world. Tend to find Gold rises when this season kicks off, but from what ive heard from a few indian lads who live by me is that plat and diamonds are now being exchanged and recycling is the name of the game.

Not so sure if we will get this great rally some are thinking of.

Physical demand dwarfs speculative demand % wise, so it could be a bad year all round.

Not a good day for POG. two-thirds of trades were buys,but 48 point fall.
Anybody know why?

cp
shouldnt the question come before the answer?
gold daily is suggesting a H&S top. not completed yet though although looks very threatening.
regards
jkd

cp
;-)
regards
jkd

This is worth a read chaps and more or less in line with what I was saying earlier...

Gold rush could presage crash

Ceri Jones
11.03.09 10:03


The price of gold broke through the magic $1,000 an ounce barrier at the end of February, and although it fell back last week to $907 after investors took profits, the world and his dog are advocating that gold prices will continue to rise over the long-term.

One big driver of demand is gold's perceived value as a hedge against inflation at a time when money supply in the western world is soaring and threatens to shrink the value of currencies in circulation. Last week's move by the Bank of England will amount to 75 billion of easing in the next few months, part of 150 billion sanctioned by the Chancellor, which is equal to some 10% of UK GDP. The US has doubled its money supply in the last seven years, and in Europe it is at a 30-year high.

The other big driver is that new sources of gold are genuinely scarce. The leading gold mining nation, South Africa, has halved its annual output since 1998. The days of finding marble-sized nuggets in California are long gone, with most of the world's remaining gold existing only as traces in difficult regions.

Gold bulls therefore have a lot to support their argument that metal's price will continue to rise - as well as circumstantial evidence such as record withdrawals from banks, runs on supplies of gold coins, record volumes of trade in exchange traded funds and the sheer tangibility of the metal at a time when banking products can seem opaque.

There are two huge flaws in the bull arguments, however. The first is the contention that growth in demand will continue to come from jewellery sales in emerging markets.

Jewellery still accounts for two thirds of all gold demand, with India the world's largest consumer, devouring about one fifth of the world's supply, twice as much as China and the US. It is central to the 10 million weddings that take place in India every year, mostly in April and May, as part of the transactions that take place between families, and this accounts for the regular, annual pattern of price rises early in the year before falling back later in the summer.

This year, however, Indian imports have ground to a standstill. Figures from the Bombay Bullion Association figures reveal that gold imports to India dropped to 1.8 tons in January 2009 against the 18 tons in the same period last year, and fell back to almost zilch in February. Overall, demand for jewellery plummeted by 17% between the third and fourth quarters of 2008, according to the World Gold Council, and this trend will likely intensify in the coming months as the recession deepens.


Paying a high price
The reality is that the combination of high prices and the effects of the credit crunch encourages people to sell precious items they already own, and in many cultures have put aside explicitly as a store of wealth. Less significantly, there are also the beginnings of a trend for Asian upper classes and younger people to switch to diamonds and platinum.

The second flaw in the bull argument is that demand will continue to be driven by investors seeking a safe haven asset. This is not the all-important factor commonly thought, as ten times more of the gold mined is used for jewellery than is hoarded in bars or exchange traded funds.

Demand for gold as an alternative safe investment has anyway probably passed its peak. Fear that the US Government will nationalise some of its largest banks is now receding, and this has manifest itself for example in a slowdown into gold exchange traded funds. The big New York-listed SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) remained static for a fifth consecutive session last week.

The predicament of rival safe havens, notably the Swiss franc and the yen, also conspired to push gold up recently. These currencies traditionally benefit from low interest rates, but as rates have been slashed around the globe, they compare less well with the precious metal.

"Aggressive interest rate cuts around the world have weighed on these currencies, and cut the opportunity cost of purchasing and holding gold," says Fredrik Nerbrand, Head of Global Strategy at HSBC Private Bank. "Also, as Japan and Switzerland have economies that rely heavily on their banking systems, it seems that their defensive qualities appear diminished during this financial crisis where banks have come under pressure, as opposed to an international political crisis, for example."

One of the oddities of the lust for gold is the mistaken belief that it is relatively stable. In fact, it has a similar level of volatility as equities - a 30-day volatility of 20.6% compared with 30% for equities, according to Nerbrand's analysis of the MSCI World Index.

By and large, investors have been waiting for President Obama's financial reforms to deal with the crippled economy, parking money in gold simply until they direct it back into equity markets. The super-wealthy sheikhs and hedge funds will be first to identify better ways of using their cash. The price could then drop dramatically, just as last year oil collapsed from $147 a barrel in July to $40 in November.

Arguably, too, while the fiscal stimuli may be prompting fears of inflation, concern should be focussed on deflation, which will drag gold down. Workers everywhere are accepting reduced working hours and even reduced wages to make firms competitive and ward off redundancies as unemployment rises. Several forward swap markets show expectations of deflation, while Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last week told the Senate that a fall in consumer and producer prices is expected to last a few years.

All this, of course, assumes that the markets and the financial system will recover in the next few years. If that takes decades, then the price may fall back this year, only to resume a long-term upward trend.

Meanwhile, the next few weeks will be well worth watching. The Hindu festival of Akshaya Tritiya is considered the most auspicious day to buy gold in the Hindu calendar. Anticipation of this day usually nudges up the price, and this year the festival falls on 27 April.

Well thankfully for us gold bulls the fed comes along and conveniently devalues the dollar, through QE and it will continue to have to do so. Eventually repatriation of dollars will slow, foreign investment will begin to weaken the dollar as it flows back out, fiscal stimulus will be too little as strong dollar recently will hurt US exports further weakening currency, more stimulus from helicopter Ben will be needed.

ETF demand is more than offsetting jewelry slow down and China and Russia are hinting at diversification, they are treading a very fine line and will want to be hedging their dollars.

Commodities will increase in dollar terms and inflation fears will hit home. I believe we've seen the bottom at 885 today, got very close to my stop at 880, but thankfully went long at 885 today so very happy.

I expect POG and RRS will shoot up 5-10% over next couple of days, recent bull trend is restored and high may be retested soon.

Re deflation, it can be argued that it has just the same effect on gold sp as it is still percieved as being a better store of value even in a deflationary environment, so when fear is around or inflationary pressures gold will outperform it is the only true money (plus the other precious metals).

I'm piling into POG and RRS tommorrow for a quick buck. You can't inflate the money supply this much and expect solid assets like gold to fall, personally this is a no brainer for me, it might take a few more months before it really takes off but I'm convinced it will.

However the ride is bloody turbulent 90 dollars of movement today, you need a long stop loss if you are playing this

s
it is true what you say. the potential daily h&S top i mentioned earlier seems not to have confirmed. non confirmation can be one of two things, either wrong or delayed. lets wait and see, fortunately i do like to wait for confirmation mostly. sure , i do sometimes try to anticipate and get a head start, but usually and mostly when i do this i find i am invariably proven to be wrong, as i would have been in this instance. it seems it is at present wrong but not yet proven wrong on a delayed basis. anyway im neutral/ bearish but positioned flat but interested to see what happens. my view is more truly bearish/ neutral.
just watching for time being, for techies failed hss often but not always turn into
something else so worth watching for, not many people know that,
regards
jkd

Agree could still turn, central banks will make a effort to suppress price, I've taken my profit on todays lucky trade! But will watch carefully, I expect at some point we will retest 885 and possibly even get down to 850, if it goes there which it might do in the early summer I'll be diving in again in a big way.

Tech view H&S pattern was looking ominous, hence sell off today to a degree, could argue double top on a broader picture but personally I see this as consolidation before moving on and breaking out.

Eventually the central banks will run out of gold and the game will be up up up and away!!

reading my previous comments, just shows how sentiment changes in the market place, changed my mind within an hour!! As cyners says never wrong to take a profit, seen too many evaporate in my brief trading times.

Blimey steve that was a quick reversal, mind looking upwards i can see why.

best of luck.

So much for the trading manuals and books which preach let your profits run.

Blimey if id have done that since nov 2008 i wouldnt have made a penny profit on any trades.

Its all about taking it off the table when it feels right especially if youve had a quick run up.

PRU was a case on monday a quick rise of 10% and I was out. Must have taken all of 2 hours and then it stated to pull back and fell away completly today.

Steveo - RRS gapped up overnight as far as I can see!!! Closed at 30, opened at 34. No chance.

didn't get in to RRS or POG due to gap, did buy back into gold sp as Asia virtually always sells after a good jump up, so didn't lose out and made a bit more.

so while it's good to let profits run, it's even better to make them run over the same ground twice!!
will try the same tonight at 950, possible short term support at 941

GF as you might be able to tell I've never read a trading manual, learnt by my mistakes and fallen prey to the cardinal sin, taking profit too early and letting losses run.

while it may look like I'm doing it again, there is a definite pattern in gold sp trading that happens more often than not in these circumstances over the the last 18 months. Although I did miss out on Russia adding a month ago. Only time I can think it went up over night after US closed in last month.

It would seem it's following that pattern again tonight

Cheers steve thats an interesting insight.

Although would've missed out last night as set buy order at 948, thankfully as I'd been to the pub I hit the wrong button and bought at 955!!

Might get myself a trading manual, can you recommend one?!?

edit


Two very recent Broker BUY notes out show that the City are now warming to POG and the enlarged company.

The stock trades on a miserly concensus P/E of 4.3 going forward to results in 2009.

Peter Hambro Mining PLC

FORECASTS
2008 2009

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Investec Securities
18-03-09 BUY 68.41 55.84 16.15 93.26 63.59 16.15

Fairfax IS
16-03-09 BUY

METALS STOCKS

Gold rallies 8% as Fed move fuels inflation fears

By Moming Zhou & Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:27 p.m. EDT March 19, 2009

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-jumps-above-950-ounce/story.aspx?guid={D83BE452-2CFE-4150-AB39-44E1412C3B0E}

BROKER NEWS Peter Hambro, Lonmin and Intl Ferro Metals rated top three mining sector buys by Fairfax

Long term that's probably right but short term not so sure.
Has the ORE deal gone through & been paid for yet? Aricom had suspended ore shipments indefinitely due to a lack of demand, so presumably that will reflect in POG's figures at some point, plus the cash reserves will have been reduced.