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Inmarsat's results and growth outlook today didn't go down too well, but are they bad enough to warrant trading at near November 2008 levels?

Please view chart in conjunction with this weeks

Insider Trading Newsletter

ISAT from the Fool today........

2. Inmarsat crashes to Earth
Today's other big faller, this time in the FTSE 100, is technology firm Inmarsat (LSE: ISAT). This company is a leading provider of global mobile satellite communications services, which is about as fashionable and modern a business as you will find.

Sadly, Inmarsat's interim results for the first half of 2010 shocked investors, who dumped its shares. As I write, its share price has dived almost a quarter (23%) to 378p, valuing the group at 1.8 billion. In mid-June 2010, Inmarsat shares peaked at 821p, more than triple its flotation price of 245p in June 2005. Thus, its shares have more than halved in 14 months.

What caused today's steep decline? At first glance, Inmarsat's results look very encouraging, as revenues rose 20% to $683 million and profit before tax rocketed 68% to $255 million. Also, the group hiked its interim dividend 10% to 15.4 US cents, plus the company today launched a $250 million share buyback. What's not to like?

The fly in the ointment appears to be Inmarsat Global MSS, where revenues in the second quarter were flat compared with the same quarter of 2010. Andrew Sukawaty, Inmarsat's Chairman and CEO, tried to calm investors' fears by explaining "While we believe that a return to more normalised revenue growth in our MSS business is only a matter of time, we expect near-term factors will constrain growth for longer than previously anticipated. As a result, we are revising our outlook for MSS revenue growth for 2011."

Thus, fearing that MSS -- which accounts for half of group revenues -- has gone ex-growth, investors sold down Inmarsat shares. You can understand their nervousness, as these shares were not cheap -- before today, at least.

After today's 23% fall, and based on 2010 earnings per share of 24p, Inmarsat shares trade on a price-earnings ratio of 16, which is forecast to fall to 7.7, based on EPS of 49p this year. The 2010 dividend was 22.4p, which is 5.9%, and is projected to rise to perhaps 6.5% in 2011.

For me, these are undemanding ratings, especially for a business in a high-tech field. Hence, if forced to choose between these two falling knives, I'd plump for Inmarsat over Misys, because Inmarsat's high dividend and low PER give it a clear edge in value terms.

More from Cliff D'Arcy:

Chaos. ........ is that spelt right?.....on second thoughts who gives a F in market like this.

yes it is gf :-)

Thanks for that Goldfinger. I didn't buy yesterday, but noticed the shares edging up on high volume towards the end of the day as ISAT bought a chunk as part of their buy back program. Still considering it though.

Interesting chart. Recovery?

1140 prints and completes the target set by the SP500 head and shoulders pattern.

The Traders Day Trading Forums

Tullow rebounding?.

Shite missed out on cape, never mind...

Broker recommendations since beginning of August make for good reading....

Centamin Egypt Ltd

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Evolution Securities Ltd
08-08-11 ADD 144.98 12.78 137.94 11.73
Westhouse Securities
04-08-11 BUY 11.60 13.80
Numis Securities Ltd
03-08-11 BUY 107.38 9.82 125.79 11.66
Broker Name Withheld 3
02-08-11 BUY 89.80 8.24 111.94 10.21


Hemscott Premium.

Fwiw.....I just posted a whole bunch of charts with the updated wave analysis ...too many to post here.

Kennys Elliott Waves Blog

Cheers kenny having a look. A lot look in here but dont post.

Brokers on side with TIG and is rather cheap given historical data....
P/E of just over 15 to 2012, too cheap imo.
Innovation Group (The) PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Singer Capital Markets Ltd
02-08-11 BUY 12.70 0.80 15.80 1.00
Panmure Gordon
02-08-11 BUY 14.60 1.16 16.20 1.28
Investec Securities
12-07-11 BUY 15.74 1.11 18.92 1.33
Edison Investment Research
11-07-11 None 15.16 0.95 17.76 1.14
Altium Securities
06-07-11 BUY 14.50 1.00 17.30 1.20

2011 2012
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 14.55 1.01 17.19 1.19
1 Month Change -0.08 -0.01 -0.07 -0.01
3 Month Change 0.29 0.04 0.07 0.02


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS 61.34% 134.87% 18.29%
DPS % % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA 15.90m 21.82m 24.36m
EBIT 6.75m 10.60m 12.90m
Dividend Yield % % %
Dividend Cover x x x
PER 43.78x 18.64x 15.76x
PEG 0.71f 0.14f 0.86f
Net Asset Value PS 0.58p 11.45p 12.45p


Hemscott Premium

Nows the time to get on board ABG as it falls back a little, wont last. Itl be well up by the days end. P/E of just over 10 to 2012, totaly barmy.

Full Broker backing....

African Barrick Gold PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

SG Securities
27-07-11 BUY 42.03 5.86 65.98 6.71
Westhouse Securities
27-07-11 ACCU 275.80 42.60 11.30 306.30 49.70 9.70
Broker Name Withheld 3
26-07-11 BUY 226.62 39.55 3.38 300.93 52.88 3.38
Numis Securities Ltd
26-07-11 BUY 241.36 39.92 4.30 289.87 49.13 5.53
Canaccord Genuity Ltd
25-07-11 BUY
Edison Investment Research
11-07-11 None 229.58 38.94 242.50 41.14
Charles Stanley
08-03-11 HOLD

2011 2012
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 244.07 40.68 6.22 287.04 52.20 6.33

1 Month Change 8.62 -2.04 3.00 23.01 3.70 2.60
3 Month Change 0.43 -3.06 2.62 14.16 2.40 2.31


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)
Norm. EPS 281.53% 15.97% 28.33%
DPS % 503.40% 1.92%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA 199.39m 314.39m 402.19m
EBIT 199.39m 239.45m 320.33m
Dividend Yield 0.19% 1.16% 1.18%
Dividend Cover 34.05x 6.54x 8.24x
PER 15.31x 13.20x 10.29x
PEG 0.05f 0.83f 0.36f
Net Asset Value PS 351.18p 411.90p 471.55p

Hemscott Premium

ARM Goldman: conviction buy, tp reiterated 800

Results thursday,

Avon Rubber focuses on three major businesses: it provides rubber products for defence companies, liners and tubing for dairies to milk the cows, and gas masks for the military and emergency services. The group announced yesterday it had landed a lucrative three-year contract with the US Department of Defense. The deal will see Avon provide filters for use with its M50 gas mask, with the maximum contract value at $38m, and an initial order value of $11m, which will be completed this year.

The analysts were happy with the news, with Edison saying it supports its positive view on Avon's business "in these uncertain times". Besides, investors should note that the stock trades on just 8.5 times estimated earnings for next year, according to Altium, offering ample scope for upside gains, the Independent says.

Big Broker backing for chime and on a very cheap P/E of just over 7 going forward.....

Chime Communications PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Peel Hunt
04-08-11 BUY 31.76 27.35 6.66 36.25 30.80 7.19
Investec Securities
12-07-11 BUY 31.91 27.17 6.35 35.33 28.91 6.67
Numis Securities Ltd
07-07-11 BUY 31.00 26.20 6.96 36.30 30.30 8.00
Canaccord Genuity Ltd
11-05-11 BUY 31.80 26.26 6.57 34.20 28.35 7.09
Charles Stanley Securities
23-03-11 BUY 29.80 27.40 6.33 34.60 31.98 7.06
Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
31-01-11 BUY

2011 2012
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 31.37 26.86 6.59 35.44 29.97 7.21
1 Month Change 0.12 -0.14 -0.00 -0.27 -0.38 -0.03
3 Month Change 0.48 -0.02 -0.00 0.27 -0.12 -0.03


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS 10.47% 12.32% 11.57%
DPS 11.72% 23.48% 9.39%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA 28.11m 34.51m 38.04m
EBIT 24.63m 31.98m 34.53m
Dividend Yield 2.54% 3.14% 3.44%
Dividend Cover 4.48x 4.07x 4.16x
PER 8.78x 7.82x 7.01x
PEG 0.84f 0.63f 0.61f
Net Asset Value PS -23.99p 199.46p 214.42p

Righ thinking of trialing new system well parts of it here. Free and will always be free. this time its automated, one of the best programmes in the busniess my mate Andy M has done this for me. (hundreds of hours put in)

We got 52 week lows daily and weekly,

52 week highs daily and weekly

And chart indicators up to the date.

If your interested please let me know.

The full kipper System 2 will be out later than thought due to shity markets. So trialling bits of it.

Goldfinger - can you put a chart in the header here please.

CLLN?, done Skinny.