http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

RF...you are without doubt the most clueless poster I have come across....RKH are rock 'n' roll:-)

I see the nutty brigade are back....groan.

"Oriel Securities analyst Richard Rose said he now values the Sea Lion prospect at 750-800 pence per share"

RF just ignore...don't let this thread deteriorate, lets stick to RKH and not a slanging match

This what I hate....is way over the top estimates...there are loads of oilies with crazy broker estimates...ok : this might be right ...but "might" is the word...

How do YOU estimate a value on an Oil company then?

Ernest to drill next for RKH, with a much higher COS than sealion.

Only 60 mmbbls at $50/bbl stand alone is commercial....Sealion discovery alone is much higher than 60 mmbb's.

The Oriel 750p to 800p refers to after flow testing at size of 240M barrels (just Sea Lion and just 240M barrels)

So when flow testing is done the SP will easily double. Patience everyone.

This also excludes all the other prospects RKH have, including lots of potential news ones based on the "new fairway".

Billions of barrels potential, hundreds of percent profit, just patience required. (and FFS do not set any stop losses at all to stop the shorters taking you out and getting their grubby hands on your shares)


Lots of new posters on ADFN all telling people to sell and take profits....... cause they are shorters who want you to sell to feed their shorts.....


Patience for the big rewards, lock the shares away, no stop losses set and be patient.

There are shorters ?.....nuts.....some profit taking perhaps, but shorts...mad...at this point...plenty of other stocks to short...

Lots of shorters likely now in, all who went short this morning, they will have to close by end of day as they will be scared of weekend press and lots of buying Monday morning.

Watch them scramble to close their shorts later in the day if not before.

marky - is not ernest now far lower risk - i.e. a better chance of success - now that sealion has been pretty much proved?

Ernest having had CSEM done Plus the Sealion big success, would have a pretty damm good COS now:-)

FT's (MarketsLive Blog) theory on yesterday's Flash Crash:
"there seems to be a theory that, while the stock went into LSE auction, trade continued on Plus,which is where a lot of the spread betting punters saw their positions liquidated when they couldn't make the margin calls.
Something like 4m Rockhopper shares traded through Plus that day many of which were at the session lows.
There's a theory that a couple of brokers were deliberately sticking the stock into LSE auction in order to buy the stock on Plus on the cheap.
However, this opens up a broader point about people exploiting the arbitrage opportunity between Aim and Plus, which is an interesting theme."

Thats an interesting theory but as this been the case in other shares in auction ?

I sold all my RKH @ 81 and so did TFC and like him bought back in when the facts of the drill results became more clear. So why have a go at R F for selling @91 ?

I was no where near selling any of my stock yesterday, why, was it because I did not believe the rumours the slightest bit. Was it because I am super clever and an ace investor.
NO, it was because I was out most of the day, so only sort of followed proceedings when they started to clear.
I have sympathy for those who sold, especially those who panicked (understandably) and sold near the bottom.
Would I have sold as the sp plummeted, on looking back the answer is 'no', but who knows what I would have done 'as it shot down'.
Ain't hindsight a wonderful thing.

Hi Cynic, this was quoted in interim report for RKH giving Ernest a 40% chance of success now that Sea Lion has commercial oil found I would of thought it gives it a even better chance of success of commercial oil been found in Ernest also what excites me about Ernest is the CSEM which Chav pointed out now the success rate once this has been done is very high and it might be worth a email to the company to find out the success rate of CSEM.

The information they have gathed on the geology side of things from samples taken from Sea Lion will help define there targets even more and give a greater chance of success and this information is also shared with Desire and will help them to tweak there geology model but the good thing is the basin is proven to hold commercial oil and its just a matter of sitting back and let the OG find more oil which it wil.

Both Sea Lion and Ernest have direct
hydrocarbon indications; Sea Lion in the form
of an Amplitude Versus Offset anomaly and
Ernest in the form of a positive Controlled
Source Electromagnetic response, a fact that
was ignored in the expert assessment of risk.
Your Board, aware of the value of this technology,
assigns a chance of success to Ernest of 40% .

The Oriel analyst is valuing Sea Lion at around 750p to 800p a share following a flow test if the size if the P50 of 240M barrels (as is, no farm down or dilution).

So when a flow test is done the SP should double and maybe more from here.

But, this is just Sea Lion. The news today from Rockhopper is that the data suggests this is a "new fairway" in the area, meaning that known prospects within it are much derisked (and look at the PDF below at the sizes)

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk/pdf/ProspectInventory2.pdf

But not only are those prospects derisked, now you have the potential for many more new prospects as they load and work the data. This means even more potential to add to that.

Notice the comment that the Sea Lion fan has "thicker" reservoir in other areas. The upside on Sea Lion alone is now 669M barrels recoverable. Thats a mind blowing figure for a little oiler.

So with the known prospects derisked and the potential for more to be added to it there literally is the potential for billions of barrels recoverable for RKH.

They now have proven oil bearing areas/licenses. Proven management in their ability to do the job they are in there to do. At this juncture RKH surely is the lowest risk Falklands oiler, with potentially now more upside than DES.

If you want something lower risk with big potential, RKH has to be it.

"Regional Seal" and "New Fairway" are the kind of words you want to hear... :)

Roll on flow testing and roll on Ernest drilling. I shall be holding on to all my shares, fully paid for, no stop losses, for many years to come I think as this story is only just beginning and has so far to go.

Sell for jam today, or keep for caviar tomorrow..... I think I will be holding on for some time to come :)

Good write up on Motley Fool.

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/company-comment/2010/06/04/double-oil-strike-send-shares-soaring.aspx

For those interested here is the new report (link to PDF file) on Sea Lion.

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk/pdf/Volumetric_Assessment_of_Sea_Lion_2010.pdf


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