OK so you thought the title of the other thread was out of date BUT unfortunately there is no way to edit thread titles.

So here is a new title

This one has got the charts at the top again & has a link to the old one.
http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=5021

True on both counts Fred1new but the belief shown by Sanofi-Aventis should, I would have thought, been mirrored by some new investors.

The failure figure used to be quoted at around 30% with 60% getting through. The remaining 10% ... who knows;-).
However Trovax may be more uncertain than previous drugs & will probably be treated as such, as it is breaking new ground!

The dip was, IMO, very useful for those of us who felt like topping up.

With the company valued at around 280M & the payments, combined with a sharing of trial & development expense should make a significant difference to the progress of OXB. At the end of last year they stated they had 28.5M in cash so the 19.84M will make a major difference. Although I see nothing concerning the timing of the first payment apart from the word 'initial' which may not mean soon.

Evolution have raised their target to 61p, but it might take a littlle while to get there. May be a day or so as I think their estimate is quite conservative!

Whilst, "under the deal, TroVax may be developed by Sanofi in any cancer setting, Oxford has retained an option to develop TroVax for other cancer types in exchange for enhanced financial returns, while Sanofi will keep all commercial rights. It has also retained an option to participate in the promotion of TroVax in the US and the European Union." So there could be even more to come.

Jon Senior at Evolution is quoted as saying "If you add in sales milestones, it could be worth more than 1 bln usd." However perhaps I should capitalise the 'could'!

A great deal of uncertainty has been taken out of the development of Trovax & that in itself, must be worth a significant lift!

Fly by Night

Red

WAS IN THE THE D/TELE ON THURS MORNING INTERSTING ARTICAL THAT WAS
WRITTIN REGADING IT

Great note Red, thanks.

Oxford Biomedica PLC
29 March 2007







For Immediate Release 29 MARCH 2007


OXFORD BIOMEDICA: NOTICE OF ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING

Oxford, UK - 29 March 2007: Oxford BioMedica (LSE: OXB), the leading gene
therapy company, announces today that it will be holding its Annual General
Meeting on Thursday, 3 May 2007, 11.00am, at the offices of Morrison & Foerster
MNP, CityPoint, One Ropemaker Street, London EC2Y 9AW. A notice of the 2007
Annual General Meeting will be sent to shareholders on 2 April 2007.

Here are some press links to today's comments:

Second article on this one!
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/article1582670.ece

http://www.market-insider.net/?p=1648
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article2401749.ece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/03/29/cxquest29.xml

I've been busy today & not had time to read them all myself.... Yet!


Red

[[All those late-March2007 newspaper-reviews are kind and give a good overview to the many years of underlying effort (and shareholder patience) - that it has been achieved is testament to Trovax and the staff....thanks!]]

OXB has been busy-busy recently, or how it comes over as News - the truth is that they are always this busy but what is moving along isn't newsworthy. This deal is "probably" the best news a full-list London stock has received in relation to its capitalisation... for Many Years!
Even if Trovax doesn't work, OXB walks-away with a pile of dosh and they have been quick to buy another Oxford-based company to add to the pipeline - this makes sense, as execs could become blinkered with their own products and the new-blood will serve to widen their horizons.

What of the future?
Let's assume that Trovax continues to gain strength (and Approval) - Then it depends on the life-extension it provides .... Ideas range from a few weeks (any less and you're into nebulous "is it working?" territory (like British Biotech-Oops!) but if it adds a few months to many patients and maybe a year or so to others, then by any standard it is worthwhile. There is a possibility that some may be cured, but that is wishful-thinking until the statistics are proven.
This deal shows that the potential is really serious - and that means several parties are confident enough to cough-up significant lolly.....great! and long may it continue -

Will we see any sp improvement? . . . a small dividend would be nice, payable over 1-year for shareholders on the register when this deal was ann. - would be a result!
It's unlikely, but would serve to demonstrate the company is a serious cash generator and not hype - who knows it might convince Institutions to invest before the sp goes balistic.

How high can it go?
Well at current levels it reflects the extra cash-in-hand and I suspect there is little there for the "future-value".....and frankly the earlier sp was 30p and a deal was expected - so the extra cash is looking like it's the 15-20p on top - practically less than the cash-value. Oh dear!
Therfore I don't think the sp values Trovax any further than "inrteresting" - later, when it generates sales, then we should see a further 20p for each chunk as that adds to the Company - so maybe 20p in yr1(2008), a further 20p in yr2 and so on, as the market penetration improves each 20p could become 25-30-35.
Look again in 3-years and there is minimum 45p (say) of cash and fundamentals, then each year =25p plus 30p plus 35p representing the cash-flow/penetration. ((obviously any blip, when Approval is given may exceed 1 for a few days...but many loose-holders will drop-out))...however, my suggestion is already 1.35 as a steady-value - so one has to ask: Is the "1-blip" likely to be greater? - the answer has to be "yes" - they always are!
So what size could this "blip" be? Well, for my money I expect a peak to be about 1.5x the steady-state - look at any stock that's has had some excitement (ignore 1-day wonders) - and you will see that such a blip (or surge) will be 1.5x steady-level (drawn across 1-year of variations)...so perhaps 1.35 x 1.5 = 2 by my maths.....very nice! . . . and I expect OXB will slip over following 3-weeks, as loose holders drop stock to satisfy institutional invesrtors....

However, this ignores the time-scale - 3-years - so some patience is needed! (and some continuing good fortune).
This is my longest-held significant share and looks good so-far.....pity the Market doesn't agree with my maths; but that's Figures for you!
I'm indicting a peak of 2 and a steady-state moving from just under 1 (maybe this time next year) to over 1 in the year beyond - and that surge is worth about 50-65 pence if you move quickly. If you can afford 20,000 shares (that's still under 10k right now!), the money you could make on swift-dealing is 11k-ish for a 3-year hold(to 2010)....probably worth having some in an ISA and the rest as Certificated/nominee ... By reacting quickly, you will bank some profit AND keep your stock if things go acording to pattern......but "if" is the operative here, DYOR.

Any contrarian views?
- I'm particularly interested in 'yr take' on "time-scale" and a potential "surge" as this is where some cash can be made, yet still hold the stock further-on.....

Great read hangon and well thought out. The way the sp is motoring south again at present would suggest the wider market doesn't agree with your figures but I think, as usual, it is being very short-termist and I certainly intend to hold for the longer tem outlook.

Thanks for the post red (oxb) will go down till about 38p and then it will start to rise ............................long trem

I would agree, some movement south is to be expected, but I suspect the recent rise is the market awaiting the AGM stratement to punters and City alike. It will be an opportunity to hear about the CASH and the new company...oh, and Trovax!
Let's hope there is enough room to sitdown...I may bring my own biscuits...as I'm expecting it to be busy.
In "shares" toiday someone is asking about "Sell in May..." which was true 30 years ago - anyone going to risk it with OXB? No, not me...not on yr nelly! I was fortunate to buy at 29.9pence so I'm well into profit...but see this spring as the End of the Beginning - now we shall see some strength as folk latch onto the real potential...with OXB's cash-position it is difficult to see what could go wrong....me and my Mouth!

I'm seeing 50p today (to buy) so there is more interest than usual (ie afterwards).
However, I've noticed the spread is quite wide - nearly 20% can anypone suggest why this might be?
I hold this stock, it's probably my No-1 holding.

8% down today, what a shocker! no, No, NO! we know that OXB has a habit of falling back as short-term punters take their profits - and why not? - let them move on to their next excitement.
However, since there has been "no reason" for the fall we should discount it - the AGM is only weeks away and I suspect we shall ( as in previous years) see some steady improvements towards that time and maybe a further boost as punters phone their brokers on the day,(can't blame the Broker turning a profit?). What happens after that.... is down to market forces, but It will be a Sad day if they reach 38p (as suggested here), for that would be a real "buying op" - so I'd be surprised anyone would wait until it fell below 40p (for example). Am I tempted at these (45-47p) levels? - - No! - - All investments carry risk and whilst I'd be truely gutted by OXB failure, it would be largely a "paper-loss" as they have other products and the likelyhood of multiple failure is almost zero - but it is still possible - for example a terrorist attack, death of several execs as a result of an air-accident...all of these are serious factors.
However, they are rare - - - as indeed are co's with the qualities of OXB - indeed if anyone knows of something similar in both "product potential" and "Execs" - - - leave me a coded-message - I'd willingly take on another Biggie!

It is certainly disappointing that the market is not more positive on the share at the moment.

EVO BUY NOTE TODAY :



OXFORD BIOMEDICA (OXB.L) - BUY - PRICE/TARGET : 41p/61p - MELANOMA VACCINE DATA
Presentation of updated phase II melanoma vaccine data

EVO TAKE - BioMedica's forthcoming presentation of positive phase II results for its melanoma vaccine builds on data previously reported. The trial has produced encouraging signs of efficacy, which in a similar vein to the TroVax results, suggest that the better the immune response the better the clinical response. The Company is optimising the vaccine formulation for even greater efficacy, prior to embarking on another phase II trial. In our view, BioMedica's share price fails to reflect the potential value of TroVax and ascribes no value to promising products such as Hi-8 Mel. Buy.

DETAILS - BioMedica is to present updated phase II results for its therapeutic melanoma vaccine (Hi-8 Mel) at the American Association of Immunologists (AAI) meeting. Recall that Hi-8 Mel, a vaccine for metastatic (advanced) melanoma, was recently added to the pipeline through the 16.3m acquisition of Oxxon Therapeutics. The Company will highlight data from the completed 41-patient phase II trial, which was designed to assess the vaccine's immune and clinical response. The trial has produced signs of efficacy, which in a similar vein to TroVax results, suggest that the better the immune response the better the clinical response:

1. Over 90% of patients receiving the optimal Hi-8 Mel dose generated an immune response to the vaccine.

2. Patients receiving any dose of Hi-8 Mel who developed an immune response specific to one of the vaccine antigens (Melan-A) had a median survival of 100 weeks vs. 37 weeks for immune non-responders (p


3. Tumour responses were seen in 20% of patients as measured by RECIST criteria (a measure of tumour shrinkage) - encouragingly, one patient has shown a partial response (sustained shrinkage) exceeding 12 months.

4. Patients in the control group, who received standard of care, had a median survival of 42 weeks. Median survival for patients receiving Hi-8 Mel was 51 weeks compared to 26 weeks for patients receiving the viral vector component alone (p=0.024).

In terms of next steps, BioMedica is investing the 3m cash acquired with Oxxon to develop Hi-8 Mel up to the start of phase III trials. The viral vector (MVA) used in Hi-8 Mel is the same one used by BioMedica as part of TroVax. The Company's researchers are therefore reconfiguring the vaccine to improve its efficacy. Once achieved, another phase II study will be undertaken prior to embarking on phase III development.

VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION - Our 61p NPV based target price is currently at a 40% premium to the current share price, which presents a clear buying opportunity. Furthermore, we maintain that the current price only partially reflects the potential value of TroVax (518m deal with Sanofi) and ascribes little or no value to promising products such as Hi-8 Mel. Buy.

Have a look at ASM

16 million shares traded today, must be big holders buying and selling to each other

This is starting to look interesting I may switch some of my ASM into this any thoughts.

I think this is oversold given the recent deal and future prospects. I know that "Jam tomorrow" isn't to everyone's liking but OXB has real prospects and there's the possibility that their jam may be an absolute blockbuster.

Bought in today looks like good support at 37p

Welcome onboard. I hope that OXB proves profitable for you driver.