there seems to be some heavy resistance around these level with a lot of potential upside.

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan has confirmed its first case of a genetic mutation of the new H1N1 flu virus that shows resistance to Tamiflu, the main antiviral flu drug, a health ministry official said on Thursday.
The patient was given Relenza and recovered, and does not appear to have infected anyone else.

Could this be the first move toward Relenza taking over.

And what will happen if the H1N1 virus mutates to a higher level that Relenza can't touch. A bit scary coupled with the figures of late that up to 100,000 persons in the UK per day could catch the virus. Good job it is not a more virulent strain. Of course we can trust our government 100% to be prepared for such an eventuality, Yer right.

http://www.reuters.com/article/internal_ReutersNewsRoom_ExclusivesAndWins_MOLT/idUSTRE5614TW20090702

Saturday July 04 2009

EVERYONE in Ireland is shortly to be offered a free swine flu vaccination as health authorities brace themselves for a worst-case scenario of up to 100,000 new cases a week.

Glaxo is mentioned in full article.
No doubt Scotland will get the same before the poor neighbour (England) get it.


http://www.independent.ie/national-news/swine-flu-jab-for-all-after-virus-toll-alert-1805686.html

WASHINGTON, July 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. government will pay for any vaccination program against the H1N1 swine flu, and may encourage schools to help vaccinate children, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said on Thursday. The government is also considering buying even more antiviral drugs, including more of GlaxoSmithKline's inhaled drug Relenza and pediatric doses of Roche AG's Tamiflu, officials told a swine flu "summit" at the National Institutes of Health.

Dd you get your divi yesterday Greek? It all helps...

Morning Falcothou,

Yes, and a you say it does help. Glaxo's divi must be one of the best in the market. Appreciate it is not the highest but it is high and looks very safe.
I hope other countries follow the lead of the USA re their decision re Relenza. I would have expected the sp to be a bit higher on opening, but I suppose the increased revenue from Relenza is just a spit in the ocean for GSK.
I have never forecast an SP before regarding a future forecast but I took the bait a few months ago and forecast 15 by end of March 2010. I still feel that with Galxo's new direction re more add ons or/and joint ventures coupled with their expansion into the health food/drink field this is still achievable.
Obviously only a personal view.

Nice to have a bit of company on here.

From The Sunday Times July 12, 2009
Everyone will get vaccine against swine flu.
Jon Ungoed-Thomas

The NHS is preparing to vaccinate the entire population against swine flu after the disease claimed the life of its first healthy British patient.
A new vaccine is expected to arrive in Britain in the next few weeks and could be fast-tracked through regulatory approval in five days.
As many as 20m people could be inoculated this year. Ministers have secured up to 90m doses, and the rest of the population is likely to be offered vaccinations next year.
The first patients in the queue for the jab - being supplied to the UK by GSK and Baxter Healthcare -

Full article.....
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article6689955.ece

Whilst no one wishes this Flu to spread or mutate, it undoubtedly will do both, and as with all disasters, natural or otherwise there are many companies and/or individuals that will make vast amounts of money.

As I understand a virus survives by mutating especially when it comes up against disease resistance.
Very interesting website and book Greek if you are interested in nutrition and how the body adapts to mineral/ vitamin defiencies
http://www.mybodylanguage.co.uk/

According to todays Yorkshire Post, the British Government have signed a contract with manufacturers GSK and Baxter to supply up to 132 million doses of swine flu vaccine.
May have been published earlier, but I have not seen the figures before.

Falcothou,

Just looked through the website www.mybodylanguage.co.uk, looks interesting.
Plain speaking and easy to understand.

That's a lot of doses, I wasn't sure who was doing supplying, good for Glaxo
It's written by a forensic scientist, his wife got huge cravings for lettuce(6/day) because of it's anti-carciogenic properties... it transpired she had breast cancer!The book is quite funny e.g. sex with the milkman... regarding a woman who has a milk allergy and she reacts badly to her husband' semen if he drinks milk!

I have been puzzled why if the cost of a single coarse of Relenza is far cheaper than a single coarse of Tamiflu as to why Tamiflu appears to be the drug of choice. Also according to an article in the Lancett, Tamiflu has more side effects than Relenza. The following article goes some way to an explanation although with cost tending to be the main driving factor behind most drugs prescribed or/and recommended by Governments, I do feel I am still missing something.

I appreciate the article is a couple of months old.

Is Tamiflu 'better' than Relenza?
Posted in BCP Confidential by Nathaniel Forbes on 2009/05/12 17:04:46

I can find no clinical evidence that Roche's Tamiflu is more effective than GlaxoSmithKline's less-prescribed Relenza against Type A influenza like H1N1 and H5N1.
Japanese health inspector in goggles, mask, gloves and gown interviews passengers on a flight arriving in Tokyo from the U.S. on May 2, 2009

I have found abundant evidence, however, that Switzerland-based Roche has run marketing circles around U.K.-based GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) by emphasizing the convenience of swallowing a Tamiflu capsule over the hassle of inhaling Relenza powder.

That's the only reason I can imagine why a dose of Tamiflu is two to three times as expensive as a dose of Relenza. A dose of 75mg Tamiflu costs US$5 to US$10 at Internet pharmacies, but a dose of 5mg Relenza costs only US$2.50 to US$3.50. Both require prescriptions.

See link for full article

http://www.zdnetasia.com/blogs/bcp/0,3800011228,63010743,00.htm

Second quarter results from the drug giant GlaxoSmithKline are due Wednesday. Charles Stanley is looking for a 14% increase in year on year sales to 6.7bn. By contrast, operating margins are likely to be adversely impacted by the significant off-patent pressure over 2008 caused by the loss of Lamictal, Imitrex, Wellbutrin XL and Paxil CR as well as the ongoing pressure on former blockbuster diabetes product Avandia, the broker says.

Aside from the figures, analysts will be keen to see if the firm has anything to say about the H1N1 Virus outbreak. In a recent note on the company, Panmure Gordon said: GSK should benefit from the situation medium term, and it is worth noting that GSK received an order from the US government totalling US$71m for its adjuvant technology, which should provide upside to forecasts beyond any specific H1N1 vaccine the company manufactures.

Greek I'm confused as to why Astra has been out-performing Glax when it has no swine flu drugs and supposedly a more limited pipeline. Looking for a Astra shorting opportunity for hedging

Glaxosmithkline is in line to receive a 1.3bn sales injection from the global swine flu pandemic as concerns about the virus rise.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/pharmaceuticalsandchemicals/5858430/GSK-in-line-for-1.3bn-swine-flu-booster.html

Falcothou,

My only thought is that due to Glaxo's sp going nowhere over the last few years, it has effected how punters look at the company, IE confidence is lacking on the SP's reliability to hold it's value.
I feel that due to their future prospects with the new direction and dividend they are a good couple of below value.

Kimoldfield,

Read the Telegraph article, and it does look very promising, especially the mention of probable Relenza sales as well as the prospects for their vaccine.

Greek.

Oh well - at least its a step in the right direction!

GlaxoSmithKline Expects Further Swine Flue Vaccine Orders





LONDON -(Dow Jones)- GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK.LN) Wednesday said it will start shipping a new vaccine for H1N1 pandemic flu, dubbed swine flu, by September, and expects further significant orders.

GlaxoSmithKline said Wednesday it has orders for 195 million doses of the vaccine from governments, and is in talks with another 50.

Chief Executive Andrew Witty told reporters Wednesday the drug maker believes it will be able to make enough of the vaccine, and its existing antiviral Relenza, to satisfy current levels of demand.

"I expect further significant orders," said Witty.

Company Web site: www.gsk.com

But will the vaccine produced by GSK work as the H1N1 virus must be mutating!
For months now the graphics of the bug, shown on our TV screens have always been blue, but for a few days now they consistently change to red.
Presumably the WHO have noticed, although I could never understand what a 1964
pop group has to do with Swine flu.

Now who said, Tamiflu doesn't have side effects. Next time I will try Relenza.

I wonder which of these Sarkozy is on re. fainting. I favour the latter
Medications that can cause low blood pressure
Some medications you may take can also cause low blood pressure, including:

Diuretics (water pills)
Alpha blockers
Beta blockers
Drugs for Parkinson's disease
Certain types of antidepressants (tricyclic antidepressants)
Sildenafil (Viagra), particularly in combination with another heart medication, nitroglycerine

No wonder the public feel mislead.

Government virus expert paid 116k by Tamiflu vaccine makers
By David Derbyshire
Last updated at 1:24 AM on 27th July 2009

Sir Roy, 61, who was unavailable for comment yesterday, earned 116,000 at GSK last year, at least a quarter of which he received in shares.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1202389/Government-virus-expert-paid-116k-Tamiflu-vaccine-makers.html

Well done...The Daily Mail

Greek, nothing surprises me anymore! The Government would have been aware of this; I wonder how many GSK shares GB & AD etc have?!