http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

A post from oil Brat from iii...

Posted on DES put equally applies here.

Well that was a roller coaster of a week

To answer the specific question do I still rate DES the answer is a resounding yes.

The there is no easy way to do the detailed technical easily but Ill try my best. The geology in the basin is complex to say the least. There are multiple source rocks and Ill wager multiple seals in one large package.

Take a very large swimming pool, empty. The floor of the pool has thousands of little holes. Over a year poor in sand at five points around the pool (the paleo rivers that fed the basin). Over that year the sand will roughly form mounds from the side of the pool towards the middle of the pool. In the mean time the wind will mess it up, as will the rain, dead leaves, dirty etc etc. When you have poured a lot of sand in stop and pour in thick gloopy mud into the pool until its full, (regional seal). Now inject oil into the bottom of the pool through the little holes (source rock). The oil rises to the surface but is trapped by the sticky mud. If you wanted to get the oil out you dig into one of the bits of sand. Thats your NFB.

Sea lion is one offshoot of one of the five sand sources. There will be hundreds of them, some significant number filled with oil. If you read the latest RKH report figure 9 gives a good stylized diagram, its much much more complicated that that.

That regional seal is thick and fairly massive. It seals the whole basin, and it covers Dess and Rkhs acreage. This is a major result. Basically the wells in 98 tested above the seal as their primary. The oil on the top of the pool, above the seal is thin and gets washed away. Every well that has gone beneath the seal has found hydrocarbons and there are three discoveries!!! Quiet possibly six (two more in Liz and one more in Sealion).

In RKHs report they say they are re-evaluating based on the fairway. Basically some one just handed them the instructions for the basin and they are now looking and re-evaluating all the, lets call them sub prospects. Desire will be doing the same. Any structure under that seal that has permeable sand has a high probability of being oil saturated.

Underneath all of that there is clearly a major gas system. This gives two advantages, there would be gas available for lift in the future and it may also supply gas drive to aid the movement of oil out of the reservoir (pressure). And not a hint of water seen This is a serious discovery in a serious basin.

RPSs interpretation is rightly conservative in the extreme. However I dont need to be and thats how to many money out of this. Their recovery factor is low. My risked estimate would be to use their medium probable in place and a recovery of 35% not 30% this gives you 282m recoverable. Thats 864p a share using $8 in ground value. (the majors are pumping vast monies into Iraq for a much worse return than that with horrendous political risk). Now if you jiggle the maths for a realistic recoverable on realistic size (its far bigger than the P50 number, look at the bottom of Figure 13 emm whats that?) then Id say thats a billion barrel plus find with 400m recoverable, thats 1200p a share. This is all based on a single strike. It is not possible to have a single strike, all the pieces are there for a basin wide (Des and RKH) oil province. Remember all that cobblers about no big fields possible? Rubbish, and now published evidence that this is rubbish. Ill make a bet with anyone that cares to take it, there will be 5 billion HC equivalent recoverable in RKHs acreage and 8 billion in Desires. (This includes condensate and dry gas). Depending how you do the maths thats 150 to 200 pounds sterling a share. (at $8 in ground not produced value)

The final piece is the flow test. The well was logged with magnetic resonance, basically an MRI, like in hospitals. The physics is fairly horrific but it can very precisely determine rock from oil, and it does so by exciting the oil at an atomic level. It is highly likely that this oil will move. Its on the lighter side of the range expected it should flow fairly well. Bring in a well test with more that 2,000 bbls / day and RKH and DES both become take over targets. 6 quid for RKH on 100 pound plus value (500+ pound a share produced value), its a no brainer as they say. Based on that maths its only slight risk at 20 quid Bring in a couple more finds and 20 quid is your starting point

Basically theres an open day at Fort Knox at these prices, anyone who is still negative is in the main vault wanting to do a risk assessment as to how many gold bars would exceed the European manual handling limit when everyone else is filling their boots and every other available receptacle.

Regards
OB

another over optimistic ramper..

You're on form this w/e Bb!!! Bad result on the Derby or bad weather in the southwest??? ;o)

lol.. can't decide which way this one will go, just my view..

at the moment the only way is up, with more drilling results to come. Another successful result from FOGL, DES and/or RKH and the Falklands will become like the Klondike gold rush!

I have now added Balerboy to my "Squelch" list.

Total and utter idiot, said to everyone to sell this at 90p as it was too high and has been talking total nonsense since.

Not many get on my squelch list, but you join the very few who are now, so I no longer have to endure seeing any of your ridiculous posts.

Bye bye Balerboy :) ! You take number 3 spot on my "squelched" poster list.

Users you currently have squelched

zscrooge
ravey davy gravy
Balerboy

I read a book on the Klondike gold rush and not many people made it back rich, many of them lost their money in the whore houses and the gambling dens ,because there was not much else to do. But there were tales of men arriving back from the Klondike with suit cases full of gold dust.

the ones who made money were the sellers of tents and picks and shovels ..... i'm afraid they're not much use in the south atlantic

don't be so rotten to my friend emu - aka balerboy - he's just a poor west country boy who rakes for the moon

cynic that's folklore you forgot the bar keeps and hookers amongst others!

Balerboy,

I presume you are referring to the post of 'Proselenes' when you say "complete and utter bo**ocks.".

Perhaps if you explained WHY people might take more notice.
What is bo**ocks about it.

I will await your reply, as I consider adding you to my Squelch list.

lol...what do i know.....still think talk of billions of barrels is rubbish, would have been out of the ground years ago. quite happy to be squished. but i do think pro whats his name, goes on a bit with hypothetical claims of what might be...just like SEO days and look where we are now.

Balerboy just spend a hour and just have a read on what the BGS say about the NFB and then you will see that this is twice as big as the North Sea is and its in infant stage.

http://www.bgs.ac.uk/falklands-oil/prospects/prospect_intro.htm

These are the people who know what they are talking about and have spent 20 years plus crunching data and independent studies.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/2009/12/03/swansea-raised-oil-man-colin-phipps-predicted-falklands-bonanza-91466-25310294/

The largest North Sea oilfield, the Forties, contained five billion barrels. But the British Geological Survey has pointed to the highly oil-prone nature of the Falklands source rock, estimating the north area of the islands alone contains some 60 billion barrels of oil.

I don't know about anyone else but I expected a nice rise this morning on the back of all the press over the weekend. Are investors nervous given Gulf disaster and Obama tryinh increases liability for oil companies? Are investors suspicous that the Ernest will be drilled before doing flow test on Sea Lion? Or is everyone hungover from yesterday and still in bed?......

No problem if they drill Ernest before the flow test with it's enhanced COS over Sealion....would prefer the flow test on Sealion first though, should Sam Moody consult me!

2 months to wait by the time Fogl have finished drilling Toroa...perhaps a little less 7 weeks...minimum...

Not correct rf:
"FOGL is pleased to announce that the Toroa F61/5-1 exploration well spudded on Monday 31st May 2010.......... Drilling operations are expected to take approximately 35 days"
Like RKH, they will know pretty much immediately if they have hit oil, but lab tests will take longer.

Plus the time it takes to tow the rig back to Ernest or Sealion....probably Ernest......another 10 days in fine weather.......reckon 7 weeks to cover it all...

You said 'finished drilling' not packed up & moved off site.

Yes, sorry Harrycat, should have made myself clearer....back to the other sites...I reckon 7 weeks will cover it all...

Looks like an sp pullback coming, crude also down......it has done incredibly well over the last 2 months....