Pre-market trading started yesterday (19-05-11), but full market trading to start next week, Tuesday as it now stands (could change). 530p the float price.

Chart to come when I get it, and any other updates/corrections that I happen to spot.

Glencore still eyeing options to raise $2.5bn in new equity

I wonder who is holding much of the debt. Trip to the barbers coming for them I suspect for a salvage.

Deals | Wed Sep 23, 2015 6:15pm BST
Related: DEALS
Glencore slump spoils commodity trader appetite for IPOs
LONDON | BY SARAH MCFARLANE AND DMITRY ZHDANNIKOV



Unprecedented shareholder pressure over the past six months at listed commodities firms Noble and Glencore have taught their private rivals an unforgettable lesson - think twice before going public or amassing large physical assets.
Noble's stock is trading near its lowest since the 2008 global financial crisis and Glencore's touched an all-time low on Tuesday due to plunging commodities prices and earnings.
"In the last two years you were possibly better off being private and not being listed, with the short sellers being so active in commodity companies," said Karel Valken, global head of trade and commodity finance at Dutch bank Rabobank.
After the record $10 billion Glencore share offering in 2011, which turned its managers into billionaire shareholders, commodity traders had come under an unprecedented spotlight.
Even though most unlisted merchants kept insisting they saw the private model as the most appropriate for now, many market watchers said it was only a matter of time before the likes of Louis Dreyfus followed suit to raise money for expansion via listings.
Those views first began to change after Olam International hit the headlines in late 2012 when its accounting practices were under attack from short seller Muddy Waters.
Then in February this year Noble came under fire when blogger Iceberg Research alleged that the company was inflating its assets to the tune of billions of dollars by not fairly representing the value of its commodity contracts - claims that a private firm would never have to deal with.
Noble rejected the allegations and a report by board-appointed auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) found no wrongdoing in the company's accounting practices.
In the case of Glencore, the recent slide in its share price was triggered by a slump in earnings, which was compounded by a downward revision in its outlook to negative by ratings agency Standard & Poor's, along with an increasingly shaky economic outlook for top commodities consumer China.

"DOOMSDAY SCENARIOS"
This month, the mighty chief of Glencore, Ivan Glasenberg, had to bow to shareholder pressure and agree to cut debt as worries mounted over the firm's ability to protect its rating amid tanking commodity prices.
Glencore's stock has lost 80 percent of its value since its IPO. In August Glasenberg blamed short sellers and hedge funds for the rout, saying they did not understand his business and were painting "doomsday scenarios" for commodities.
Less than a month later shareholders forced him to pledge to cut debts, selling assets and issuing $2.5 billion in new shares to which the management including Glasenberg had to commit $550 million.
Glencore's new share issue was successfully completed last week, with many old and some new shareholders, dominated by long-only investors, participating. The move was seen as a vote of confidence in the turnaround plan but the stock kept falling this week together with commodity prices.
For unlisted private traders lower commodity prices are just background noise because their bankers know their model is based on profiting from price volatility and not from high or low prices.
"Our view has not changed - a private company status and ownership by employees is the right model because it embodies a clear alignment between the interest of owners and people who are driving the business," a spokesman for Trafigura said.
Of all the Glencore and Noble rivals, only Louis Dreyfus has openly said it could list one day.
Louis Dreyfus Commodities has issued bonds since 2012 in order to diversify its sources of funding and has adopted similar governance principles as those of a public company, but has no IPO plans at this time.
The company declined to comment on Glencore's situation.

GROWING WITHOUT LISTING
Oil traders Vitol, Mercuria, Gunvor and Trafigura said they would remain private, although Trafigura had in the past envisaged a listing for its midstream division Puma.
Sources at the four firms said their views have only been strengthened by the developments at Noble and Glencore.
Glencore argues that sacrificing its private status has allowed it to outgrow rivals and test a new model where trading complements extracting and refining commodities.
Its rivals retort that they have no shortage of funding when they want to expand despite their private status. Dozens of banks have a combined $100 billion worth of credit lines opened on Vitol, Trafigura, Mercuria and Gunvor.
In terms of asset ownership, traders indeed look strikingly different from the 1970s when the late trader Marc Rich, seen as the founder of contemporary trading, established the firm which later became Glencore.
Over the past decades, trading houses have amassed huge wealth and many used it to buy physical assets ranging from ports to refineries and oil fields.
Glencore used its IPO to go even deeper and heavier into copper and coal asset ownership, a trend which - according to Robert Piller, commodities lecturer at the Geneva Business School – it took to the "extreme" when it bought miner Xstrata for $29 billion in 2012.
"The trading companies, even though they are adding assets, have maybe 10-15 percent of their balance sheet in fixed assets, so they are still a long way from being considered asset heavy.
I don't expect them going anywhere near the levels of asset investment as Glencore," said Piller who is also director of Aupres Consult.
Over the past three years Vitol and Gunvor bought refineries in Europe, Trafigura invested in infrastructure in the United States and Brazil and Mercuria bought business from bank J.P. Morgan - and all the deals were financed by bank loans.
But the four firms say going deeply into exploration would be a step too far as it would effectively mean taking a long position in a certain commodity - a strategy which backfired for Glencore this year as copper and coal prices tanked.
"I think if there is a lesson for the other trading companies it's that their doubts about listing have been confirmed," said Piller.
"I believe the biggest doubts about listing would be pushing yourself into the spotlight," he said, adding that traders had alternatives for raising long-term capital such as via sovereign wealth funds or via bond placing.
(Editing by Veronica Brown and Gareth Jones)

This will end up D4E in the next 12 months. Looks awful.

This is akin to the dotcom crash where only the biggest and best survived. This one is the Marconi I suspect.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1339789/Marconi-from-boom-to-bust-in-a-year.html

KAZ getting trounced as well .

New all-time low for Glencore drags UK stocks lower

Comment from Investec today:
"The challenging environment for mining companies leads us to the question of how much value will be left for equity holders if commodity prices do not improve. We have adopted a P/E-based approach to evaluate how the equity value of the major diversified companies might vary over time in proportion to debt and have identified the companies where equity values are most at risk. If major commodity prices remain at current levels, our analysis implies that, in the absence of substantial restructuring, nearly all the equity value of both Glencore and Anglo American could evaporate.
 In the current climate, debt is fast becoming the most important consideration for mining company management. “Never underestimate the ability of debt to undermine the value of equity,” neatly sums up the problem that equity holders face when considering how the highly leveraged companies, such as Glencore, see their much diminished earnings absorbed by the obligations to debtholders.
 Our methodology values the equity portions of company Enterprise Values by applying a constant P/E multiple to our earnings forecasts going forward. Under our base case commodity assumptions, which assumes gently recovering prices, we expect a challenging 2016 for the majors, but foresee shareholder value in all companies appreciating steadily from 2017 onwards.
 Our ‘spot scenario’, however, graphically illustrates the rapidly shrinking slice of “equity pie” left for shareholders should commodity prices not recover. Under such a scenario, the value for Glencore and Anglo American equity holders is virtually eliminated given sustained depressed earnings, particularly in Glencore’s case as a consequence of its higher debt base, the recent refinancing notwithstanding (see: Refinancing and restructuring – some breathing space, 23rd Sept). While the picture is less extreme for BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, they too would face a substantial challenge to meet management’s apparently steadfast commitment to maintaining dividends, which we estimate would consume 50% of ongoing operating cash flows in this scenario.
 We suspect Glencore’s recent restructuring may prove just the start for the majors if current spot prices prevail for much longer, and this serves to support our concern that we are still a distance away from a “value point” in the Mining sector."

Worth no mre than 20p I believe.

Why Glencore shares could be worthless

So the article says 37p is on the cards... very grim with 30 billion debt. Disastrous!

From the same article :-

"Should Glencore actually close a session below 97p, it's going to need a bit of a miracle as there's clear air between such a point and 37p," says Strang.

Does it mean the price will be either 97+ or 37-?
Which bank lent to them?
How are they going to be affected?

I still hold from 340!!!

I know the pain.

IF, IF, IF it survives?

what price to buy?

It is tempting as there seems to be a smell of capitulation with volume today - doubtless exaggerated by the numerous doom laden articles - hmmm.

Skinny, you are a brave man to hold this.

I don't (yet)! :-)

AAL looks tempting too but where is the bottom?

Sitting in my armchair and occasionally squeaking!

In a media statement on Wednesday, Glencore said it has taken proactive steps to position the company to withstand current commodity market conditions. "Our business remains operationally and financially robust - we have positive cash flow, good liquidity and absolutely no solvency issues," it said. Glencore said it's getting on and delivering a suite of measures to reduce its debt levels by up to $10.2bn.