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Xcite Energy - North Sea Heavy Oil (XEL)     

Proselenes - 22 Oct 2009 11:14

.

Balerboy - 24 Mar 2011 08:28 - 1361 of 3002

Good find marky, encouraging. NPE have taken a knock but EO. hasn't changed much at the mo.

markymar - 24 Mar 2011 08:28 - 1362 of 3002

I would think the company will be taken over by 2017.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/686/rupert-cole-of-xcite-energy-believes-theres-still-significant-upside-on-asset-value-.html

During the Proactive Investor interview, R. Cole can be quoted as saying we're currenty valued at $4 to $5 per barrel"

...if we should be valued somewhere in between $10 and $15, what is the adjusted share price?

....and what is the baseline recoverable figure XEL are using for their calculations?

If we're valued at $4 or $5 a barrel, we can work the numbers forward using $4.5 as an average to determine the projected value / share price.

$10 a barrel = 7.55
$11 a barrel = 8.31
$12 a barrel = 9.04
$13 a barrel = 9.82
$14 a barrel = 10.58
$15 a barrel = 11.34

These figures are based on a figure for the recoverable reserves. @ 3.40p the market cap is 549.5m / $894m. Divide that by $4.5 and you get 200m.

So 200m is the baseline figure they're using to calculate the current value of $4 to $5 per barrel.

Given that the BoD have a track record for providing conservative figures I'm personally treating 200m recoverable as a baseline figure to work up from. If you adjust to 250m or 300m to determine the projected value / share prices you get the following set of figures.

p/barrel 200m 250m 300m
@ $10 7.55 9.44 11.33
@ $11 8.31 10.39 12.47
@ $12 9.04 11.30 13.56
@ $13 9.82 12.28 14.73
@ $14 10.58 13.23 15.87
@ $15 11.34 14.18 17.01

Sequestor - 24 Mar 2011 09:51 - 1363 of 3002

No company pays tax until it makes a profit, NI apart, long time away.

Balerboy - 24 Mar 2011 13:46 - 1364 of 3002

holding up nicely today.,.

markymar - 24 Mar 2011 15:46 - 1365 of 3002

She will be happy baleboy,Cynic was telling me you had a problem in that department.

Balerboy - 24 Mar 2011 18:26 - 1366 of 3002

I've had a viagra injection.........last's for a month :0))

cynic - 24 Mar 2011 18:28 - 1367 of 3002

XEL needs a double dose

markymar - 25 Mar 2011 07:46 - 1368 of 3002

Highlights



v Successful completion and flow testing of the 9/3b-6z 1,800ft horizontal well on the Bentley field, with a stabilised flow rate of 2,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day, significantly exceeding the pre-drill upside reservoir model expectations;



v Successful 9/3b-6 pilot well showing the eastern flank reservoir height to be greater than prognosis, together with 100% net to gross reservoir pay;



v 9/3b-6 and 9/3b-6z wells have provided all the information required to move forward with the reserves assessment currently being undertaken;



v Recent Budget changes in North Sea tax will not affect the Company's plans to move forward with its First Stage Development. The increased benefit of the heavy oil tax allowances will have a material offsetting effect on the increased supplemental corporation tax charge;



v Successful equity capital financings, raising more than 50 million net of expenses to drill the wells on the Bentley field and for working capital purposes;



v Increase in the Standby Equity Distribution Agreement facility to 100 million, of which 32.75 million has been drawn down;



v Contract signed for the Rowan Norway deep water, harsh environment jack-up drilling and production rig to commence the First Stage Production programme on the Bentley field scheduled for late 2011;



v Significant uplift in the market capitalisation of the Company.

markymar - 25 Mar 2011 07:48 - 1369 of 3002

"Recent Budget changes in North Sea tax will not affect the Company's plans to move forward with its First Stage Development. The increased benefit of the heavy oil tax allowances will have a material offsetting effect on the increased supplemental corporation tax charge;"



cynic - 25 Mar 2011 07:58 - 1370 of 3002

and losses up to 2.5m from 0.78m, though that is not really particularly significant

markymar - 25 Mar 2011 08:04 - 1371 of 3002

Its up Cynic thats the main thing news up date cant be far away,will be happy if news delayed so i can get it in my ISA.....

cynic - 25 Mar 2011 08:22 - 1372 of 3002

quite so, but sp has certainly been very dull of late - ditto RKH

markymar - 25 Mar 2011 09:36 - 1373 of 3002

"Following the outstanding success of the 9/3b-6 well at the end of 2010, with the Rowan jack-up rig under contract and the advanced position with the other material aspects of the work programme, the Group is well placed to move ahead with the plans for the First Stage Production (FSP) during 2011.

The effect of the 9/3b-6 well has been to transform the perception of the Group and its value with the investment community as well as the industry itself, enabling a wider selection of business partners to be entertained in key aspects of the Groups development. Indeed we are pleased that we have also been approached by a number of significant business entities who are keen to assist us during 2011 and beyond.

With the Reserves Assessment report currently being constructed, the XER team is confident that this will provide the catalyst required to move ahead rapidly with the FSP work programme and target First Oil in the first quarter of 2012."

Note also they have opened a small office in Guildford area

cynic - 25 Mar 2011 09:40 - 1374 of 3002

where they will also find the likes of BOC (Linde) and Air Liquide from memory

gibby - 25 Mar 2011 09:40 - 1375 of 3002

i am in here longer term
when the sp wacks up further good
sorry to marky and others i may have disagreed with
i wish you all the best
but this epic and current nav

gibby - 25 Mar 2011 09:40 - 1376 of 3002

i am in here longer term
when the sp wacks up further good
sorry to marky and others i may have disagreed with
i wish you all the best
but this epic and current nav

mnamreh - 25 Mar 2011 10:15 - 1377 of 3002

.

gibby - 25 Mar 2011 10:32 - 1378 of 3002

mnarmeh
no ramp xel does not need me or anyone to ramp the company speaks for itself...
appologies i know xel i was in a rush other companies caught my eye on l2 - fast moving inlcudiing val and jjb
imo watch rrl & rrr & ggp
stuff not far away
gl

gibby - 25 Mar 2011 10:35 - 1379 of 3002

and appologies to your great grandson
i am sure he will be well educated as i am but i do rush too often - but hey hoe thats life in the fast lane

gibby - 25 Mar 2011 10:40 - 1380 of 3002

this i the start as you know - new news soon:
imo
Xcite Energy Limited ("XEL") is a TSX-Venture and AIM listed, independent oil company, which is focused on the development of heavy oil resources in the UK North Sea. Through its UK subsidiary Xcite Energy Resources Limited ("XER"), XEL currently owns a 100% working interest in the Bentley heavy oil field on Block 9/3b in the North Sea. The Bentley field is a pre-development asset, with independently assessed, base-case recoverable contingent resources of 122.5 MMbbls. Upside recoverability has the potential to exceed 200MMbbls without enhanced oil recovery techniques. XER is focused on bringing the Bentley field into commercial production during 2011.
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