Tesco is one of the worlds leading international retailers. Since the company first the trading name of Tesco, in the mid 1920s, the group has expanded into different formats, different markets and different sectors. The UKs leading retailer Tesco was floated on the stock exchange in 1947 and in 1995 took over rival Sainsburys position as the UK number one. The principal activity of the group is food retailing, with over 2,000 stores worldwide. Tesco has a long term strategy for growth, based on four key parts: growth in the Core UK business, to expand by growing internationally, to be as strong in non-food as in food and to follow customers into new retailing services. The company launched a home shopping service in 2000, allowing customers to order their shopping online. Tesco is now expanding its convenience stores and overseas into areas such as Taiwan, Malaysia, Poland, the US and Ireland.

Upper graph = 12 month share price with 6 month moving average
Lower graph = 12 month volume (red line = volume average).

And nothing to do with you Mr Leahy -


Leahy: Tesco lost its way — but the worst could be over


http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Retail_and_leisure/article1478591.ece

The Guardian has something similar:

Tesco has stopped focusing on what it does well, says Sir Terry Leahy
Supermarket’s former chief executive says it has lost touch with loyal customers, but that it may see some respite as the economy improves
Shane Hickey
The Guardian, Sunday 2 November 2014 14.53 GMT

Tesco is 'a very big brand in the centre of the market', said Sir Terry Leahy.

The former chief executive of Tesco, Sir Terry Leahy, has said the troubled supermarket has drifted away from its core business and lost contact with its loyal customer base.

Leahy said the company had “focused too much on what it isn’t, rather than remembering what it is”. However, he added that Tesco and its three main competitors may soon see some respite as the economy improves.

“What it is is a very big brand in the centre of the market, and clearly if you’re weak in the centre you can get attacked from all sides,” he said in comments made during a conference call organised by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, reported by the Sunday Times. “But if you’re strong in the centre and doing what you do well, it’s a good place to be – you can attract customers from all parts of the market.”

Leahy took over as chief executive of Tesco in 1997 and left in 2011 after a stewardship that garnered him a reputation as one of Britain’s most successful businessmen. Despite Tesco’s dominant performance during his reign, Leahy’s legacy has been criticised by his predecessor and mentor, Lord MacLaurin, who described a failed attempt to break the US market as “disastrous”.

Leahy was succeed by Philip Clarke, who resigned from his position in July after failing to halt a slide in sales and profits.

Last week the ratings agency Moody’s said the supermarket could see its debt downgraded to junk unless it outlines plans to cut borrowing and improve trading. In September a £263m accounting hole was discovered which resulted in the suspension of eight senior members of staff. The Serious Fraud Office has launched an investigation into the matter. Last month Tesco’s chairman, Sir Richard Broadbent, said he was stepping down, as the retailer announced a 92% slump in first-half profits.

Leahy said during the conference call that the four main supermarkets – Tesco, Asda, Morrisons and Sainsbury’s – “may have seen the worst” during a period when discount supermarkets such as Aldi and Lidl have been making gains. He said the economy would now provide a “more favourable backdrop” for the supermarkets and that the discounters’ growth may slow.

“You may start to see a situation where the hugely disruptive effect of poorer consumers and [discount] competitors starts to be accommodated by the main players and they start to respond to it,” he said.

Philip Clarke was replaced by Dave Lewis, the head of Unilever’s personal care business. Leahy told those on the call that they “may be surprised how quickly you could see signs of improvement in [Tesco]. It’s very responsive to the right leadership and the right marketing strategy”.

Leahy said the new chief executive had “emphasised the need to focus on customers” and that the company worked best when it followed trends and focused on consumer behaviour.

A spokesperson for Tesco refused to comment on the remarks by the former chief executive. Leahy could not be contacted.

Exec Line, I hope in the next few days he gets slated from Ian MacLaurin, as he has on several occasions in the past. What a load old toffee above , Tesco have never talked to customers in years since the old man died. He would be out on the shop floors asking customers what they thought etc.

sharecast =Tesco is considering selling a stake in its bank business as part of a plan to raise billions of pounds of capital, the Sunday Telegraph reported. The supermarket group is in the early stages of looking at a partial float of Tesco Bank to raise between £500m and £1bn. Analysts now expect Tesco to raise lots of cash to turn round its ailing business. Options include selling or floating the bank, spinning off its Asian business and selling Dunnhumby, the unit behind its Clubcard loyalty programme.
Tesco has lost its identity and connection with customers, but the big supermarkets may be past the worst of their troubles, Tesco's former Chief Executive Sir Terry Leahy said. The Sunday Times reported that Leahy made his comments on a conference call for Bank of America Merrill Lynch clients. Leahy, who left Tesco in 2011 and chairs B&M, said with oil prices falling and real wage growth on the way back, market conditions for the large grocers could ease. Tesco might surprise the industry with the speed of its recovery under new boss Dave Lewis, he added.

Whatever he City may think, we have yet to discover the aftermath of so-called watchdogs of finances, ( Which may have been dozing for years and will maybe need some catch-up and PR, to achieve Public Confidence ).

-And what a pity these same/similar bodies weren't able to exercise inspection for Banks, some might add-

Then TESCO has the spectre of Public confidence to contend with - loyal customers will continue to shop there, because it's near where they travel/live/etc.

...If they sell-off their other "non-core" ( city=speak for "It's not a fire-sale"), businesses - will the cash be worth the loss? I suspect not, but Execs are only interested in short-term figures and if they can maintain the Dividend, that may help to keep Investors from staying away....

And thirdly, it seems the likes of Lidl/Aldi ( and Morrisons, too if their TV ads are true) are seen as "Better value" and certainly Lidl do have many cheaper products which appear to be close/equal in quality.

So as I see it, there are THREE points against Tesco . . . and only one ( the Local-Loyal customers) - but that good-point was always present....and Tesco needs to address those THREE . . . . and whilst "time" will help, I don't see the figures ever getting back to where they were prior to this recent "revelation".

That's not say that speculators can't make money ( don't they always?), but in the long-term the truth will always carry the most weight . . . and I don't see [TSCO] sp returning to £4 for quite a while yet.
Currently 173p

Interesting to see Sains booking a one-off impairment charge of £628m on the value of existing stores and the cost of mothballing 40 proposed developments. The value of Tesco stores has come under the microscope.

Sharecast -


'Big Four' supermarkets could face closures, Waitrose boss warns

Sun, 16 November 2014


UK supermarkets Tesco, Morrisons, Asda and Sainsbury could be forced to close some of their stores, Waitrose chief Mark Price has warned.
Price, who has been notably vocal about the current picture on the grocery market in recent times, said it would be "incredibly hard to call" whether the 'big four' supermarkets would survive the difficulties facing the sector.

Traditional retailers have struggled to keep up with the growing popularity of discount supermarkets such as Aldi and Lidl, which have both dramatically increased their market share as that of the big four has dwindled.

Speaking in an interview with the Telegraph at a Waitrose store in Salisbury, Price said: "This is as fundamental as supermarkets coming into the UK in the 1950s and reinventing what food shopping was all about.

"I think we are at one of those inflection points where customers are acting differently and retailers are going to have to respond to it.

"Look at B&Q. Look at Homebase. I think that food is probably four or five years behind non-food. What you have seen over the last five years is 12% of non-food space taken out of the market. "You have had no food space retired over that period.

"In fact what you have been seeing is food space growing by 3-5%. So, more and more space has been added at a time before you get the impact of internet, convenience shopping and all the other shifts that we talked about."

Tesco’s China stores a drag on its partner

http://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/tescos-china-stores-a-drag-on-its-partner-9860797.html

I understand that all Supermarket woes are down to Lidl and Aldi - Phew, I wonder how these tiddlers cope?
Fact is they don't need to...the Supermarkets have chosen to blame the newcomers ( and some turnover may have slipped their way, but it's been gradual, so will already be old-news ). What supermarkets haven't noticed is that folks aren't buying things they don't need.
I believe this is why their TO is slipping....Folks are buying only the basics, so more Stuff is not selling like it used to and TO suffers ( because these are more-expensive items ).
It would be interesting for Tesco (say) to break-down their sales by department AND by spend - - - whereas folks might still buy light-bulbs, extension leads, etc. they probably don't need another big Telly.
Morrison is claiming it price-matches Aldi ( DYOR ), so that's a bad line to take when Morrison's store-costs are so much higher. I expect Tesco and others may follow suit. which is good for consumers, but BAD if your local Tesco closes and you have no car.
Another reason for poor performance may be the free-delivery offered for On-Line orders . . . .
TSCO today 192p, just a tad up from recent low.

Tesco leads sales falls in the last three months, Nielsen says

Fri, 21 November 2014


Ailing supermarket group Tesco came out at the wrong end of another set of sales data on the UK's food retailers on Friday.


http://sharecast.com/news/tesco-leads-sales-falls-in-the-last-three-months-nielsen-says/22251131.html

Blackrock > 5%

I agree with hangon ( 17 Nov )

It is said that Aldi and Lidl are taking business from Tesco - doubt that is the story.
If you have been in either of those two stores, you see goods in baskets disarranged
by customers and out of boxes etc, and they offer only a fraction of the commodities offered by clean looking Tesco and Morrisons.

It is probably more fundamental that sales are not increasing, and that
punters / customers do not have the spending power of late.
Look at M &S they are in a similar situation and we do not say they are being
undercut by Aldi and Lidl.

Maybe the big supermarkets are now essentially ex growth.
They may need to expand more abroad, by buying up other operators ?

Disagree, Tesco is losing market share and about a million shoppers a week to the discount stores. Why do you think that the likes of Tesco and Sainsbury are going to have to close stores in the future . This is down to a drastic drop in shoppers through the doors.

Lidl's are just about to open a massive new super store about a mile away from me in Bedfordshire,it was ultra busy before the old store closed 3 months ago,this new Lidl store will certain take a massive amount of folks from the local Tesco and Sainsburys.

The food that you can buy in these discount supermarket is of the highest quality but at a much lower price,the big 4 food retailers that we have all shopped at for decades in my opinion are 'have beens',the change has just started and it will only get worse for the big 4.

Will some merge or close i dont have a answer for that one,but the way that things are going with the interent is it possible that stores will close and we do all our weekly shopping online and then a van arrives at our front door,i think that is a great possibility as its all ready gathering momentum.

The big stores that they have currently could close down and turned into housing estates as all they would need in theory are warehouses and the odd small shop.

Lidl and Aldi came to Britain in the early 90's. The Uk supermarkets have just sat and watched them for 24 odd years.

Online/delivery - you have to ask why Aldi and the likes have avoided this service to date.
Tesco charge a delivery cost but nothing like the £20 true cost to deliver to your door.
There are pickers, to select your order, driver wages, chilled van costs/fuel. Vast overheads. Discount stores are growing turnover at twice the rate online shopping is growing. So you have to ask why are they still so keen to push online shopping. Great for the customer but for every store shopper that switches to home delivery, the store customer is picking up the overheads in their shopping purchases. Will Tesco ditch this service ? I just wonder if one supermarket does, will they all follow. Just as one supermarket delivered first and they all followed like sheep. Aldi clearly sees customers prefer to shop in a smaller store and for the huge cost saving are prepared to pick their own shopping up. I see home delivery being ditched especially if customer head counts still drop in stores as the overheads will be impossible to meet.

Tesco property time bomb
By Trader Talk
November 22 2014, 7:00am

Competition from fast-growing German discounters Lidl and Aldi have sparked a price war, chipping away at the market share of their bigger competitors. Market leader Tesco (Epic: TSCO) is bearing the brunt, with sales falling 3.7% in the period, while Lidl and Aldi added 16.8% and 25.5% respectively. Tesco’s overall market share is down to 28.7% from almost 30% 12 months ago.

It is also becoming harder to value these businesses, with the value of assets underpinning the shares falling, little clarity on future profitability and dividends being cut. Investors have often talked about the assets of the UK supermarkets supporting the valuation, with the value of Tesco property said to be worth £21 billion, over 30% more than the market capitalisation.

Yet there are growing concerns over the quality of those assets, with the gap between the performance of large out-of-town stores and convenience stores widening, undermining the value of these out-of-town warehouses. Sainsbury’s recently took a charge of £663 million related to its property portfolio, while some analysts argue that Tesco’s assets could be worth less than half the book value indicated on the balance sheet.

Tesco still trades on a relatively full 12x prospective earnings, although falling revenues, profits and a failure to issue full-year profit guidance makes it hard to value the business. Tesco’s interim results on 23rd October showed net profit fell to £6 million in the six months to 23rd August, compared with £820 million in the same period last year, while revenue dropped 4.5% to £30.47 billion.

The groups pension deficit ballooned by £800 million since February to £3.4 billion, squeezed by declining returns on corporate debt. Meanwhile, the interim dividend has already been slashed by 75% and management are expected to cut the final by a similar amount, leaving an annual yield of 2.5%.







The chart of Tesco illustrates the 18-month downtrend, with the 50-day moving average providing resistance to any spikes. After rallying 15% in the past month, the shares appear to have run out of steam, with the bearish divergence evident from the declining oscillators, indicating the underlying momentum is fading.

Tesco has fallen a long way, but with margins under pressure, assets vulnerable to write-downs and an ongoing investigation by the serious fraud office for fiddling its accounts, leaves Tesco susceptible to further weakness.

At the time of writing the share price is 194.0p and the downward momentum suggests trading short. Near term targets are seen at 186.25p, 177.5p and 167.8p, while a stop-loss above resistance at 201.75p could be used to minimise risk





http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/trader-talk/17361/tesco-property-time-bomb-17361.html

It had to come -



Tesco shareholders take legal action against food retailer

Tue, 25 November 2014



Price: 188.25

Chg: -5.15

Chg %: -2.66%

Date: 16:20

Tesco shareholders decided to take legal action against the food retailer after the troubled giant declared a £263m hole found in profits.
The action, conducted by Stewarts Law firm, will seek to establish that shareholders are entitled to compensation for losses caused by Tesco's alleged breaches of the Financial Services & Markets Act arising from overstating its earnings.

Litigation firm Bentham Europe will fund the shareholders action which is expected to proceed within the next six months.

Tesco is currently being investigated by the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) after overstating its profits by £263m last month.

The Stewarts Law said it will allege that directors and senior management "knew or were reckless as to whether Tesco's statements to the market were untrue or misleading and/or dishonestly concealed the true position".

John Walker, managing director of Bentham Europe, said: "Shareholders are justifiably concerned that Tesco has misrepresented its earnings resulting in material losses.

"We expect the legal claim to reveal the true extent of the problem and allow shareholders to seek compensation for harm suffered."

Sean Upson, partner at Stewarts Law, said: "We expect to issue proceedings against Tesco in the High Court in London within 6 months.

"We do not intend to wait for the outcome of the SFO investigation which may take some years."

Shares in Tesco were down 1.81% to 189.9p at 12:03 on Tuesday.

The point I was making ( FWIW ) is that the Big Supermarkets are not losing market-share as such to the discounters, The opening of Lidl in Bedfordshire will take away customers ( if only to see what's new in town), but that is a specific event and if the Lidl tills are poorly manned ( which is common ), and the range of stock somewhat limited ( as has been mentioned here ), I suspect the Tesco-lost customers in 3-month's time will be those who have little spending power - and therefore the Tesco (Bedford) TO will take far less of a knock, that many suggest.
As to closing stores;
this was a suggestion by a financier that was looking at the T/O woes. But does it make sense,? -for every store Tesco closes will directly affect T/O.
I suspect the solution is to play the car-park card - Lidl are introducing severe penalties for overstaying - and as a result I have reduced my spend there . . . since it's so much easier to visit Tesco and with the discounters counter-action, Tesco prices can be surprisingly similar - and THAT is where the Tesco T/O is falling - even if the customers remain loyal.

Another Poster suggested that an issue is the recent Financial Reporting which caught Tesco ( er, and their Auditors?, Ahem )...... that surely is a Major reason for the sp fall . . . since the expected profits were an illusion, weren't they?

BBC News 24 November 2014 Last updated at 00:14
By Bill Swale
Business reporter

The couple who helped transform the way we shop
Clive Humby and Edwina Dunn

The couple have been married for 32 years after first meeting when working in the same office.

As the owners of a small business with just 30 members of staff, Edwina Dunn and her husband Clive Humby shouldn't have been in Tesco's boardroom.

Yet back in 1994 they had been invited to give a presentation to Tesco's directors.

What Ms Dunn and Mr Humby said that day enabled the supermarket group to double its market share in little more than a year, transformed the way many of us shop, and ultimately made the couple multimillionaires.

After they had finished their presentation, an awkward silence followed for more than a minute.

“The thing to remember is that data was thrown away in those days... there was no such thing as data mining or data profiling, this was all new”
Edwina Dunn

This was eventually broken by Tesco's then chairman, Lord MacLaurin, who made a remark that has gone down in the supermarket's folklore: "What scares me about this is that you know more about my customers after three months than I know after 30 years."

So what was the secret of Ms Dunn and Mr Humby's presentation?

They had shown the Tesco board that their tiny business had the software and skills to do something the supermarket group hadn't been able to do for itself - work out almost exactly what Tesco's customers were buying.

Ms Dunn, now 56, says: "It was the defining moment."

Tesco quickly gave the couple a long-term contract and used their expertise to launch the Tesco Clubcard, the world's first supermarket loyalty card.

Division of labour
Ms Dunn and her husband had set up their business four years earlier, in the kitchen of their home in Chiswick, west London.

Tesco's Clubcard was an immediate success with shoppers
Called Dunnhumby, it was one of the first companies in the UK dedicated to analysing data to best work out the spending patterns of consumers.

Building on work the couple had previously done while both employed at the UK arm of a American software business (where they had first met and married after just one year), Ms Dunn and Mr Humby had a clear division of labour.

He was the software and data expert, and she was the chief executive who would look after the day-to-day running of the business.

Their first client was UK food wholesaler, Booker.

Basket full of groceries
Dunnhumby was able to let Tesco find out exactly what customers were buying
Studying Booker's sales in depth, they were able to advise the company on exactly what its customers were buying, allowing Booker to improve its distribution network.

“It had always been our intention to ultimately exit the business, and we had come to the end of business plan”
Edwina Dunn

Thinking about this these days, many might question why Booker wasn't already doing this itself. But back in 1990 no national retailer was properly collecting and analysing its sales data.

Retailers at the time obviously knew how much they were selling of a particular product, but the key point is that they did not know what combination of items consumers were typically buying. Dunnhumby was able to provide this information.

"The thing to remember is that data was thrown away in those days... there was no such thing as data mining or data profiling, this was all new," says Ms Dunn.

Selling data
In 1994 a senior manager at Tesco got in touch with Dunnhumby because the supermarket giant wanted to launch a loyalty card.

The Clubcard helped Tesco establish itself as the UK's largest supermarket group
The card would give customers special offers and money-off coupons, in return for Tesco finding out a lot more about what people were buying. Only the company was having difficulty dealing with all the data.

"They were struggling with their pilot, there was just so much data that they couldn't manage it," says Ms Dunn. "Remember that computers were not what they are today.

“They were happy, and we were happy. And we were tired actually... I just needed a rest”
Edwina Dunn

"So we were invited in to look at their data, and told not to get too excited, as it would only be one-off."

It was the start of a 16-year working relationship between Tesco and Ms Dunn and Mr Humby.

Thanks to Dunnhumby's help, Tesco was able to successfully pilot its Clubcard across nine stores in 1994, and then launch it nationwide a year later.

Ms Dunn explains how Dunnhumby was able to make the data work: "We brought in a statistician's mindset, which was 'some of the data, some of the time'. That is what the technology people at the time didn't grasp."

So she says that while Tesco had been trying to analyse 100% of consumer data, a giant task that was near impossible at the time and very expensive, Dunnhumby was able to show that they could instead just study a 10% sample and still achieve between 95% and 99% accuracy.

Ms Dunn says she and her husband have clearly defined roles so as not to overlap
"When Tesco asked its IT department how long, and how much to do the [nationwide] roll out, they said three years and £50m," says Ms Dunn.

"We said £250,000 and 10 weeks."

The launch of the Clubcard was an immediate hit with Tesco's customers, with millions of people signing up, tempted by the promise of money-off coupons, and special offers that the supermarket group had arranged with the big brand owners, such as Coca-Cola and Nestle.

In just over a year it enabled Tesco to overtake Sainsbury's and become the UK's largest retailer.

But how exactly did Dunnhumby make millions of pounds from its contract with Tesco?

Firstly Tesco paid it an annual fee, but more importantly - and much more lucratively - Dunnhumby got a share of the money Tesco started to receive from selling to the likes of Coca-Cola the vast amount of consumer data it was now collecting.

Exit plan
Ms Dunn describes the start of the working relationship with Tesco as an "amazingly intense phase".

Dunnhumby's workforce "immediately" went from 30 to 70, and then continued to more than double every year.

"That was the fastest we could grow, it was our maximum capacity, as we couldn't hire and train enough people," she says.

Ms Dunn and her husband are now studying celebrities such as Rihanna on social media

With Tesco's blessing, Dunnhumby was soon signing similar deals with supermarket groups around the world, and then in 2002, Tesco bought a 53% stake in the business.

In 2010, Ms Dunn and Mr Humby eventually sold the remainder of the business to Tesco, pocketing a widely reported £93m in total.

Ms Dunn says: "It had always been our intention to ultimately exit the business, and we had come to the end of business plan. We had exceeded our numbers, and Tesco gave us more than they had promised.

"They were happy, and we were happy. And we were tired actually... I just needed a rest."

Yet after six months of relaxation in the Caribbean and Mediterranean, Mr Humby and Ms Dunn were keen to start working again.

And so a year ago, they joined a start-up business called Starcount, which aims to study which celebrities people follow on social media, and then sell on the useful information.

"Brands need to know what [and who] people really love. Only then can they introduce their brands in a way which feels relevant and personal."

Ms Dunn happily admits that Starcount is yet to make money, but earlier this year she helped it to secure multi-million pound investment.

And while she doesn't comment on Tesco's recent woes - the supermarket group revealed in September that it had overstated its profit guidance - Ms Dunn says she hopes it will continue to be committed to its Clubcard.