Dragon Oil plcs principal production and exploration interests are located in the Cheleken Contract Area in the Caspian Sea, offshore Turkmenistan. The Cheleken Contract Area covers approximately 950 sq.kms and comprises two offshore oil and gas fields, Dzheitun (LAM) & Dzhygalybeg (Zhdanov), in water depths of 10 to 37 metres.

            Red = 25 day moving average.           Green = 200 day moving average.

yip.......and ENOC dont have the money or else they bid by now.......82$ recently, lol i think it was 60$ when they mentioned bid 5 months ago

and if anyone else wants to bid, then they will have to persuade ENOC to part with their shares ...... the question remains as to how much, if at all, the current sp is supported by the possibility of a bid coming from ENOC, or from anyone else for that matter

haha i squelched that old fool cynic with his stupid childish inane comments.....he's missed most of the rocketing shares this year. back to work for him.....or not as the case

she'll be missed like bubonic plague

My formula says the bid should be recalculated. Above 5 can be a good start.

the theory may be great, but at the end of the day, it is a matter of how much someone is prepared to pay ...... for the moment, am happy to have banked the profit, but shall continue to watch

Cynic ; check out XEL.....would like your view on there if you have the time...thanks.

Latest Goodbody report,

"Dragon Oil; Steady Progress

While the investment case surrounding Dragon continues to be overshadowed by the lack of clarity regarding ENOCs intentions, at an operating level events continue to demonstrate progress. Of note within the statement is the fact that capex ($56m in Q3) continues to undershoot, while production (46.1 kbopd v our Q3 estimate of 44.0 kbopd) overshoots. With production trending ahead, and expectations of a four-rig complement early next year, confidence in our FY10 projection of 52.0 kbopd is reinforced.

Post the IMS, adjustments to our 2009 and 2010 earnings projections are at the margin (+2% in both years), with the increase in FY09 gross production (from 44.4 to 45.1 kbopd) and realised price (from $64.4 to $69.0 per barrel) counteracted to a large extent by a lower forecast percentage entitlement.

That said, forecast net cash at the end of 2009 and 2010 increases by 12% and 15% respectively as we have shaved $50m in each year from our prior capex estimates due to the slower pace of infrastructure spend. With net cash at the end of September of $962m, we now expect Dragon to exit the year with c.$1bn in net cash (equivalent to 29% of the current market cap.). That has positive implications for our NAV with Core NAV rising from 478.6p to 494.1p, while Total NAV increases from 581.6p to 597.0p.

The pending arrival of additional rigs and a rising oil price continue to provide confidence in production growth. Combine that growth potential with the obvious value (EV/BOE of $3.85, compared to typical take-out multiples in
the range of $10 - $12 per boe) and we see no reason to alter our positive stance. Our price target, which remains pegged to Core NAV (i.e oil production only), nudges up from 470p to 495p.

The signing of a gas sales agreement, which we anticipate at some stage in 2010, however, would highlight the value within its gas resource (3.2 TCF) and suggest a price target more in line with Total NAV. As such, we view our current target as conservative given progress in terms of oil production and the latent value within its gas resource and maintain our BUY recommendation."
cyril

OFFER IS 455P.
cyril

I'm out at 446.25p.
cyril

a disgrace but if thats it then what more can one do.......thieving emirate b??????

this was my one main long term investment for next 5 years

Not exactly a fantastic offer.....I sold out earlier around 4.2 so haven't missed much...if the offer had been 5 : I would have been kicking myself.

RF .... totally agree with you ..... the offer was actually a bit more than i expected, and i had doubts that it would materialise at all ...... the "bitter and twisted one" lives in cloud-cuckoo land and is totally incapable of taking on board that an asset is only worth as much as someone else is willing to pay .... that really is such a basic in life, so how come this "investment brain of britain" (or so she keeps telling us all) doesn't understand it?

even small increases give me much more profit as i have a lot invested on this......this was my banker......hence why i'm a bit peeved......in several years this would be 8 quid easy and probably more

Marni : you might as well sell now and say goodbye to Dragon Oil like Emerald Energy and Burren Energy and move on to pastures new...hardly any point of hanging on for a few more pennies !.

hey, i'll save by not paying commission as well! thats another 12 quid or so!

a few more pennies is quite a bit of money to me......a few hundred quid at least....more than that idiot cynic makes on his deals that make his big profits.

oh.....enoc pretending to be god guys.....455p when compared to 338p but that was in june when oil sp was much lower and dgo production up more now and many more wells to be done.....plus gas monetisation plus turkmenistan is open to china and europe now

i wont be agreeing to it anyway just to stuff up their majority stats.

only a few 00??? ..... so much for holding huge slabs of stocks A,B,C through X,Y,Z!

some news for rf and cyril as about only 2 on this board.........

Dragon recommends ENOC bid at 455p. Passes significant
value to ENOC. RAISE TARGET PRICE TO 805p to reflect
independent value, recommend shareholders to hold out
Dragon Oil has announced that it has reach agreement with Emirates National Oil
Company for a full bid for the remaining 48.5% of the company at 455p in cash, which
the Independent Committee of Dragon Oil will recommend. The bid values Dragon at
$2880m including the $962m in cash at the end of October, at $1.64=1. This gives a
value of $9.73 per barrel on Dragons Net Entitlement reserves of 296mb, and we
estimate $5.55 per boe including contingent gas reserves.
While the detail of the offer document highlights the premium against previous
benchmarks (11% to Fridays close, 34.6% to the 338p the day before the bid was
announced and 65.1% to the 30day average before the announcement), we think this
level of bid passes too high a proportion of future value to ENOC, and represents a
level that ENOC can afford to pay NOT what the stock is worth.
Even at a highly attractive 20% return to ENOC, we estimate Dragon at 540p based on
our model of the long term cash flows of both crude and gas production, a model which
has been seen by Dragon and the logic confirmed.
We think the background of financial constraint in Dubai is constraining ENOCs ability
to finance a deal at fair price, and it is going ahead with a bid at this level in the hope
that it may pull it off. The problem for them is that for approval, ENOC require 90% of
the minority shareholders to confirm the offer; with ENOC already at 51.5%, this means
that need to get around 95% of the full shareholding, and given the share structure,
opposition by just a few of the larger shareholders would be enough to block approval.
We believe ENOC is the only deal in town for now and would not expect an alternative
company to bid. Nor do we expect ENOC to raise their offer to anything like we see as
fair value. Which leaves investors with the options of taking cash now at a substantial
discount to fair value, or holding on for the long term value of Dragons cash flows.
These cash flows are from proven reserves on existing production at reasonable terms,
which we see as a very attractive proposition. At a 12% discount rate, we estimate the
value of Dragons cash flows as equivalent to 805p per share.
We think obstruction of the bid has two benefits for shareholders: 1) it captures more of
the fair value of Dragons reserves and 2) it may initiate a reversal of ENOCs position
and allow another company to look at Dragon. If we are correct in assuming ENOC
(and Dubai) are cash constrained (and the length of time taken on this supports this), it
is arguable that an attractive offer from a third party should be taken seriously.
Please note that NCB is not advising either ENOC or Dragon oil, and is able to provide
independent views, valuation and recommendation.
Conclusion & Action: We strongly recommend independent investors NOT TO
ACCEPT THE OFFER from ENOC, which we estimate at a 40% discount of the value
of Dragons independent cash flows. Given that ENOC have failed to come forward with
a realistic bid based on a 20% IRR, we look at what Dragon is worth independently,
and we are raising our target price to 805p, a significant uplift which highlights the
real attraction of Dragons assets.

who is NCB other than the now defunct National Coal Board?

the board other than ENOC must hold a good slab of these shares, and i dare say the institutions have also been consulted.
can the deal be blocked?
possibly, but do that and there will assuredly be a massive backlash with sp dumping perhaps 100p ..... nice time to buy if that happens.

my advice would be to sell in the market and watch - but what do i know (lol)!

are there any dragon oil shareholders out there! jes, cant believe just 2 comments from others today and cyril las left too now