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Diageo (DGE)     

buzzing - 21 Dec 2009 13:44



I put some money on these and it went up few months ago. Pulled the money out and put it elsewhere. Is it worth putting more money on them now?

skinny - 17 Oct 2013 07:15 - 61 of 86

Interim Management Statement

Diageo reports 3% organic net sales growth for the three months ended 30 September 2013

In the three months ended 30 September 2013 Diageo delivered 3.1% organic net sales growth with volume up 0.6%. Reported net sales were flat for the quarter mainly reflecting the termination of the distribution agreement for Jose Cuervo.

By region, organic net sales growth for the three month period was:
· North America 5.1%
· Western Europe (1.1)%
· Africa, Eastern Europe and Turkey 1.3%
· Latin America and Caribbean 10.9%
· Asia Pacific 0.6%

skinny - 17 Oct 2013 15:25 - 62 of 86

Credit Suisse Outperform 1,943.50 1,938.00 2,350.00 2,350.00 Retains

Investec Sell 1,943.50 1,938.00 1,865.00 1,865.00 Reiterates

Numis Add 1,943.50 1,938.00 2,200.00 2,200.00 Reiterates

skinny - 18 Oct 2013 11:51 - 63 of 86

Barclays Capital Overweight 1,978.75 1,954.00 2,250.00 2,200.00 Reiterates

skinny - 30 Jan 2014 07:02 - 64 of 86

Interim Results

The strength of a diverse portfolio in a tougher environment


· Net sales grew 1.8% in the first half, following growth of 2.2% in Q1*

- North America up 4.6%

- Western Europe down 1.0%, continuing the improving trend seen in Q1

- Emerging markets up 1.3%, impacted by weakness in baijiu in China and in Nigeria

· Continued strong price/mix in both developed and emerging markets at 4ppts

· Marketing investment up 2.7%, ahead of net sales growth, to 15.6% of net sales

· Super and ultra premium brands grew strongly, with reserve brands up 18.5%

· Beer was the only category to decline, down 2.6%, with weakness in Nigeria and Ireland

· Operating profit grew 2.9% with 0.4ppts of operating margin improvement

· Free cash flow was £326 million

· eps pre-exceptional items 62.6 pence per share, up 4%

· Interim dividend increased 9%

· Detailed plans to be developed to de-layer the organisation and deliver further operating efficiencies

· Savings of £200 million a year by year ending 30 June 2017 will fund future change programmes, investment in growth and improved margin

· Restructuring costs, expected to be taken as an exceptional charge, will be between £200 million and £250 million

*Q1 organic growth restated to $1 = VEF19 (Venezuelan Bolivars). See explanatory note 2 on organic movements.

skinny - 30 Jan 2014 08:45 - 65 of 86

Small long @1816.

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=DGE&Si

skinny - 30 Jan 2014 14:10 - 66 of 86

Canaccord Genuity Hold 1,833.00 1,900.00 1,835.00 Reiterates

Numis Add 1,833.00 2,200.00 2,200.00 Reiterates

Liberum Capital Hold 1,833.00 - - Reiterates

skinny - 17 Apr 2014 07:01 - 67 of 86

Interim Management Statement

jj50 - 16 May 2014 10:16 - 68 of 86

Is anyone else having trouble trading this stock this morning? Tried
to sell on both my accounts and I can't get a quote? Unusual.

skinny - 16 May 2014 10:25 - 69 of 86

I've just tried a dummy sell and got quoted.

jj50 - 16 May 2014 10:37 - 70 of 86

Thanks skinny. I wonder what the problem my end was?
They have finally come back but 6p
lower than original quote. Shall hang on a bit longer.

grevis2 - 01 Jul 2014 09:41 - 71 of 86

Shares in Diageo and SABMiller were also on the up today after it was rumoured that the companies could combine, creating a drinks group worth over £100bn at current market prices. It is thought that Peroni and Grolsch maker SABMiller, the larger of two with a market capitalisation of around £54bn, could be eyeing a possible merger with Smirnoff and Baileys manufacturer Diageo in an attempt to ward off an approach from drinks giant AB Inbev, which has been rumoured as a potential bidder in recent weeks

skinny - 31 Jul 2014 07:16 - 72 of 86

Preliminary results

Created a stronger business in a tougher environment


· Net sales, up 0.4%, reflecting mixed performance; growth in North America, stability in Western Europe and weakness in emerging market economies

· Fourth quarter net sales up 0.8%

· Positive consumer trends in higher priced categories, Diageo's reserve brands net sales were up 14% and targeted price increases drove 3ppt of positive price/mix

· Operating margin improved 0.8ppt

· Procurement driven savings, worth 4% of total marketing spend, more than offset the cost of increased activity, contributing 0.2ppt of the total margin improvement

· Eps before exceptionals was down 7.6p to 95.5 pence per share as foreign exchange movements reduced eps by 10 pence per share

· Free cash flow was £1,235 million

· Recommended final dividend of 32.0 pence per share, up 9%

skinny - 16 Oct 2014 07:55 - 73 of 86

IMS for the three months ended 30 September 2014

skinny - 29 Jan 2015 07:04 - 74 of 86

Interim Results

A strong business improving in a challenging environment

· Organic net sales in the half were broadly flat (-0.1%) with volume down 1.9%. Performance improved in Q2

· Continued strong performance of reserve brands, up 10%, was a key driver of positive overall price/mix

· Marketing spend was in line with net sales, as effective spend benefitted from procurement efficiencies worth 3% of total marketing investment

· Restructuring benefits drove operating margin improvement of 28bps with organic operating profit up 0.7%

· Free cash flow was £699 million, up £373 million on the first half last year

· Eps before exceptional items was 53.7 pence per share, down 8.9 pence per share driven by negative exchange impacts and lower income from associates and joint ventures

· Interim dividend up 9% to 21.5 pence per share

HARRYCAT - 09 Jun 2015 12:02 - 75 of 86

Credit Suisse note:
" There has been widespread speculation in the media this weekend that 3G may be in the early stages of considering a bid for Diageo, following an initial article by well-followed Veja columnist Lauro Jardim last week. Diageo ADRs were up 9% late Friday.
 Diageo is very exposed, confidence in management is low meaning, in our opinion, any bid would be well received by investors.
 Assuming an offer at a c30% share price premium, and gearing up to similar net debt/EBITDA ratio as Heinz was (8-9x), we estimate 3G would require -£40bn of equity to fund the transaction pre asset disposals, which could involve the beer business (£10bn) to ABI, wine (£1bn) and the 34% stake in Moet Hennessy (£3.5bn). So that's £25bn of equity post disposals.
 For 3G, aside from cost savings, the prize could be a higher multiple on the largest international spirits business in the world - note best in class pure play spirits companies such as Brown Forman trade on 26x FY16E P/E multiples v Diageo trading on 18x. And, ABI (23% owned by 3G founders) would be a likely front runner to buy Diageo's beer business, a HSD EPS accretive deal post synergies. As an aside, in our view, further reducing the scope for an ABI/SAB combination, leading to de-rating in SAB's premium.
What is Diageo's defense? Replicate 3G's strategy, instil a zero based budgeting savings program, dispose of non spirits assets.
Conclusion for investors. Despite poor fundamentals, Diageo moves into the special situ camp. We raise our rating to Neutral (from Underperform)."

cynic - 24 Jul 2015 17:47 - 76 of 86

bloody glad i got out of these the other day, purely to reduce exposure to the markets

Claret Dragon - 29 Jun 2016 13:31 - 77 of 86

Up at resıstance level agaın. Break out hopefully.

Claret Dragon - 01 Jul 2016 12:08 - 78 of 86

Good couple of days.

Is there anymore to come is the question now!!!

Claret Dragon - 06 Jul 2016 08:54 - 79 of 86

Had a good run wıth thıs one.

HARRYCAT - 26 Oct 2016 12:54 - 80 of 86

HSBC note today:
The long-hoped for cultural change looks to have arrived and we turn bullish after an extended period of caution Management appears to be executing better than at any time in recent memory, easing our concerns about the future.
Upgrade to Buy from Hold, raise target price c11% to 2,600p
More than just a post-Brexit vote rally: Diageo historically has been known as a company that has struggled to meet expectations. Our valuation and rating of the stock has typically priced in some scepticism, leading us to be more bearish than many.
However, after a year of extended conversations with managers across the company, we think Diageo's often criticised corporate culture is finally evolving in the direction long hoped for by the market. This gives us optimism that management is executing more efficiently than at any time in recent memory; we are, in effect, giving the benefit of the doubt to a management team that is affecting change in a meaningful and constructive way.
Thus we are upgrading Diageo shares to Buy from Hold for two reasons.
First, operationally we believe Diageo is: (i) focused on meaningful cost control, (2) benefitting from a booming and well-resourced Reserve portfolio push and (3) stoking solid local growth stories. All of these we believe will continue to drive the stock from here post the Brexit vote rally.
Second, due to Diageo's high operational exposure to the US and the Eurozone, the recent update to HSBC's global cost of equity estimates has an immediate positive impact on our DCF valuation. We lower our WACC by 30bps to 6.3% from 6.6%, resulting in a new target price of 2,600p, an increase of c11% from 2,350p previously.
Trading at a P/E of 21.1x versus our calendar 2017e EPS of 103.62p, the stock remains at a 5% discount to the group average of 22.5x, making it an attractive option versus expensive peers."
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