Red Emperor (RMP LN) (18p) BUY
Update Price target: 65p
Oil & Gas 17 May 2012
Well Test the Next Step
The confirmation that the 12 – 20m of net pay will be flow tested is a positive
step on the road to declaring Shabeel commercial. Not only does this suggest
that the region is a hydrocarbon province, but it also says that the accumulation
is in excess of 100mm bbl. We are maintaining our 65p target and BUY
recommendation.
• You Only Appraise a Discovery – This Good News is Buried: Announcing that you
are going to test a formation usually follows the declaration of a discovery – nowhere in
these series of announcements has the word “discovery” been mentioned. The
disclosure that the participants will test the Jesomma sands (Upper Cretaceous), and
what this means to the owners of Shabeel’s participant companies, should have been
made clearer. By peppering the text with anodyne “tech-speak,” this announcement
has not only failed to adequately draw attention to the positive steps, i.e. that a
potentially commercial discovery has been made, but it has been so opaque that it
leaves readers with the feeling that the main focus of the announcement is the lack of
interest in the deeper Jurassic horizons.
• This is Not the End of the Appraisal Process: There is currently insufficient data on
Shabeel’s Upper Cretaceous Jesomma sands, and more work is required before
anybody can opine on the asset’s commerciality. Irrespective of the announcement’s
opacity, given the amount of work required to precipitate the decision to undertake a
well test, especially in such a remote location, it indicates that the operator has
observed a significant body of evidence to suggest that the potential reward that could
flow from mobilising equipment to site is worth the effort.
• Will it be big enough to cross the 100mm bbl Threshold?: There has been much
speculation as to what size of field would be commercial as a standalone development,
with the general consensus indicating that it is approximately 100mm bbl. Given that
the predrill estimates were for 300mm bbl of recoverable from Shabeel and Shabeel
North, the fact that we have 12 – 20m of net pay indicates that the Company is still on
track to achieve this; we estimate that Shabeel could contain up to 100mm bbl.
• Well Test Boosts Regional Prospectivity: While this news has understandably not
been well received by the market, the well test raises the prospectivity of the region,
especially as one of the key risks has been whether there are any hydrocarbons. While
the Company waits for the testing equipment to arrive in Puntland, the rig will be
mobilised to the Shabeel North drill location, where the Company’s participation will
give it a 20% interest in the Dharoor and Nugaal blocks.
• Red Emperor is sufficiently funded for its medium-term goals: Following the recent
capital raising, we estimate that the Company is now sufficiently well-funded to meet its
near to medium term obligations, which are comprised of wells in Puntland and
Georgia; the Company’s revised Georgian programme offers the investor an interesting
offset to the exploration risk elsewhere in its portfolio.
• Reiterate BUY and 65p Target Price: While the news that the deeper horizons were
not considered a suitable candidate for further appraisal is disappointing, the decision
to take the next step towards testing the Upper Cretaceous is positive, not only for
Shabeel, but also the region as a whole.
This is a marketing communication. It has not been prepared
http://www.fox-davies.com/media/31209/rmplnflashnote170512.pdf