http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

you're just an anthropomorphosised emu and don't eat fish!

frontera resources/FRR

I love it when you get dirty cynic..:))

Gulf Keystone Chalks Up Yet Another Significant Drilling Success On Its Iraqi Kurdistan Acreage





Junior E & P Gulf Keystone made what has been described as a company making find on its acreage in Iraqi Kurdistan. Having no production as yet and with a tortured relationship with the Algerian oil and gas authorities, which it wants to put behind it, the AIM listed GK was more than pleased when its Shaiken-1 well came good, essentially in the shallower Jurassic zones of the formation down to 2,055 metres
GK has revisited the Triassic zones, which did not come up with spectacular results the first time around and has now made a huge discovery, which has meant Shaikan- 1 is even more company making than it was, if you follow me.

For those who are bit unclear about the zones here is some background. Earlier in November GK said it had got an independent evaluation of the Shaiken wells shallower zones results, which looked very good. Dynamic Global Advisers the third party assessors reported that the Shaiken-1 well had discovered a significant resource of low gravity oil in the Jurassic Barsarin, Sargelu, Alan, Mus and Butmah formations. The range of oil-in-place for the Shaiken structure is estimated to be gross 1.0 to 5.3 billion barrels of oil, with a mean of 2.8 billion barrels.

The large discovery in the Jurassic was blighted a bit, the DGA study said by the heavy nature of the crude (between 17 and 22 degree API).This can affect recovery rates typically between 10 to 20 per cent of the oil-in- place is recoverable with this kind of crude. GK said: Given the preliminary nature of the DGA report, and with Shaikan still an active exploration well DGA were not asked to provide analysis of recovery factors.

The report also said that although there had already been some positive results from deeper Triassic zones, further drilling would take place and this could add materially to the resource. This is what has happened. The company has announced the most recent Triassic discovery flowed at 10,000 boepd, resulting in an aggregate actual test rate of 20,000 boepd from the Jurassic and Triassic tests done thus far in Shaikan-1. The company conducted its second test in the Triassic at depths of 2,582-2,849m and produced 6,000 bopd of 53-55 degree API oil and 2million cubic feet gas, while the first Triassic test had flowed 2,000 bopd and 2 million cf/d previously.

However, this first Triassic test was severely limited by surface restrictions and downhole tool problems. Internal engineering analysis of the test data indicates that the first Triassic zone could have flowed at rates up to 14,000 boepd, giving the Triassic section alone potential aggregate rates of about 24,000 boepd . In other words the second test could have performed better than it did.

Broker Fox-Davies Capital points out the Shaiken-1 well has potentially discovered well over 1,000m of oil column and in excess of 200m of net pay, of which only 30 per cent has been tested. Potentially there could be tests of 31,000 boepd of aggregate production ( 7,000 bopd from the Jurassic and 24,000 boepd from the Triassic. This aggregate potential should rise significantly as the company undertakes longer term well tests.

On the back of these tests Fox- Davies is raising its oil-in-place estimates for the Triassic section from 0.5 billion to 0.5-1.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and the recovery factor from 40 per cent to 50 per cent for that section, given the high oil density. This compares to the 18 per cent recovery factor for the Jurassic portion of the reservoir, resulting in an aggregate 28 per cent recovery from its own 4.4 oil-in-place estimate. Fox Davies reckons that the impact of the resources revision is about 25p on the share price and it has left its probability of success unchanged at 67 per cent for Shaikan and 50 per cent for the other three, as yet undrilled, blocks in Kurdistan.

Gulf Keystone is not without its detractors, as we have reported. Last summer its decision to exit Algeria created bad will among investors and its erstwhile partner BG. It should be said that the Algerian authorities were making some pretty harsh and unreasonable demands over development costs on some pretty indifferent assets, the way Algerians do.

Also the introduction of a little known private investment fund ETAMIC in its Kurdistan venture raised some eyebrows at the apparent dilution of this potentially transformational exploration project.

But all that said the discovery is a vast, jackpot-type find for a small company like GK. Even after the ETAMIC deal, GK retains a meaty 50 per cent stake in the project. GK is now a Kurdistan play. Despite some niggling some niggling doubts over the right of title, Kurdistan has become a world class frontier province with companies big and small making very large discoveries there.

GK should hold investors interest going forward. The company now has interests in four blocks, Shaikan and Akri Boijeel, which were awarded in November 2007, as well as the Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr blocks, awarded last summer. GKs technical team anticipates that the potential combined prospective resources of these two new blocks will exceed one billion barrels of oil-in-place.

The shares have seen a very good rise this year up from 4.8p in February to 109p recently. In the light of the triumphs in the Triassic, Fox Davies has raised its 12 month target price to 200p.

kuzemko - from where did your report come and on what date?

cynic

from the Oil barrell.com
December 01, 2009

Gulf Keystone Chalks Up Yet Another Significant Drilling Success On Its Iraqi Kurdistan Acreage

Gulf Keystone Chalks Up Yet Another Significant Drilling Success

thanks master ..... i used to follow oilbarrel but came to the conclusion it was little more than an advertising platform for the companies

Not long now to find out who gets Iraq oil fields:

Published December 1, 2009
BAGHDAD - The oil ministry is now making plans to host the Dec. 11-12 oil bidding rounds at its Baghdad headquarters instead of the al-Rashid Hotel in the more secure Green Zone.

The headquarters was the original location slated for the auction, which will see as many as 44 foreign oil companies in a bidding war for 10 oil field projects.

damp squib that was last time too
prob for GPK is different
they have the oil but the baghdad wallahs won't let the kurds export it

From Digital look:
Oil Explorers Target Kurdistan Riches
By Lee Wild, ShareCast Journalist

Oil companies are swarming all over the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq, keen to exploit its huge reserves, but political tensions have put a brake on production and look unlikely to be resolved until well into next year.

Research by analysts at Canadian broker Canaccord Adams found the value of shares in public companies active in Kurdistan has increased by $40bn, or 40%, since February.

When new entrants are included, the market cap of companies digging in the region now stands at $200bn. And theyre having some success.

London-listed Heritage Oil, rated a buy at Canaccord with 713p price target, has increased its internal resource estimate for Miran West ranges from 2.3 to 4.2 billion barrels of original oil-in-place, while 500m AIM company Gulf Keystone Petroleum has an external report estimating 1.0 to 5.3 billion barrels at Shaikan.

Elsewhere, Sterling Energy is on course to start drilling at its Sangaw North prospect this month. An independent review has given a best estimate of gross prospective oil resources for the Cretaceous interval of 804 million barrels.

Canaccord believes the region bordering Turkey and Iran provides unique opportunities for exploration companies seeking exposure to large-scale reserves.

They say few areas can match Kurdistans potential, which could represent as much as half the estimated 75 billion barrels of undiscovered oil in Iraq. Thats attracted an increasingly large group of independents who, over the past nine months, have delivered encouraging results from six exploration wells. At least eight more wells are due to be drilled over the next six to nine months.

The traditional majors have given Kurdistan a wide berth, choosing to focus their resources on the southern fields to be awarded by Iraqs central government.

But theres good reason for that. Several significant issues concerning the oil rush in Kurdistan remain outstanding, meaning extra hassle for the big guys that they dont get further south.

Exports from new fields in Kurdistan - Taq Taq and Tawke began in June, but stopped four months later as the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the central government of Iraq failed to agree on a method of direct payment for exports.

Baghdad maintains that the KRG cannot sign contracts without central government approval and continues to ban companies with stakes in Kurdistan from bidding in Iraqi licensing rounds.

Kurdistan is also unable to use the existing export pipeline running from Kirkuk in northern Iraq to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan without Baghdads blessing.

While Turkey has become friendlier towards the KRG recently, it will not risk its relationship with Baghdad by sanctioning a cross-border pipe with the KRG, Canaccord says.

The global oil industry has been waiting for years for passage of the legislation, which includes a law on how to share revenues from oil exports between Iraqs various regions and a law resurrecting the national Iraqi oil company.

It doesnt expect any resolution until the political landscape changes following the federal Iraqi parliamentary elections on 16 January 2010.

But itll take more than a little uncertainty to deter the independent explorers given the potential size of the rewards.

When considering the pros and cons of investing in Iraq, it's worth reading the following RNS from PET:

28 September 2009

Interim Results for the Six Month Period to 30th June 2009


Iraq remains the focus of Petrel. The country has the best natural resources
play worldwide, but it is a complicated place to do business. No one has more
recent practical experience or understands the potential and challenges of the
country better than Petrel. The position of the Petrel/Makman contract on the
Subba and Luhais oilfield development has not changed in recent months. There is
ongoing contact between the partners, but agreements accepted by Petrel are not
being implemented. There is a solution to this problem. We will continue to talk
to the parties involved and to new parties who believe that they can broker a
settlement. In the meantime, development at Subba and Luhais is at a standstill,
while nothing is happening on our other interests; Block 6 and Merjan.
Meanwhile, progress is being made in Jordan, where protracted farm out
discussions continue. Our technical and geological analysis has been accepted by
the potential partner. The challenging capital market conditions of the past
twelve months have made capital raising difficult for the partner.


Let me once again try to explain the current situation in Iraq.


Iraqi oil output has fallen since 1990. But State producing companies have done
well to stabilise output at c. 2.5 million barrels per day. While well below
pre-2003 levels, this has to be seen in terms of decades of strife, sanctions
and under-investment.


Security continues to improve. Gradual withdrawal of international forces helps
re-establish Iraqi sovereignty and legitimacy. Regional tensions have reduced
with the new US Administration. Neighbours are now working more closely with the
Iraqi authorities.


As of September 2009, no one is sure how the laws, contracts and general
government will evolve. The understandable preference of the Iraqi authorities
is to drive the best bargain for their citizens. For historical reasons, there
is public suspicion of the super-major oil companies. Hence, the attempts to
develop the oil industry by means of service contracts. Such an approach is
normal in the region, but not suitable for a country that has Iraq's recent
history.


The Oil Ministry has been active. Several deals have been announced, but none
have gone smoothly. In the recent bid round, the lowest bids were from emerging
National Oil Companies. But these enterprises do not have the technology and
have not demonstrated the performance that Iraq rightly demands and needs.


The bid round process was off to a shaky start this June when the bids deviated
widely from Ministry expectations. Only a BP-led consortium concluded a deal,
and it is unlikely that this will be implemented to the satisfaction of both
parties. Service contracts do not align the interests of the players or
guarantee access to the best technology to maximise recovery from reservoirs.


The recent bid round did provide valuable information. The majors submitted bids
based on increased production. The targets proposed by the majors were
impressive. The BP consortium expected to increase output by nearly 2 million
barrels daily on the Rumaila field alone - effectively doubling Iraqi exports
through just one project! This confirms Petrel's long held belief that Iraqi oil
potential is world class, but it needs modern technology, international capital
and skilled management to unlock the potential. Persuading the Iraqi authorities
that 80% of a big cake is better than 95% of a smaller cake is the challenge.
The forthcoming second round will face similar difficulties to the first. Iraq
remains a challenging location. Companies will only invest when returns are
adequate.


The current legal situation is further complicated by attempts of regional
authorities in Iraq to extend their influence into areas properly belonging to
the central Government. This exacerbates nationalism and complicates matters.
Attempting to bypass the legitimate sovereign authorities is not a sensible or
ethical way to invest. This leads to political sensitivities that impede the
cutting of pragmatic deals that would rapidly boost production.


We expect most issues to clarify in the coming months. Divisions among the
policy-making parties probably require democratic endorsement in the upcoming
elections in January.


It remains unclear how these negotiations will play out.

the last 3 sentences almost contradict each other.
eventually, though goodness knows how far into the future that will be, baghdad and the kurdistanis will reach some sort of agreement to allow the export of the oil from that region.
it is patently obvious to anyone with a gram of brain and common sense that some sort of compromise is in all parties very best interests and should be struck at the earliest opportunity.
however, if you live in the expectation that that sort of logic from ********** (can't think of a non-inflammatory way of writing that!) will even cross their minds let alone prevail, then you must live in cloud-cuckoo land!

cynic don't forget the sunni comeback/backlash.

and yet there is almost no religious difference at all between sunni and shia and they even use the same mosques (i think).

anyway, i'm sort of stuck with these shares now, so i guess i'll just sit it out

Haven't seen RF lately... has he jumped ship again and ended up on a tramp steamer to Dubia..

"Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. today announces that, as informed by the Operator to the Ministry of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, the Bijeel-1 well was spudded on Friday 11th December 2009 in the Akri Bijeel block. Gulf Keystone Petroleum International holds a 20 per cent working interest in the production sharing contract ("PSC"). The block is operated by Kalegran Ltd. (80%) a subsidiary of MOL.

The Bijeel-1 well will target prospective intervals in the Cretaceous and the Jurassic. The well is the first exploration well to be drilled on the Akri Bijeel block which is adjacent to the Shaikan block. The well is planned to a target depth (TD) of approximately 4,300 metres and is forecast to take approximately four to five months to complete."

Been busy with things...catching up with rns's now...

Placing rumours at 90p levels.

http://www.sharescity.com/2009/12/weekend-newspaper-stocks-shares-tips.html

.

Business Financial Newswire
"Gulf Keystone Petroleum has drawn down 1,560,000 of its 30m standby equity distribution agreement with YA Global Master SPV announced on 7 May.

The funds will be used to develop Gulf Keystone's projects in Kurdistan.

This is the fifth draw down under the SEDA and brings the total to 13,060,000.

Under the terms of the SEDA, the company has allotted 1,717,269 new shares to YA at 90.84p per share. "