http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

I thought the fishing season only opened 9 days ago avsec???? ;o)

Support at 280p then Bb?

http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/display_news/article/rockhopper-exploration-raises-48-million-and-mulls-move-to-main-market-on-the-back-of-falklands-suc/771.html

June 09, 2010

Rockhopper Exploration Raises 48 Million And Mulls Move To Main Market On The Back Of Falklands Success





Its amazing what one good well in an industry hotspot can do for a company. Rockhopper Exploration was once ranked among AIMs many exploration hopefuls (and not so hopefuls), holding rights to some ex-Shell acreage in the unproven and remote waters to the north of the Falkland Islands but without the cash or rig access to drill its portfolio. That began to change late last year when it joined forces with fellow AIM group Desire Petroleum to mobilise a rig to the North Falkland Basin, and the transformation began to gather pace this year with the successful drilling of Rockhoppers first well, Sea Lion 14/10-2.
The Sea Lion well, which now carries a best estimate resource tally of 242 million barrels recoverable according to independent engineers RPS Energy, put a rocket under the Rockhopper share price, which has increased by a whopping 500 per cent since the April spud date. Company chairman Pierre Jungels, commenting after this weeks successful fundraising, said the company was now mulling a move to the Main Market.

That fundraising saw Rockhopper raise 48.5 million pounds on Tuesday through the placing of 17,320,000 new ordinary shares at a price of 280 pence per placing share, a move which gives it the financial muscle to complete its current drilling programme in the North Falkland Basin. The placing nudged the shares higher, to close at 296 pence on Tuesday, giving the AIM company a market cap of 502 million.

Jungels said the enthusiastic and swift response to the placing was a significant vote of confidence from investors in our work on the drilling campaign to date and in our plans for the rest of this year.

Those plans include flow testing the Sea Lion exploration well, which will cost 21 million, and the drilling of an exploration well on the Ernest prospect. The monies will also help demonstrate the companys financial robustness to the Falkland Island authorities, an issue much on everyones mind given BPs traumas in the US.

Investor attention will now turn to the flow testing of the discovery well, which will provide the real proof of the pudding. So far the company, which holds 100 per cent of the discovery, has been very forthcoming with technical data from this highly anticipated well (all wells in the Falklands attract a following, not least because of the geo-political concerns with Argentina). The well was drilled to a depth of 2,744 metres and penetrated a regional seal between 2,250 metres and 2,374 metres. Based on log analysis, coring and wireline formation testing, it appears that all sands encountered beneath this regional seal are charged with oil. No oil-water contacts were encountered.

The total vertical oil column is 217 metres, with total net pay of 53 metres in seven identified pay zones, the thickest of which is approximately 30 metres gross. The entire Sea Lion fan has an aerial extent of over 45 sq km and there are strong seismic indications of thicker reservoir packages elsewhere in the fan. Logging data suggests good quality reservoir, with average porosity of 19 per cent and good permeability, with the crude samples recovered showing oil of 26.4 API and 29.2 API.

The flow test will be critical, however, as MD Sam Moody acknowledged earlier this month. The test of Sea Lion will be a key step on the road to proving commerciality, said Moody. We believe that, with modern horizontal completions and water injection in sands of the quality encountered, recovery factors significantly above the 15 per cent assumed in the P90 case could be achieved. Furthermore, our recently updated economic model indicates that a stand alone field of 60 million barrels recoverable could be commercial at oil prices down to US$50 per barrel."

a difficult call at the moment ..... sp hovering close to the placing price, but markets intrinsically unstable to weak, and many unknowns to RKH itself

Its been easy for me since 38p.

Buy, hold, buy more, hold, buy even more, hold, buy even more again....keep holding.

Simple. No stress, massive profits.

only a profit when you bank, so don't forget it!
i've done very nicely so far, but was too greedy to cash in any near the top.
have actually just bought a few back as there may be some bear closing getting under way as bid book is now slightly longer than offer

cynic, no plans to sell.

Discovery add 40% to 50% in the ground value, flow test done add 90% to 100%.


Therefore Sea Lion is worth around 720p a share after flow test, so now 300p to 360p is ok for target values.

Ernest would be worth around 200p on the share price for discovery, and then another 200p (totaling total 400p) after flow test, based on the P50 150M barrels of oil.

720p + 400p means an easy target, fingers crossed and all going well, for year end is 900p IMO !

And that excludes all other prospects and potential that RKH have......

bla bla bla.....

never realised emus made that sort of mating call

it must work..........bought you out of the bushes....

it must work..........bought you out of the bushes....

i don't charge (money)

more likely to see 270 than 720 today....

Edison Update Note Out. I have put it up on Media Fire.

http://www.mediafire.com/?mzr3tkgggz1


Key items :

Confirmation placing was heavily oversubscribed.

Notes that the flow test might reveal considerable upside to present size estimates, and of course, after a flow test the valuation goes up of what you have......

Notes the present price only values in 81M barrels, nowhere near the P50 of 242M barrels.....

I will keep on buying the dips, holding fully paid for shares for the long term with no stop losses or anything like that.

:)

1549 GMT [Dow Jones] Westhouse Securities increases target prices for Falkland Islands oil explorers Rockhopper Exploration
(RKH.LN) and Desire Petroleum (DES.LN) to 663p and 139p, respectively, from previous targets of 404p and 101p. Says the upgrades

follow an upward revision of its estimates for the value of oil per barrel at the companies' prospects, sterling's decline against

the dollar and Rockhopper's Sea Lion discovery. Rates both companies buy, with a preference for Rockhopper.
Notes contingent
resources at Sea Lion account for roughly 70% of its Rockhopper target price. Rockhopper shares -2.3% at 279.5p. Desire shares -3.4%
at 86p. (jason.douglas@dowjones.com)

just as well i topped up at 280p then..

with luck we may even see some positive action here tomorrow then, which would be very cheery news ..... and if there are any bears about, they may end up running for cover a bit sharpish - all wishful thinking

Hi Cynic,
You have an email from me regarding trades in PAce share on 7th May from 8:00 to 8:16.
Would you please respond asap.
AH

8$ to 8.5$ used by many for this area due to good fiscal terms (royalties/tax) along with it being in British territorial waters.


Sea Lion P50 = 242M barrels @ 8.5US$ a barrel = 720p a share OIG after flow test.

Ernest P50 = 150M barrels @ 8.5US$ a barrel = 400p a share OIG after flow test.


Post discovery - pre flow test - 50% for Sea Lion is fine = so 360p.

Post flow test 720p a share - being conservative allocate 650p.


Ernest post any discovery P50 size - pre flow test allocate 200p

Ernest post any flow test - allocate 325p



Target 900p by year end - any issues with it ?

Target milestone events add the figures above - any issues ?


Discuss - discuss. Do not compare with Siberia, or Crapistan, or African banana republic jungle.

He's off again !! who is he trying to convince.....himself??

markymar, the Westhouse target is above my present one.

1549 GMT [Dow Jones] Westhouse Securities increases target prices for Falkland Islands oil explorers Rockhopper Exploration (RKH.LN) and Desire Petroleum (DES.LN) to 663p and 139p, respectively, from previous targets of 404p and 101p. Says the upgrades follow an upward revision of its estimates for the value of oil per barrel at the companies' prospects, sterling's decline against the dollar and Rockhopper's Sea Lion discovery. Rates both companies buy, with a preference for Rockhopper. Notes contingent resources at Sea Lion account for roughly 70% of its Rockhopper target price. Rockhopper shares -2.3% at 279.5p. Desire shares -3.4% at 86p. (jason.douglas@dowjones.com)

------------------------

That is ahead of my targets. I allocate 720p for a P50 find of 242M barrels after flow test at Sea Lion, with 50% now and 50% after flow test.

I also allocate 400p for a P50 find at Ernest of 150M barrels, 50% on discovery and 50% after flow test.

Therefore my present target is 360p.
Ernest discovery it would rise to 560p or stay at 360p with no Ernest discovery
Ernest flow test it would rise to 760p or stay at 360p with no Ernest discovery.
Sea Lion flow test would rise to 1120p or rise to 720p with no Ernest discovery.

Mine ignores cash and all other prospect and leads that RKH have, which is the best way for now IMO.