.

Thats one of my taboo's too, never to chase after a rising stock..

Thankfully i've got my fill with what i'm comfortable with!!!..

difficult one to obey at times

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL6E8JNGFM20120823?pageNumber=1

UPDATE 1-Borders find boosts Falklands oil prospects

Thu Aug 23, 2012 2:28pm GMT


LONDON Aug 23 (Reuters) - British oil explorer Borders & Southern reported positive results from the latest tests at its well off the coast of the disputed Falkland islands, increasing the possibility of a second commercial oil and gas discovery there.

Borders is leading efforts to find oil off the south coast of the remote islands. Exploration in the region by British companies has inflamed tension with Argentina, which claims sovereignty over the islands it knows as the Malvinas, losing a war to Britain over them in 1982.

The explorer said on Thursday that the initial yield from gas condensate samples taken at its well in the South Falkland basin varied from 123 to 140 standard barrels per million cubic feet, more than what analysts said was needed for the find to have commercial potential.

Gas condensate is a liquid which often trades at a premium to crude oil.

"It looks good. It definitely looks good...What (the numbers) mean is that essentially this is a commercial discovery, the first in the South Falkland basin," said Numis analyst Sanjeev Bahl.

"There's potentially more adjacent discoveries to be made, because it's not going to be the only large condensate discovery in the South Falkland basin," he added.

Britain's Rockhopper found oil north of the islands in 2010.

Borders chalked up an initial success in April, when it found gas condensate at its first well, but disappointed with a dry well last month. ............................

Surley it can not be classed as commercial untill its had a full drilling appraisal which it aint yet.

Hali, think cynic is one half of ..... cannon and ball but not sure which he is.,.

more like laurel and hardy ....... whereas BB is the other half of rod hull!

More like Alf Garnett!!!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/826001-is-borders-southern-s-falkland-islands-gas-condensate-discovery-really-commercial


Is Borders & Southern's Falkland Islands Gas Condensate Discovery Really Commercial?

August 24, 2012 | about: BDRSF.PK, includes: FLKOF.PK

On August 23, Borders & Southern (BDRSF.PK) released results of its fluid analysis on the Darwin discovery. You can read the press release here. The results are a 46-49 degree condensate with a mean recoverable volume of 190 million barrels. BOR has also mentioned that a seismic program will be initiated starting in 2013 and future drilling will realistically take place in 2014. BOR is fully funded for the seismic; however, it will be required to raise funds to drill. BOR stock in London is up roughly 37% on the Darwin news.

Is a 190 million barrel condensate find in deep water at the ends of the world truly going to be commercial?

First, the size of the prospect is relatively small given its location. The Falkland Islands are one of the most remote places on the planet. Darwin is in over 2,000 meters of water. Contrast that to Rockhopper's Sea Lion find, which sits in 400m of water. The seas are also much calmer on the North side of the island, with the Southern area closely resembling the North Sea. The technological complexities between these water depths is very significant.

Any partner coming in is obviously going to have less than 100% of the 190MM bbls. Rockhopper had to cut a very unfavorable deal in order to find a partner to develop Sea Lion. Premier took 60% of Rockhopper's Sea Lion find, which, in total, was around 350MM recoverable barrels of oil. Borders is probably going to have to give up a similar portion or more, given the challenges with developing Darwin. If they give up 50%, the partner is going after 95MM bbls. Who is going to bring their operations to the extreme deepwaters of the remote Falkland Islands to develop 95MM bbls of condensate? Field development costs are going to be significant as well, due to the water depth, remote location, and the need for reinjecting gas for pressure maintenance. Something can be stated as commercial on paper, however, getting someone to act on it can be a different thing, given the intangibles you can't present on a piece of paper. Keep in mind Darwin hasn't even been appraised yet. BOR has a single well down. Sea Lion had a full appraisal done before the Premier farm-in. This only adds to the uncertainty of the economics for a potential partner.

I think the future of Darwin is heavily tied to the success or failure of the wells Falkland Oil and Gas (FLKOF.PK) are slated to drill this year. FOGL's massive prospects have already attracted two large industry players even without drilling a single well. If FOGL discovers significant hydrocarbons, it will turn the Falkland Islands into an oil boom that I think would give BOR the synergy it needs to attract an industry partner to develop Darwin. Any partner farming in with BOR after a discovery would be able to take advantage of the economies of scale that are going to come with a FOGL discovery, especially if FOGL finds any significant gas.

Future adjacent discoveries by BOR could also help push Darwin to true commerciality, even without FOGL finding something. Although, if FOGL comes up dry, it may be hard to attract partners to continue exploration in the general Falklands area. How hard will it be to find a partner willing to take on a relatively mediocre Darwin in a very challenging environment and continue needed exploration to try and make the project big enough to be worth it? If BOR can't find a partner, lots of capital will need to be raised through stock dilution to fund further exploration and appraisal of Darwin.

I have had BOR shares since after the Darwin discovery and sold them today after the jump in share price. The share price over the past few days shows the news obviously leaked out before the official announcement. I felt like today was a sell the news event with much still uncertain about the Darwin area and the size not being that large. I still hold my FOGL shares as I believe they are the true key to turning the Falkland Islands into an oil province. FOGL has almost four billion net BOE prospective resources in their first two wells along with having two large energy companies as partners already. Of course, this is the oil and gas industry and wild things happen, so there is a definite possibility I will eat crow on this, but with BOR so dependent on FOGL results, I think I would rather invest money in FOGL for a much better risk reward situation.

Disclosure: I am long FLKOF.PK. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Long FOGL and FLKOF

Final Version :

Luckily FOGL have retained 75% of Loligo, otherwise I would have had to re-work this.

A very rough guide on what success, IF ANY, has in terms of monetary value. Given this mornings Noble farm in I would suspect Noble will farm into Loligo as well, but only after drilling results and any success - allowing FOGL to monetise success very quickly.



Loligo - Interpreting the results of the drill


Loligo is 75% FOGL and 25% Edison SPA (EDF), as according to the recent farm in deal.

First up one should consider the strategic importance of Edison SPA as the farm in partner. Edison are highly experienced in gas and oil exploration/production/distribution. You can see there latest gas PDF brochure on the below link :

Edison SPA (majority owned by EDF)

15.2 billion cubic meters of available natural gas supply. Edison accounts for 19.60% of Italy’s demand for natural gas, 83 concessions and exploration permits in Italy and abroad, 3 natural gas storage centers, 1 LNG terminal, 49.8 billion cubic meters of hydrocarbon reserves.


http://www.edison.it/media/brochure-edison-gas2012.pdf


As can be seen, Edison is a major part of the Italian energy supply system, and its parent company EDF is majority owned by the French government. This brings both the Italian and French governments in with the UK government as having direct opposition to any Argentinean harassment, add on an upset Spanish government over the nationalization of YPF (stealing it from Repsol) and you are seeing a clear picture of major world powers all becoming aligned against Argentina.

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In the South Falklands Basin the weather/sea conditions are similar to the Norwegian North Sea / West of Shetland. Water depths are not extremely deep (Loligo is around 1400m water depth) and most targets are shallower than 1500m water depth.

However, owing the remote location the criteria for a commercial discovery is higher than it would be elsewhere in the world.

Before proceeding some companies quote OIP or GIP figures (these are Oil in Place or Gas in Place figures and are not the same as "recoverable barrels" or "recoverable gas" which is the Oil or Gas figure after the "recovery factor" is applied. Owing to decent reservoir formations one assumes a 32% oil recovery factory and a 50% gas recovery factor on the OIP/GIP figures)


Oil - a find needs to be at least 200 million barrels recoverable to be commercial as a stand alone project. Smaller sizes that this would only be commercial when tied into a bigger development nearby. In reality to gain maximum value from a discovery it needs to be 400 million recoverable barrels in size - owing to economy of scale, the larger the find you hit a point at which its very attractive to develop, as opposed to being able to develop and make money, you come into being able to develop and make a lot of money.

Gas - a find needs to be at least 5 TCF recoverable to be commercial as a stand alone project. Smaller sizes that this would only be commercial when tied into a bigger development nearby. In reality to gain maximum value from a discovery it needs to be 10 TCF recoverable in size - owing to economy of scale, the larger the find you hit a point at which its very attractive to develop, as opposed to being able to develop and make money, you come into being able to develop and make a lot of money.

Condensate - no idea on this. Condensate is more complicated as there has to be gas re-injection in order to gain the maximum recovery of the oils. If you produce the gas and remove it then very soon the well will stop producing condensate and the total recoverable condensate will be very low. You have to therefore re-inject the gas back into the reservoir to maintain pressures so that gas again lifts the condensate out. Condensate often trades at higher than Brent crude per barrel - but its extraction costs are higher than oil due to the processes needed.


MAKE NO MISTAKE AT THIS POINT - LOLIGO IS A 4.7 BBOE recoverable target - thats 4.7 billion barrels of "oil equivalent" that are recoverable based on P50 estimates. THE UPPER TARGETS WILL LIKELY BE GAS - and owing to their mammoth size very commercial as well (which is why Edison SPA farmed in and Falklands gas via LNG could be a major part of Italys future energy supply) - the lower targets could be oil or could be more gas.

As FOGL are drilling well away from the high pressure/temperature area of the Southern South Falklands, they are drilling in the Northern South Falklands, there are no undue concerns about high pressure as was seen by BOR who were drilling in the high pressure Fold Belt area of the Southern South Falklands.


Loligo's 5 targets :


OIL BASIS - This is the LEAST likely end result, IMO.


T1 = 1509 million recoverable barrels - P50

T1 Deep = 644 million recoverable barrels - P50

Trigg and Trigg Deep is 969 million recoverable barrels - P50

Three Bears = 1588 million recoverable barrels - P50


Based on Sea Lion of RKH and therefore using a 4.7US$ per barrel valuation and taking 75% of that for FOGL's share and 320 million shares in issue.

T1 = 1509m*75%*4.7/1.55/320m = £10.72 per FOGL share value if P50 size oil
T1 Deep = 644m*75%*4.7/1.55/320m = £4.57 per FOGL share value if P50 size oil
Triggs = 969m*75%*4.7/1.55/320m = £6.88 per FOGL share value if P50 size oil
3 Bears = 1588m*75%*4.7/1.55/320m = £11.28 per FOGL share value if P50 size oil

If all targets are oil, based on Sea Lion price - potential £33.45 per share.

As FOGL already have a farm in partner and reservoirs are going to be, if there, large massive thick sandstones and simple to develop the price should be higher than Sea Lion's 4.7US$ per barrel, however, I will use that for now to be conservative.

--------------------------------------

GAS BASIS - this is a VERY POSSIBLE outcome to the well on success.


T1 = Circa 9 TCF recoverable - P50

T1 Deep = Circa 3.8 TCF recoverable - P50

Trigg and Trigg Deep is circa 5.8 TCF recoverable - P50

Three Bears = Circa 9.5 TCF recoverable - P50


Based on Cove's (COV) sale and therefore using a 513 millions US$ per TCF recoverable and taking 75% of that for FOGL's share and 320 million shares in issue.

T1 = 9*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £6.98 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
T1 Deep = 3.8*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £2.94 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
Triggs = 5.8*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £4.49 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
3 Bears = 9.5*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £7.36 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas

As FOGL already have a farm in partner and reservoirs are going to be, if there, large massive thick sandstones and simple to develop the price should be higher than Sea Lion's 4.7US$ per barrel, however, I will use that for now to be conservative.

If all targets are gas, based on COV price - potential £21.77 per share.


----------------------------------


GAS UPPER, OIL LOWER - This is the MOST LIKELY end result on success, imo.


Most likely outcome, if successful, would be IMO, gas in T1 and T1 deep, gas in Triggs and a bonus API 18+ oil discovery in 3 Bears.

This combo of oil and gas would give as below, if all were successful and P50 size.

T1 = 9*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £6.98 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
T1 Deep = 3.8*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £2.94 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
Triggs = 5.8*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £4.49 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
3 Bears = 1588m*75%*4.7/1.55/320m = £11.28 per FOGL share value if P50 size oil

Total gas upper/oil lower result = Potential £25.69 per share.


The strategic importance of having Edison SPA on board now in the farm in is very clear. Had FOGL discovered gas, as is to be expected in the upper zones, then they would, like RKH and the small and complex Sea Lion, had to probably accept a low ball offer to get the project moving.

With Edison SPA on board and their expertise in gas FLNG, storage, transportation and with them having a market already which needs much more LNG pumped into it, as in the earlier PDF, any gas discovery with over 5 TCF recoverable in size is likely to get developed. If T1 and T1 deep come in as gas as is expected then immediately Loligo is well past the 10 TCF threshold at which it becomes very commercially attractive to develop, meaning we would see pretty quick development of Loligo imo.

The joker in the pack is Three Bears, this will be the last reservoir target to be drilled and could well be the one that contains the oil there - exciting that if T1 and T1 deep are gas, we have a commercial success and then we have the icing on the cake possibly down below that. If T1 and T1 deep fail, there is still the big one down below to save the day.

Obviously if they have a duster then its a duster and none of the above matters, but it should act as some sort of rough guide with which to value success on a reservoir target by reservoir target basis, be it gas or oil.



Drill hole / casing of the Loligo Well below :




Drilling depths (below mud line - actual drilling depths) rough comparison between RKH Sea Lion well and FOGL Loligo below :




As Loligo has 4 independent potential "company making" targets (putting Trigg/Trigg Deep together as one) I fully expect them to make multiple RNS announcements of progress during drilling, and not just a single one at the end. Had there been a main target and some small secondary ones then yes, maybe one RNS, but with 4 potential company making finds on the way down, I expect updates to come as drilling progresses. The first 2 targets, T1 and T1 deep are under half the actual drilling depth from sea bed/mud line that the Sea Lion main fan was for the RKH drill, so I expect some news fairly soon, perhaps in 3 weeks or so.

The values for oil in the ground and gas in the ground are low, imo, but its worth starting there at low points to please the bears a little.



As ever, all is IMO, NAG, DYOR !! etc..

What people ignore is that :

DES has no money - they are at the mercy of the markets, if they raise money there will be a massive discount. If they farm out there will be a massive discount. Cash poor companies are getting smacked in this market.

RKH, had no money. They were at the mercy of the markets. They had to accept a low ball offer (imo) to get Sea Lion moving. How much are they left with now in terms of net barrels of waxy oil in a very complex reservoir where water flooding might cause many problems ?

BOR, have not a lot of money left now, just enough for 3D, not for drilling. Are now at the mercy of the markets for fund raising at a discount, or farm out at a discount. They are being discounted as they will have to offer a discount, a big one, to get money or farm in partner.

FOGL, have loads of money. Have multi-billion farm in partners in place already. Have targets that will be commercial be they gas, or oil, or condensate. Have multi-billion farm in partners who know all about LNG, gas development, oil development etc........


FOGL have done everything right, and in the event they strike gas, or condensate, or oil, they will undergo a big re-rating.

Proselenes thanks for the reminder of the potential and also the risk, and the different possible senarios...

A rough guide to the bulletin board posters now, as we get into exciting times the "profiles" will all come out.

Long term holder - purchased or topped up during the 40's and 50's pence levels, happily sat on a near 100% profit as of now, happy to hold for the results, posting positively but not hiding that the risk is here, this is wildcat drilling and things could be dusty or watery.

Short term long - purchased recently and is ramping the bottom off of it, hoping to top slice by selling most into the pre-results rises and locking profit away and then hoping then to buy on good news, if its good news. You will see nothing but ramping from these when they are holding and then nothing when they have sold.

Long term shorter viewpoint - purchased or topped up during the 40's and 50's pence levels and now selling to lock in profits, selling a few more as the price rises and will be holding a few come results - posting in a more conservative viewpoint, not wanting to deramp as they want it to rise to sell more, but also as it rises more they do not want it to rise too much and make any repurchase too high above the price they sold. Unable to be really negative as they intend to buy good news - so just conservative posts from them - until any good news comes.

No holding poster - they know its got massive potential but they also do not want the share price to rise as it means there initial purchase in price on any good news will be much higher - posting generally negative at the moment, trying to say only oil will be good, gas is bad (until they buy in that is), could be problems with the drill or rig etc.... raising Argie issues etc..

Bulletin board muppet / Short term trader looking to buy good news - no holding at the moment and deramping as much as they can, they do not want the price to rise as they might buy in on any good news and take quick percent rise before selling again far too early.

Short term swing trader - they try to buy lower and sell higher then buy again lower etc... they will be seen either posting positively after buying and then not posting at all after selling before returning to post positively after buying again OR not posting at all when they have no holding and then being negative when they have shorted and then being quiet again after closing their short and hoping the price rises again.


Thats pretty much what the boards will be from now on as they get more "excitable" and more people are interested in FOGL as Loligo drill progresses.

How long did it take you to dream up that rubbish?

As if any of it matters, but one thing is for sure, you'll keep posting the same stuff time and time again and from what I can see you're repeating this on more than just moneyam. So what category do you fall into? Blatant prefessional ramper by the looks of it.

chuckles, rampers never admit any downside, never admit any risk - they post pure nonsense saying its all a 100% sure thing and you are all going to be rich.

Not seen anyone post on Money Am like that - but seen lots in the categories I have also listed in the earlier post.

This is risky but I'm in because of a well funded company with big boys onboard and the upside could be staggering and the backup of a second spud !...

Put on a new disc someone. We've heard this one so so so many times.

This is risky but I'm in because of a well funded company with big boys onboard and the upside could be staggering and the backup of a second spud !...

....It's stuck....perhaps Amy Macdonald might be a better choice as she is just incredibly good !....

.

I saw someone post that Cynic has 'lost the plot'...

Think i am going that way too from the amount of reposts Proselenes has done.

If he does not fall under the 'ramper' category, he certainly falls under the 'spammer' category. Which is equally as annoying!

However i do enjoy his posts...the first time (not the 2nd/3rd/4th/5th).