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Centamin Egypt : Worth waiting for... (CEY)     

pthwaite - 20 Sep 2004 10:27

CEY is a gold mining company operating in Egypt. It was ordered by the Egyptian Government to stop drilling pending a legal dispute brought against the company by a government minister.

Since then, the whole Government cabinet was replaced a few months ago and the minister now in charge of Mining is believed to be positive on Western investment in the country. CEY are pushing for this minister to allow them to continue drilling ASAP; investers are waiting....patiently.

As soon as the company gets the go-ahead to continue drilling, the share price will move north; CEY has plenty of gold in this mine and it is (apparantly) the case of "raking" it out rather than drilling for it!

Check them out...worthy of a punt.

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=CEY&Si

required field - 02 Aug 2011 09:23 - 901 of 2354

It's those points or some of them that made me buy in again....they are making a hefty profit....

hlyeo98 - 02 Aug 2011 09:25 - 902 of 2354

Centamin Egypt June Quarter report
2 Aug 2011

HIGHLIGHTS

Operations

Quarterly gold production of 47,991 ounces was achieved from the Sukari Gold Mine.

Cash operating cost averaged US$606 per ounce for the quarter.

Average gold sales price received was US$1,545 per ounce.

Reduced blasting activities due to irregular issues of blast products by Blast Inspectors negatively impacted open pit and underground production, and as a result, gold production. The Company is confident issuing practices will return to normal in Q3.

As a result of the reduced blasting in Q2, the Company has been unable to recover as initially expected from the supply interruptions in Q1. With the expectation of blasting activities returning to previous levels in Q3, the Company has revised its guidance to 200-210,000 ounces for 2011 at a cash cost of approximately $550 per ounce.

The underground operation commenced Commercial Production during the quarter with a total of 43kt @ 12.5 g/t being extracted.

Maiden grade controlled underground ore reserve of 126,000t @ 11.9 g/t with definition drilling ongoing.

Mine Expansion / Development

Stage 4 expansion to 10Mtpa was approved by the Board for a capital cost of US$255m (excluding contingency). Long lead items have been ordered and significant contracts awarded with commissioning expected to take place in Q1 2013.

Planning and modelling commenced for a secondary decline development accessing the northern high grade Julius Zone of the Sukari porphyry.

Regional exploration returned significant intercepts for first pass drilling at the V Shear prospect (approximately 3km north of the Sukari process plant) including 16m @ 3.00g/t from 151m. Follow up programmes are currently being planned.

Corporate/Finance Activities

Quarterly operating profit of US$48.2m versus US$19.1m Q2 2010 Cash and liquid assets of US$201M versus US$35m Q2 2010 (liquid assets includes $17m in share investments and $38m gold bullion)

On 11 July 2011, the Company announced an offer for Sheba Exploration (UK) Plc, a PLUS listed UK registered company ("Sheba").

Sheba holds highly prospective mineral exploration licences in Ethiopia. On 29 July 2011, the offer was made unconditional with over 90% acceptances received.

The Company remains debt free and unhedged.

All capital and ongoing operating expenses in Egypt continue to be financed from cash flows generated by gold revenues from the Sukari Gold Mine.

required field - 02 Aug 2011 09:49 - 903 of 2354

Don't want to sound too optimistic but an autumn bull run in equities could be on the cards once again....gold is still rising so this must put upwards pressure on the sp's of the producer-explorers....

required field - 02 Aug 2011 09:51 - 904 of 2354

25% drop in less than 2 hours...staggering ....

gibby - 02 Aug 2011 11:35 - 905 of 2354

98p - i will be in shortly - yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

dealerdear - 02 Aug 2011 11:36 - 906 of 2354

An excellent short

niceonecyril - 02 Aug 2011 11:37 - 907 of 2354

Yes on around 2% of total stock,10m sold/ 10m bought. So shares have changed hands a at much lower SP,reserves still there and problems sorted along with record gold.

niceonecyril - 02 Aug 2011 11:42 - 908 of 2354

Looking at the trades,sub 1 and dealers flocking in,so support gere? Lets see how the market reacts to the presentation?

niceonecyril - 02 Aug 2011 11:45 - 909 of 2354

Those that bought at 99p seem to be taking a healthy 5% profit in minutes,nice one
those that did so.

kimoldfield - 02 Aug 2011 11:52 - 910 of 2354

It is almost rude not to buy at the present price!

gibby - 02 Aug 2011 11:55 - 911 of 2354

nice one nice one - i was one of them

yes kim i could not be that rude so had to buy (& sell) lol

looking for more fun here today!!

gla

kimoldfield - 02 Aug 2011 12:01 - 912 of 2354

I think I'll hang on a bit before selling. Greed. Bad thing!

gibby - 02 Aug 2011 12:13 - 913 of 2354

agreed - sorry!! :-;
i'll buy back &

Centamin has reported a big increase in quarterly profits up from $19 to $48 million however the uncertainty over Blast inspectors restricting the amount of blasting in the open mines and restrictions on products Centamin needed for production in the last quarter has spooked the market for these shares. Hedge funds and other institutions will be selling these shares in order to buy them back cheaper so take a look at the daily graph to see if it takes a second dip or stabalises. The company has a good production facility it is making profits it has loads of gold reserves and is buying up other gold companies elsewhere all without having to borrow money and most importantly it is debt free. However it is operating in a turbulent country with some factors beyond its control so if you feel brave enough get in while they are cheap a new government election in Egypt in September may solve a few problems.

kimoldfield - 02 Aug 2011 12:16 - 914 of 2354

It all adds to the excitement. Or despair! :o)

hlyeo98 - 02 Aug 2011 13:08 - 915 of 2354

CEY is seriously undervalued now for a gold producer and explorer.

halifax - 02 Aug 2011 13:15 - 916 of 2354

check out their PE ratio and market cap never mind the political risk and lower production forecast.

HARRYCAT - 02 Aug 2011 13:30 - 917 of 2354

Collins Stewart note:
Blasting constraints hit production
Limitations in the supply of explosives slowed progress in Q2, seeing the company cut full year guidance by c.18% to 200-210koz at a $100/oz higher cash costs of $550/oz. Q2 production was 47,991 ounces, up 6% on Q1 and within 4% of our estimate. Cash costs rose sharply to $606/oz, up 15% on Q1 and 11% above our estimate. However a strong sale price of $1545/oz, boosted the financials to deliver an operating profit of $48.2m, 5% above consensus and our estimates, and an EPS of 4.4c/share vs. 3.8/share.

Explosive inspectors to blame:
Production was affected by the supply of blasting product being constrained by government blast inspectors. The company is confident that the issuing of explosives will normalise in Q3, but the lost progress has resulted in the downgrade. The company did start commercial production from the underground and is now expecting lower volumes at higher grades as the mining methods have now been defined.

Centamin has also finally announced the capital cost estimate for the Stage 4 development to 10mtpa of processing capacity of $255m (excluding contingency). This is 42% above the scoping study estimate of $179m (excluding contingency) which at the time didnt include mining equipment. On a like for like basis, this is therefore a 15% increase on the cost estimate for the expansion less mining equipment. The expansion has been approved by the board, with commissioning planned to take place in Q1 2013.

Our Valuation and TP
We have pushed through the updated guidance and capital estimates through our model. This cuts our NPV by 18.5% to $1,990m. Applying our standard multiples of 2x operations and 0.5x the Sukari Phase 4 project, we generate an updated target price of 170p, representing a 17% cut. We continue to recommend the stock as a buy, however with the second cut to guidance this year, we are likely to see continued weakness in the stock in the short term.

gibby - 02 Aug 2011 13:31 - 918 of 2354

yep - i'm having a great day here today - hope you are doing well also

gibby - 02 Aug 2011 13:32 - 919 of 2354

past 112 - only 1 thing for it...

yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

gibby - 02 Aug 2011 13:48 - 920 of 2354

past 114!! plenty more here according to l2 - fill ye boots
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