I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Sorry if u hold EMG but I think its downgrade by multiple brokers meaning its fund managers are not up to scratch.

Not looking good, shorted it @275.2 (sb) target 250.0

Chris, your target reached 250p now, not a surprise 4 me.

I expect EMG to go down to 220-230p.

Thats brightened my day up.......not

Thanks hlyeo locked in profit by moving stop to 260, probably being greedy butyour prediction and latest broker TP from 320 to 300 convinces me to hang in for more :-)

Broker note from Oriel today:
"AHL reported overnight that its weekly NAV fell another 3.6% in a continuation of a bad run. The company have indicated that the problems of AHL in exploiting trends are most likely connected with quantitative easing which has been running over the last year during which AHL is down by 16%.
Their expectation for the future in part depends on whether the stimulus withdrawal
essentially by the Federal Reserve and Bank of England is synchronised or not. It would be worse if it were synchronised which looks quite possible. This is what happened in Q1 2009 and AHL has been suffering. If true this implies a further period of inadequate returns until QE is withdrawn.
That may well mean further downside in the shares though we continue to expect them to recover eventually. Current PT 300p."

Broker note (summary) from Credit Suisse:
"Dividend intact in near-term: Although Man has not given specific guidance we believe the company will hold the dividend flat at 44 cents in the y/e March 2010E given the cash generation of the business and the strong capital base.
Catalysts: Man will outline the next AUM update in late March.
Valuation: With the shares off 25% in the last 3 months it looks to us that the new numbers are fully reflected in the share price. It may however require a recovery on AHL/private client flows for the shares to start outperforming again.
We are reducing our target price to 3 (from 3.2) to reflect our EPS downgrades."

UK Chart of the Day: 28 January 2010

Chart of the day: A rebound in Man Group?

Price trends in stocks can last for some time. In the case of Man Group, the fund management group, the downtrend is now entering the tenth consecutive session (see right).

When prices are far above or below the 50-day moving average, mean reversionary forces will pull it back towards the line. It happened last October and again in November. Moreover, the trend is vastly oversold and at support

Therefore, we open a speculative buy to bet on reversion to the mean. Stop at 220p.

Brokers certainly in favour on the bullish side.....

Man Group PLC

SUMMARY CHARTS DIRECTOR DEALINGS FORECASTS WIRES
2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)
Oriel Securities [R]
27-01-10 HOLD 16.60 29.30 28.10 27.50
Evolution Securities Ltd
25-01-10 BUY 355.15 16.12 27.27 492.13 22.81 27.27
Keefe Bruyette & Woods Ltd [D]
25-01-10 OUTP 15.53 22.12
Charles Stanley
22-01-10 HOLD
Shore Capital
22-01-10 BUY 346.71 15.97 27.24 442.67 20.62 27.24
Singer Capital Markets Ltd
18-01-10 BUY 402.50 18.42 27.20 544.70 24.98 27.20
Numis Securities Ltd
18-01-10 ADD 338.89 15.33 26.98 428.11 19.62 26.98
Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
13-11-09 BUY 401.00 18.00 27.20 599.00 28.00 27.70

2010 2011
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 347.06 16.04 27.23 492.48 22.77 27.24
1 Month Change -19.19 -0.68 0.43 -49.48 -3.16 0.32
3 Month Change -50.15 -0.95 0.30 -27.20 -5.59 0.31


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)
Norm. EPS -19.70% -55.64% 41.96%
DPS 56.67% 11.42% 0.04%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)
EBITDA 910.11m 422.09m 571.46m
EBIT 801.06m m m
Dividend Yield 9.94% 11.07% 11.07%
Dividend Cover 1.48x 0.59x 0.84x
PER 6.80x 15.34x 10.80x
PEG -0.34f -0.28f 0.26f
Net Asset Value PS 124.54p p p

Hardly any reversion at all.

Moved my stop to target 250.0 if I get stopped out I aint complaining:o)

hope your right GF, might buy somemore to lower my ave.

Be patient, Balerboy.

Took profits @241.80 +33.4 more than happy with that:o)

heading for 220p

Certainly no hurry to buy EMG now.

Don't think we are thinking of buying.

I've stopped thinking altogether..... didn't see any of this coming, going to sit in a dark room with a crate of beer....

'M' and 'W' formations are generally reliable formations, gives a reasonable indication of what is coming next - can be a bit subjective of course as with all TA and especually hindsight!!