Are they any good..?



currently 150p to buy.

bought some at 59.81p

Large drop recently and today, now on the bounce from lows of the day. There is a seller at 60p order book, once gone will shoot up. Charting had a 76.8% fibonacci retracement.

courtesy of "NormalBias"

Preparation for sail away

Here's my take on the current situation - having carried out a tilt test the rig is back in dock taking on supplies prior to final deep water test and tow (assuming all well in deep water). I'm led to believe this because as things stand today Ithaca has contracted 4 AHST vessels (Anchor Handling, Tug and Supply vessels). These boats are designed to move oil rigs among other things.
The Balder Viking (Anchor Handling, Tug and Supply vessel) is now contracted to Ithaca from 27th July. Likewise the Olympic Octopus and the Tor Viking. nb all 3 of these vessels have recently been used for Rig moves and all 3 currently based in Aberdeen. The fourth vessel, the Boa Jarl is contracted to Ithaca from 1st August and is currently based near Bergen (presumably carrying out duties for another contractor). The Boa Jarl was hired to move a rig that looks of similar size/stature to the FPF1 during the past couple of weeks (see notes below from the Offshore Energy website regarding the Borgland Dolphin).

I understand that the oil price will impact IAE due to sentiment but as many have already posted the hedging IAE have in place offers protection from a dip in POO until mid 2017. The fundamental plan outlined by IAE mgmt remains the same - move FPF1 to Stella, hook up and pump. Deliver more cheaply than thought via the recent pipeline deal (rather than using offshore vessels which have to return to port in bad weather). My only issue beyond the irritating delays is that I'd like to hear from IAE mgmt about 2017+ plans for further expansion to demonstrate an ongoing commitment to sustained/additional production in the North Sea. Maybe we'll hear something soon when FPF1 sails into deep water which from memory is when Les Thomas promised a further update. It's an interesting time whatever happens, and I like some others am happy to hold right now during this dip as I believe the next several months offer huge upside potential. GLA.

NOTES FROM OFFSHORE ENERGY
Boa’s two vessels will be assigned to complete the move of the Borgland Dolphin semi-submersible drilling rig currently working offshore Norway.

The vessels involved will be two anchor handling tug and supply (AHTS) vessels, the Boa Bison and Boa Jarl. The company added that the Boa Bison will also provide ROV-services.
The rig-move contract, according to Boa, will begin on June 18 but the duration of the contract was undisclosed.
The Borgland Dolphin semi-submersible, built in 1977, is an Aker H-3 type rig which underwent an extensive upgrade in 1999 and received the Acknowledgement of Compliance (AoC) in September 2004.
The two AHTS vessels recently completed rig-move work for Statoil. The Boa Jarl completed a rig-move contract for the Songa Dee semi-submersible rig from June 4 – 10 while the Boa Bison moved the Deepsea Bergen semi-submersible from June 5 R

As the oil price reached a double bottom ( lately lows ) yesterday, the stock looks like has reached the bottom for the moment being also and now rising and breaking from the downtrend on the 5 days chart

Broker Forecast - Peel Hunt issues a broker note on Ithaca Energy Inc

Peel Hunt today upgrades its investment rating on Ithaca Energy Inc (LON:IAE) to buy (from hold) and raised its price target to 78p (from 64p).

59.50p +3p

Moving higher with the oil price rise of the last couple days

% rise compare - PMO, GENL, ENQ,TLW,

--------------------------------- 1 month -------------------------------------------------------- 6 month ------------------------------

61.375p +4.625p (+8.15%)

After 1pm the orders took charge and is spiking up like no tomorrow
best oil producer stock

64p +3.75 (+6.22%)

Another good move up today, help this afternoon by the rise on the oil price

and a super finish 66p +5.75 (+9.54%)

How is performing in Canada

re - FPF-1 from Gdansk to Stella

due to Gale warning FPF-1 got shelter and waiting to calm down.

Movement-
Watch this link https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=8772128
and click on ‘track’ on left hand side, zoom out and see how its been moving around in circles!

There was a comment yesterday by "oil man " Malcolm Graham-Wood | Wed, 10th August 2016 - 10:40

Ithaca Energy (IAE) appears to have come to a temporary halt in moving FPF-1 from Gdansk to Stella - inclement weather is stopping it moving from Sweden through the Denmark straits - but I am reliably informed that it will be on the move by Friday.

re - FPF-1

milestones to look for:
When rig arrives at Stella,
when the rig is anchored,
when testing completes,
when production starts

note : The FPF-1 looks like is now travelling west towards Stella

HTTPS://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=8772128 then click on "track"

Ithaca Energy (IAE), up 3.49% to 66.75p, said output averaged 9378 barrels of oil equivalent per day (93% oil)
in the six months to end-June. This was ahead of guidance and largely as a result of solid performance
from the Cook and Dons Area fields.

By Oil man - Malcolm Graham-Wood | Mon, 15th August 2016 - 12:37

Interims this morning from Ithaca (IAE) show that all is going to plan for the poster boy of the Exploration and Production sector.

Production of 9,378 b/d exceeded guidance of 9/- and a "solid" cash flow of $82 million (£64 million) is down to sustained reduction of unit operating costs - now estimated at sub-$25 pre-Stella - and lots of hedging: 8,200 b/d by mid 2017.

Net debt keeps falling: from being over $800 million it is at $606 million at the end of June, giving headroom of over $120 million.

Those of us tracking FPF-1 can see it on the last stage of its journey and going so well that the company has given an actual date for first hydrocarbons; remember, remember November 2017. (1)

The outlook is indeed good, strong even and, with that date in sight, production will rise to 20-25/- b/d and operating costs to below $20.

IAE shares have had a good year as the market appreciates all the good work on costs and, of course, the material change at Stella. At 65.5p, they have quadrupled in the year to date but, with so much good news coming, I am confident that there is plenty more to go for.

(1) could be wrong and be November 2016

Ithaca Energy on the acquisition trail - Written by Rita Brown - 16/08/2016 7:26 am

Ithaca Energy confirmed it was in talks to boost its North Sea portfolio.

Chief executive Les Thomas said the firm was “patiently” conducting discussions to find the right match.

“We want to do more acquisitions in the area,” he said.

“It’s important for us to be patient so we can acquire the right reserves and resource for the right price.”

The company boss said it was targeting prospects both within and out with its Great Stella Area (GSA) hub.

“We think we have gotten the company in decent shape from a cost and sustainability perspective and going forward we can look at other opportunities.”

The company insisted the North Sea was not a “one-pan” deal, highlighting how it has rescued stranded resources by striking a deal to gain access to the export pipeline, Norpipe, for future production and tie-in work. The move reduces “fixed operating costs, enhances operational uptime and improves reserves recovery”.

The company is targeting a transition from tanker loader to pipeline exporter during 2017.

The chief executive also confirmed Greater Stella’s FPF-1 will arrive on site early tomorrow morning. Mooring work will begin immediately and start-up is targeted for November.

The company boss was confident in the firm’s timetables.

“We’re putting risk behind us every day,” he said.

The company’s operating costs are expected to drop to $20 per barrel following first oil from Stella.

Stella will reduce operating costs $30 per barrel to $20 per barrel year-on-year. Stella’s operating costs tally $10 per barrel.

Elsewhere, it increased its stake in the Vorlich discovery to 33% and acquired a 75% operating interest in the Austen discovery. The pair are considered GSA satellite acquisitions, according to the firm.

Ithaca is targeting new field start-ups every two years, starting with Harrier in 2018.

It acquisition strategy centres on low cost entry to existing discoveries, according to the firm.

Oil prices rising last night and this morning, so are share prices of oil companies. Best risers during the last month from lows to highs PMO 49% IAE 42% ENQ 37% TLW 26% CNE 22% OPHR 19%

Speculation that Delek will again try to bid for the company

Delek's recent Asset Sales:

17th Feb: Attempting to sell Phoenix Holdings.
19th April: Completion of Sale Republic Companies Inc ($140m USD)
31st July: Raised 1,112,000 NIS = Circa $300m USD
17th August: Sale of Tamin & Karish leases sold to Energan ($148.5m USD) Delek's Share 52.94 = $78.61 USD
17th August: Signing of Agreement Sale of Power Station Ashkalon 200m NIS = circa $53m USD

Delek seems to be off loading assets building up its reserves
Is this the plan to launch a takeover?

A good push up since late yesterday has follow this morning, being the best oil stock since

Sunday Telegraph - Business - by LIAM HALLIGAN
Why I'm sticking with my forecast of oil rising to $60 a barrel
In the absence of a major financial meltdown, oil will end 2016 north of $60 a barrel,” this column stated at the turn of the year. It was a forecasting flourish possibly fuelled by one Christmas brandy too many.

With just four months of 2016 to go, though, I’m sticking to my Yuletide view.

Attempting to predict the oil price is crazy. Yet no decent economist can afford not to. The world economy still revolves around oil – used in everything from transport and electricity generation to the production of plastics, synthetics and so much else. And for all the breathless talk about renewables, and the grim inevitability of growing nuclear dependence, we remain addicted to oil.

As recently as 2005, world crude consumption was just 84.7 million barrels a day. That’s since gone up to 95.1 million daily, a 12pc increase in just 10 years. And that rise came during a decade when global GDP growth was rather sluggish.

Had the world economy not endured the 2008 financial crisis, and subsequent stop-start recovery, oil consumption would have grown even more. But still, for all the expansion of wind and solar, and endless hype about a “post-petroleum world”, oil consumption continues to rise relentlessly – and that won’t change any time soon.

crude oil
The oil price has surged this month, up from around $41 a barrel in early August to almost $52 last week, before falling back slightly.

This 20pc-plus increase puts crude technically into “bull market” territory. This is striking, not least because from mid-June to the end of July, oil was in “a bear market”, having dropped over 20pc. Despite this summer volatility, though, the direction of travel is clear. Oil has been climbing steadily, if not always in a straight line, from its February low of $28 a barrel.

This August rise in oil prices stems from market fundamentals on the one hand, and geopolitical speculation on the other.

Earlier this month, the highly respected International Energy Agency (IEA) published a report suggesting global crude supply will fall short of demand during the third quarter by nearly a million barrels a day.

This projected deficit comes despite the fact that the Opec exporters’ cartel continues to pump like billy-o. Having traditionally restricted supply to keep prices high, Opec has over the last two years been doing the reverse, of course – flooding global markets with oil, lowering prices to squeeze high-cost US shale producers out of existence.

Amidst record production by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE, total Opec output hit an eight-year high in July, up no less than 840,000 barrels a day on the same month in 2015.

This Opec supply surge was more than offset, though, by the dramatic ongoing slump in output from producers outside Opec. Declines in the US, China, Canada and Mexico combined to push non-Opec production down by more than 1.1 million barrels a day compared to July 2015.

Total crude pumped last month, then, within Opec and beyond, was 215,000 barrels down year-on-year. This eye-catching outcome helped to drive the International Energy Agency’s forecast of a significant crude shortfall between July and September – which, in turn, helped to push prices up.

opec
CREDIT: BARBARA GINDL
On top of this technical evidence of a tightening oil market, there are signs Opec may soon come to an output-limiting agreement, putting more upward pressure on prices.

Back in mid-2014, de facto cartel leader Saudi Arabia announced a production hike in the face of falling prices – an aggressive bid to protect Opec’s market share.

Oil subsequently plunged 70pc over 18 months, surely more than the Saudis expected. This dramatic fall, from over $100 to less than $30 a barrel, harmed not just upstart shale and tar-sands producers in the US and Canada as intended, but also Opec members – not least the mighty Desert Kingdom itself.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that low prices cost the big Arab oil exporters almost $350bn (£265bn) last year. Dependent on crude for more than 90pc of its revenue, the Saudi government is now nursing a budget deficit approaching a colossal 15pc of GDP.

Typically the world’s largest crude producer, the Saudis clearly now want higher prices. The trouble will be getting all other Opec members to agree – not least Iran. Then there are the Russians, outside Opec but obviously a major player on international oil markets. Russia typically pumps more than 10 million barrels a day, after all, often outpacing the Saudis.

Unless global markets crash, I say that year of $60-plus oil will be 2017
An informal Opec summit is scheduled a month from now in Algiers. Throughout August, leading Opec members – not least new Saudi oil minister, Khalid al-Falih – have said “price stability will be discussed” in the Algerian capital.

There’s much scepticism a deal can be struck, of course. A similar Opec “showdown” in Doha back in April failed to produce a production-cap agreement. And Opec quota-cheating – with members often pumping beyond agreed limits to garner extra revenue – means the cartel is riddled with distrust.

The key fissure within Opec is that between predominantly Sunni Saudi and overwhelmingly Shia Iran. This ancient Tehran-Riyadh schism has undermined the cartel’s coherence in the past and these days there’s an extra complication. Iran’s oil-export sanctions were lifted by the United Nations only in January.

So the Islamic Republic, despite its Opec membership, has been reluctant to agree to any Saudi-led initiative to limit supply, just at a time when Tehran has been trying to restore Iran’s place as a leading global supplier.

Significantly, Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh last week confirmed he will attend the Algiers meeting in September. Iran’s absence in Doha was, according to the Saudis, the main reason that summit failed. Seven months after export sanctions were lifted, Iran’s production has soared from under three million to over 3.8 million barrels a day, but remains short of its four million pre-sanction level. Having said that, Iranian output has plateaued over the last two months – which has fuelled speculation Tehran might agree to co-ordinated Opec action to limit supply.

Khalid al-Falih
Saudi 's oil minister, Khalid al-Falih CREDIT: HAMAD I MOHAMMED / REUTERS
If there is a deal in Algiers, and it binds – with Opec holding together, and the Russians staying on board – then my end-of year oil prediction, in the absence of a Lehman-style global meltdown, will almost certainly come true.

Such geopolitical stargazing has helped push up oil prices this month. During the first week of August, short crude oil positions on the NYMEX, one of the world’s leading commodity exchanges, were at a 10-year high. A large number of traders, in other words, thought oil was set to fall back towards $30. That view has now been thoroughly trounced, with the resulting “short squeeze” helping to drive this latest 20pc oil price rise.

Aside from speculation and diplomatic wrangling, though, there’s growing evidence of an emerging supply-demand deficit.

Buried in the IEA’s latest report is the significant observation that it expects a further 900,000-barrel reduction in non-Opec output by the end of this year.

This Saudi-driven price war has seen global investment in oil exploration and field development cut by $300bn, some 41pc, since 2014. The “active rig count” – the number of wells being pumped worldwide, is down 37pc.

Before these trends are slowed, let alone reversed, oil will need to spend at least six months, and probably a year, firmly above $60 a barrel, if investors are to be convinced profits can be made, so persuading them to put serious money back into future crude production.

Unless global markets crash, I say that year of $60-plus oil will be 2017.

74p +4.50p

Supper update from the company, production higher, debt down, higher hedge $56 during Q3 than price now....
Third Quarter 2016 Operations Update - 6 October 2016

Ithaca Energy Inc. provides an operations update following the end of the third quarter of the year ("Q3-2016" or the "Quarter"). The Company is scheduled to issue its financial results for the first nine months of the year on 14 November 2016.

Highlights
· 9,550 boepd average production for first nine months of 2016 - ahead of 9,000 boepd guidance
· FPF-1 offshore hook-up and commissioning operations progressing to plan - start-up of the Stella field continues to be anticipated in November 2016
· Significant progress made on installation of the oil export pipeline from the FPF-1 to the Norpipe system
· Continued deleveraging, with net debt at 30 September 2016 reduced to $598 million

Production & Operations
The producing asset portfolio has performed well over the first nine months of the year ("YTD-2016"), with production running ahead of guidance. Average production during the Quarter was approximately 9,900 boepd, resulting in YTD-2016 average production of 9,550 boepd.

It is anticipated that full year base production, excluding any contribution from the start-up of the Stella field during 2016, will be modestly ahead of the 9,000 boepd guidance range. During the final quarter of the year, base production volumes will be reduced compared to the previous quarters as a result of the approximately two week planned maintenance shutdown of the Brent Pipeline System that serves the Company's Northern North Sea fields.

Greater Stella Area Development
Good progress has been made on the final stages of the Stella development programme since the FPF-1 floating production facility set sail from Poland in August 2016. The FPF-1 was safely towed to the field, moored on location and the dynamic risers and umbilical connecting the subsea infrastructure to the vessel installed as planned. Technip is in the process of concluding the remaining subsea commissioning works. At the same time the FPF-1 offshore commissioning programme is on-going, with preparation of the topsides processing and utility systems for the introduction of hydrocarbons underway. The scheduled completion of these activities remains in line with previous guidance, with first hydrocarbons from the Stella field anticipated in November 2016.

Significant progress was also made during the Quarter on the work programme associated with making the switch from tanker loading to oil pipeline exports for the Greater Stella Area in 2017. The 44 kilometre spurline from the FPF-1 to the Norpipe system was successfully installed as planned in September 2016. The key outstanding activities that now remain to be completed are the manufacture and installation of pipeline export pumps on the FPF-1 and the final subsea connections that need undertaking immediately prior to the switchover.

Financials
Hedging
During Q3-2016 approximately 9,900 boepd (47% oil) of commodity hedges were realised at an average price of $56/boe. The volume of production hedged in the final quarter of 2016 remains unchanged, at approximately 8,800 boepd (50% oil) at an average price of $59/boe.

Operating Expenditure
As previously guided, average unit operating expenditure in 2016 for the existing producing asset base is anticipated to be approximately $25/boe. Following the start-up of production from the Stella field this cost is forecast to reduce to approximately $20/boe, reflecting the lower unit operating costs associated with the field.

Net Debt
Net debt at 30 September 2016 reduced to $598 million. The Company has in place total available debt facilities of $730 million, providing in excess of $130 million of funding headroom ahead of planned first hydrocarbons from the Stella field. This funding capacity comprises $300 million unsecured senior notes and $430 million bank debt facilities.

Q3-2016 Financial Results Conference Call
The Company is scheduled to release its Q3-2016 financial results on 14 November 2016.

Ready for a BREAKOUT after yesterday good RNS, is now at the same point as the highest intraday high back in early July.