.

Worth a watch - Lex on Falklands/Noble deal.

http://video.ft.com/v/1773416535001/Falklands-oil-bubbling-up-

.

Bit of mis-reporting in the media saying results in 2 months (they seem to forget well operations include 14 days allocated to P&A - as was the case with Darwin and Stebbing - 14 days is P&A duration).

Based on normal operational timing and without there being any significant delays the below should be the timescales for final RNS and move to Scotia well location - how many RNS come during drilling operations, nobody knows, could be two before a final RNS about TD and Three Bears lowest target.


Spud Friday 3rd August - KNOWN

Well operations (inclusive of P&A) to be 60 days - KNOWN

Total drilling/casing/testing time circa 45 days - KNOWN DRILLING OPS TIME FROM EIS

RNS after completing casing and any testing of T1/T1 deep ???? - UNKNOWN

RNS after extra casing run and testing on any Triggs find ???? - UNKNOWN

TD reached/wireline run on Three Bears for final RNS 17th September - SHOULD BE

P&A of Loligo 14 days from 17th Sept - TWO WEEKS OF P&A OPS PART OF WELL OPS

P&A complete on Loligo 3rd October 2012 - END OF 60 DAY WELL OPS AS PER RNS

Move to Scotia well location and set up 3 days - NORMAL

Scotia Spud date 6th October 2012 - ESTIMATED BASED ON ABOVE


http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201208060700073302J

............is pleased to announce the Loligo exploration well 42/07-01 was spudded on Friday 3 August 2012..............

...........It is anticipated that the well operations will be around 60 days.....................

And no mention of when updates will be made, unlike BOR............. leaving the door open to multiple RNS during the operations period, as was intimated during the AGM.


EIS says 45 days to 50 days drilling time giving overall well operations of 60 to 65 days.

Proselenes,

I know posters knock you for your volume of posts, but yesterday I put about 2 hours into research similar to your last post contents.
On reading your last post, I saw that it had more in depth figures than my research, so I scrapped mine.
Good nice clear graph!
It goes to show what work you put in, whether others agree with your posts or not.

Regards Geek.

greek, a lot of the flack people give me is because I put actual data into the grasp of those who might find it difficult to do so, be it due to time or due to knowledge of where to get it all.

If I put this information out there it means those who want to be disruptive and talk nonsense are limited in doing so, as the facts and links and info is readily available.

Its why a few people really get annoyed I make such information available for all to "Do Their Own Research" but one must remember, bulletin boards are the playground for short term traders and their emotions.

Could not agree more.

Also like you, I might answer a poster no matter how obvious his ramp or de-ramp is, but only once or twice.
I can never understand why some posters continually 'bite' back, as all it does is clutter the thread, even if you have the offending original poster on Squelch.

That’s the problem if Pro kept to the facts but he mixes it with up with all the other little voices telling him what to say in his head.

Like condensed gas is worth more than oil as he was holding BOR at the time…..classic!!

Hi Markymar,

From memory (could be wrong) I can't remember him saying gas was worth more than oil, but that the gas find could be worth producing.
Time will obviously tell on that issue.
As in my previous posts, I have stated that I never take what anyone says as true without checking for myself, unless its obvious of course.
I was only attempting to point out that some posters do nothing but knock what others post without backing up what they are saying.

Note that I do not include you in this.

I accept that we can all get carried away on waves of rich rewards, so tend to push any positives whilst shunning the negatives.

Greekman, I take it markymar has said something (I have him squelched).

I guess he is talking about BOR ?

Condensate often sells for a higher price than oil. - This is FACT.

Gas sells for a lower price than oil - This is FACT.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9402475/Borders-and-Southern-Petroleum-shares-plunge-70pc-after-Falkland-Islands-well-disappoints.html

.....................Borders & Southern's disappointment follows the company's initial success when its first well, also drilled south of the islands, found gas condensate, a liquid which often trades at a premium to crude oil.

Oil exploration by British companies off the.............


I guess the squelched poster is trying to say I said gas is more valuable than oil ? An idiot if that is true. Condensate is more valuable than oil, but not dry gas or wet gas, only condensate discoveries.

Of course you have me squelched as i don’t let you get away with your ramping and lies.

After nearly a year of ramping BOR you realised it was a lost course and sold out and this was your last de-ramp post.

Proselenes - 16 Jul 2012 15:04 - 1022 of 1044
200 million barrels of condensate on its own is not commercial as you have to deal with the gas produced as well. Its theoretically commercial, but practically not, not until lots of other finds are made near to it.

It’s too small as a standalone and I do not think anyone is going to be putting money into BOR to drill again. Darwin will be a stranded discovery that nobody will be interested in for many many years - perhaps not until the BOR license expires if they are unable to raise funds to drill again and comply with the license requirements.


I sold out of BOR ages ago at a profit when the rig had mechanical problems which I pointed out on the thread.

I hold many FOGL shares but also aware of the small 15% COS it has but i believe it will spike at some point as people chase rainbows.
I may also keep a few as the drill bit comes to an end as if successful it will be many pounds above share price at moment if they strike lucky if not they have a further 2 drills for the share price to recover so this risk reward has got to be one of the best around.
I hope FOGL do strike oil.

They you go Greek Pro still holding his BOR shares trying to justify that gas is worth more than oil.....he ranted on how good the find was then he sold later on hence his last post above on BOR thread........he is the biggest fake of all boards

Proselenes - 23 Apr 2012 07:27 - 543 of 1044
Lovely - a condensate discovery and massive one as well, no wonder BOR are pleased to announce it !


Condensate sells for a premium to Brent Crude.

A billion barrels of condensate - well ........... worth even more than a billion barrels of API32 crude.

The Times was half right, The Sun was half right.

markymar

15% COS
I suggest you inprove your Research.
FOGL 20% COS and only 2 Drill slots not enough time to drill 3rd now Rig already contracted for mid Jan 2013.

The best thing to do markymar is to post on your own thread if you feel that way, you and cynic are getting a little obsessive about Pro

.

which (greekman) rather takes us back to the point i made a couple of days ago re picking and choosing and using common sense!

slightly off-subject, LNG prices are currently very weak

Proselenes is making estimations that FOGL's sp will be between £22 & £33. He backs it up, but I still think its a bit biased because Fox-Davies have conservative estimates of the share price reaching only £1.00.

Now that's a big difference. Condensate isn't worth more than crude. That's why the BOR sp fell back in April. All Pro has to back that up is some dodgy article written by a journalist who got things mixed up. Journalists often get facts wrong, like Tom Bulford. I'm pretty sure there is no other source he can cite online that shows that condensate is worth more than gas.

Did Proselenes once say she was a woman. Correct me if I'm wrong but Pro may be a woman!

Time to masturbate. She'll make me hit the roof. I haven't been laid yet this year, so I have to think laterally sometimes..

http://www.google.ie/imgres?q=arianny+celeste&um=1&hl=en&sa=N&rlz=1C2RNAN_enIE460IE460&biw=1024&bih=667&tbm=isch&tbnid=bET0t6oKJlsVoM:&imgrefurl=http://joeyvoodoo.com/tag/arianny-celeste/&docid=BNhnLH2IjkSROM&imgurl=http://joeyvoodoo.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/arianny31.jpg&w=500&h=693&ei=5UchUKqSNYS3hAev6oDICA&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=342&vpy=292&dur=385&hovh=264&hovw=191&tx=73&ty=230&sig=101853454082403425424&page=2&tbnh=135&tbnw=106&start=21&ndsp=26&ved=1t:429,r:15,s:21,i:238

http://www.sparkstrader.com/oilbarrel-falklands-oil-and-gas-fogl-farm-in-review/

Submitted by SparksTrader • about 2 hours ago Website: oilbarrel.com

FOGL Spuds Much-Anticipated Loligo Wildcat And Brings In Noble Energy For Future Drilling

You wait years for a farm-in partner and then two come along at once. That at least is the experience of shareholders in Falklands Oil & Gas, who have long been keen for the AIM-quoted explorer to land farm-in deals that would help set a benchmark for the company’s huge tracts of the Falklands offshore. Shares in the company were up 13 per cent in Monday morning trading at 84.75 pence on news that deepwater exploration powerhouse Noble Energy would be farming into its frontier acreage in the southern Atlantic.

This is a big confidence boost for shareholders. A previous farm-in partner, natural resources giant BHP Billiton, exited last year, a move that did little to reassure investors about the prospectivity of these remote waters. But 2012 has allayed fears that the international oil and gas industry didn’t share FOGL’s view that it is sitting on a world class play with a multi-billion barrel resource. In June, the company bagged Edison International, the Italian energy company now controlled by French utility giant EDF, which will earn a 25 per cent stake in FOGL’s Northern Area Licences by paying US$40 million in cash plus spending about US$50 million on two wildcats and well planning costs.

Now FOGL has landed NYSE-quoted Noble, which is something of a coup. Noble has made significant discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico, West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean, where it broke new ground with the giant Tamar and Leviathan gas discoveries. Now Noble is adding the Falkland Islands to its portfolio.

The news came on the same day that FOGL announced the spud of its Loligo wildcat some 200 km east of the Falkland Islands. The well, which FOGL operates with a 75 per cent interest, will take some 60 days to drill and is testing an estimated 4.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent in five separate reservoirs. FOGL always said that if Loligo was successful it would then either drill another well into Loligo or the Nimrod prospect but that if Loligo didn’t deliver it would then drill a different play, the Scotia prospect. The company now says it is pushing to drill Scotia in Q4 this year, which suggests new farm-in partner Noble is keener on the Mid Cretaceous Scotia type play rather than the Tertiary-aged stratigraphic trap style prospect of Loligo or Nimrod.

This is certainly confirmed by the farm-in terms. Noble will farm-in for 35 per cent of the Northern Area Licences and will take over operatorship in early 2013. This will leave FOGL with 40 per cent, Noble with 35 per cent and Edison with 25 per cent. Confusingly, however, there are two excluded areas –the Loligo complex and the Nimrod-Garrodia complex – where Noble will not participate in certain stratigraphic horizons and FOGL will retain a 75 per cent interest with Edison holding 25 per cent. Noble will participate in the other horizons. Noble will also take on 35 per cent of the Southern Area Licences and assume operatorship of these by early 2014. This puts the equity split at FOGL with 52.5 per cent, Noble with 35 per cent and Edison with 12.5 per cent.

In return, Noble will pay US$25 million in back costs – to be paid in January 2013 – and pay 60 per cent of the costs of the Scotia well, which is set to drill in late 2012. It will also pay 45 per cent of a discretionary exploration well. Its total spend over the next three years will be between US$180 million and US$230 million.

This is good news, removing much of the financial risk for FOGL. After drilling both the Loligo and Scotia wells, it reckons it will still have US$200 million in cash, limiting the downside for investors and providing scope for additional 3D seismic work. FOGL is eying further exploration drilling in late 2014, of up to four exploration wells.

The farm-out also provides further industry validation of FOGL’s geological models. And while Edison brought on board a respected and deep-pocketed partner, Noble adds the exploration credentials that really count. Noble’s CEO Charles D. Davidson says his company has identified numerous oil leads on 2D data with an unrisked gross resource potential exceeding 6 billion barrels of oil. Such is the scale of FOGL’s acreage position – a whopping 40,000 sq km - that this deal will increase Noble’s net leasehold position by 40 per cent.

What’s more, the deal adds a further buffer against the political risks of operating in these disputed waters. Argentina continues its sabre-rattling, threatening legal action against oil companies working offshore the islands. Now Buenos Aires must contend with a mighty US corporate as well as the French, Italians and British. Spain, of course, after the expropriation of YPF from its oil giant Repsol, is already in strong opposition to the current regime in Buenos Aires. When you’re seeking support for a sovereignty claim, it isn’t helpful to have US and EU powers aligned against you and it’s another reason for investors to be glad of Noble’s involvement.

Analysts certainly welcomed the move. Ian McLelland, Head of Oil & Gas at Edison Investment Research, said this was a “transformation deal both for FOGL and the Falklands explorers in general”, confirming a longer term exploration commitment beyond 2012 and again confirming the resource potential of the basins. “The fact that this can increase $15bn market cap Noble’s net leasehold by over 40pc indicates just how important the Falklands can be on a global scale for the oil industry,” said McLelland.

The "discretionary well" in the Noble farm out RNS could well be the 3rd drilling slot (5th of the 4 firm +1 option), which is an option but will be very high cost now - the day rate will be much higher and so perhaps why 45% Noble - they would have to stump up a bigger portion if they wish to have it drilled so that FOGL end up paying in effect the same day rate as now, Noble take the hit for the premium price. The option slot (the 5th well) is still there but the rig operator has demanded a high premium if FOGL or BOR want to use it. It expired (from the original deal) and then it was re-granted at a much higher rate and is still open if someone wants to pay the premium to drill a 5th well.

Why ?

Well the Oil Barrel article ( http://www.sparkstrader.com/oilbarrel-falklands-oil-and-gas-fogl-farm-in-review/ ) suggests that Noble are interested in the Mid-Cretaceous prospects, whether that is correct or not I do not know as it appears FOGL kept them out of the Tertiary at Loligo and Nimrod as FOGL wanted to retain the lions share given all the work they have done.

But if we take that theory forward there is a rather mammoth (bigger than Loligo) mid-cretaceous target sat there called Diomedia. It is potential 5.3 billion recoverable barrels P50 (from OIP of circa 17.5 billion barrels). Its the big orange lead in the middle of the pic below.



As far as I know - and I do not know completely, it was deemed too deep (under sea bed) for CSEM and therefore FOGL ignored it for the first drilling round as they wanted only CSEM positive targets and anything deemed "too deep" or "negative CSEM" was ignored.

Now, with a 5.3 billion P50 recoverable potential down there called Diomedia - which is bigger than Loligo of FOGL or Nimrod of CHAR, you can see the attraction for Noble to pay a premium and stick the drill in it and give it a poke.

They will of course probably wait for Scotia results - they will want to see good reservoir sands in the mid-cretaceous (as per Toroa results) and also gas/oil there - so I would take a guess that discretion will be used, they may start working on well design etc... now, such that they can submit and make a snap decision yes or no the moment they have information from Scotia drilling.

It may also not be Diomedia, there is another mid-cretaceous lead close to Scotia, its the 1.3 billion barrel recoverable P50 potential Hersilia (to the left of Scotia), or it could be the mid-cretaceous lead Hero (to the south of Scotia) at a mere 1.1 billion barrels potential recoverable P50.

Pro , well researched as always ! The out look for FOGL long term is simply Staggering !!!