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Avanti Communications (AVN)     

hlyeo98 - 04 Aug 2010 11:22

This is a BUY tip from Tom Winnifrith...

Sorry if this is rather boring as the market cap is now c 350 million but at 470p Avanti Communications (AVN) - a stock held in the SF t1ps Growth Fund - is really very cheap whichever way you look at it. It is now funded to launch 3 satellites into space ( and fully insured if the worst happens which will only delay the programme by 6 months anyway). You value Avanti by discounting back the net cashflows these satellites will generate. That depends on how much capacity is sold and at what price. Use a model based on very conservative assumptions and this stock is worth 13 ( the lowest valuation in the market). But that model uses assumptions about sales prices which are already being beaten by forward sales Avanti is booking today. Use those prices and you head up to the 22.50 value of house broker Cenkos. My own view is that Avanti will do better still and this stock could therefore be worth 25. Exc itement will mount as the first satellite is launched later this year. Remember those valuations are the Net Present Value of future cashflows ( i.e. what they are worth today). If you can buy at under 600p ( as you can now) you should do so and sit back and wait. I suspect after HYLAS 1 is launched you will never again be able to buy at less than 600p.

kimoldfield - 24 Nov 2010 14:44 - 101 of 382

Hmm, did that appear a blue square with a question mark? Don't know why! The site is www.arianespace.com, Porky also posted the site in post 90.

Dil - 24 Nov 2010 14:53 - 102 of 382

Wouldn't miss it for the world Kim , my guess is it'll go sooner rather than later so still be time for a celebration drink.

kimoldfield - 24 Nov 2010 14:56 - 103 of 382

I'll drink to that! :o)

Dil - 24 Nov 2010 14:59 - 104 of 382

Tabby gonna miss it hiding behind his sofa.

kimoldfield - 24 Nov 2010 15:02 - 105 of 382

Lol

skinny - 24 Nov 2010 15:12 - 106 of 382

Whoosh! :-)

kimoldfield - 25 Nov 2010 10:30 - 107 of 382

Sod it! I missed a really good buying opportunity just before 9am didn't I?!! :o(

Dil - 25 Nov 2010 10:46 - 108 of 382

Me too , had to pay 604.8p for another 1500 just now !

Dil - 25 Nov 2010 10:47 - 109 of 382

Easy 30% by Monday :-)

kimoldfield - 25 Nov 2010 10:50 - 110 of 382

Is that all? :o(

;o)

Dil - 25 Nov 2010 11:04 - 111 of 382

It'll do for starters.

Been a great long termer and trading share for me ... hope it don't crash that would bugger things a bit :-)

kimoldfield - 25 Nov 2010 11:50 - 112 of 382

Or a fire to set alight the satellite!

Dil - 25 Nov 2010 12:19 - 113 of 382

Or it might not work ... sell sell lol

kimoldfield - 25 Nov 2010 13:43 - 114 of 382

:o)

Dil - 25 Nov 2010 15:10 - 115 of 382

Pilot's been named ... go Stevie , go Stevie :-)

Stevie-Wonder-61175.jpg

Dil - 25 Nov 2010 15:14 - 116 of 382

Bought another 1500 at 598p ... call me stupid this time in 2 years.

Dil - 25 Nov 2010 15:17 - 117 of 382

Not showing , must have gone through on plus market.

Dil - 25 Nov 2010 15:21 - 118 of 382

Mug traders piled in on 8th and 9th of November hoping for a pre lift off rally and now exiting at a loss imo.

Ta guys :-)

Dailos - 25 Nov 2010 15:45 - 119 of 382

Been buying all week on dips, am due to fly out for the Ashes next week, if the launch goes tits up then i'll have to downgrade flights, am very overweight in AVN!
IQE looks good.
d.

Dil - 25 Nov 2010 15:54 - 120 of 382

Just overweight I heard.
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