rayrac dead right in your opinion, which makes it even harder to decide when to buy.

I like this price, but I would like it cheaper, seems HNR does whatever HDR does the night before in Oz.

Tiof 5 is due, you are right, followed by no news while production swings into gear at Chinguetti.

There is loads in the price and perhaps I am being too picky.

The dips are a bit disconcerting though.

I see other PSC memebers are doing the same.

Taken from TMF - Killik & Co.

HARDMAN RESOURCES Share fall


The share price of Hardman Resources, a major partner in the Mauritanian discovery has seen a sharp share price fall in recent trading sessions from 90p to around 68p. Trying to judge the bottom of the price fall is a difficult business but a bounce back looks more than a fair chance from these levels.


Hardmans primary asset is the 19% stake in Chinguetti and 21.6% of the other exploration areas in Mauritania known as PSC B. Readers will recall that these stakes came after a place down of its share to BG Group earlier in the year.


The share price fall follows three separate pieces of poor news which has impacted sentiment. Given that the price has traded at a premium to estimated net asset value, bad news creates opportunities for the premium to reduce. We think the stock is now trading at a discount to core value.


Having spoken to the participants in the project, we understand the news earlier in the week that the Merou well had delivered sub commercial quantities of hydrocarbons really defines the boundary of the massive Tiof field (i.e. it does not extend as far to the west). Further drilling will now take place to the East.


The mechanical issues at Tiof which resulted in the suspension of drilling of the third appraisal well have been played down as insignificant although clearly this may have some impact of the cost program.


It is clear the partners need some good news but we have felt that some of these early targets are by their very nature are high risk and help to define the structures. As a result, the sentiment has moved too negative on the project. Indeed, we suspect that the next results we will hear from the partners will be more about development of existing projects which should be safer hunting ground (cash flow rather than exploration).



The stock price at 66p is below the perceived 73p core as estimated by Citigroup Smith Barney. Upside potential therefore exists. The added attraction of bid speculation at the lead operator Woodside Petroleum in recent sessions and thoughts that Hardman will probably be bought in 2005 suggest recent weakness represents a buying opportunity.

I'm back in.

The stock is as Killik says at a discount, and it's a good one, so that is all there is too it!

Anyone here interested in cows?

Moo!

MS

This is the full text from IC where it has HNR as one of its ten Aim super stocks:

Hardman resources

As long as the dollar remains weak and George Bush wants to make war rather than peace, the oil price is likely to remain high - and oil companies will benefit.

Hardman isn't the biggest oil & gas company on Aim, but it's close - and it's likely to outlast most of the others. That's because it has a strong shareholder base and because its assets are diverse. The company's primary focus is on the new oil and gas province opening up off the coast of Mauretania, where it has had several spectacular discoveries.

The first one, the Chinguetti field, was declared economically viable earlier this year, and is due to come on stream early in 2006. That's not long to wait for substantial cash flow. Meanwhile, Hardman continues to develop its other Mauretanian prospects - the most promising at the moment being the huge Tiof gasfield. There are others, and the company has the cash to go after them.

It also has assets elsewhere: there's exploration in New Zealand, off the coast of South America, off the Falklands, in central sub-Saharan Africa, and in the Timor Sea. And Hardman has shown itself adept at deal-making: it made a profit of more than $100m in a matter of days when it took up an option on an asset and then sold it on to BG.

Chief Ted Ellyard has had to step down for health reasons, and the market has reacted badly to a recent dry well. But that just creates a buying opportunity - Hardman is in it for the long haul.

Where is it going? Sub 60p and I'm in

MS

Didn't know you were out!

Who knows ms?

The price is great, but where is the low and rebound?

I have no idea, I thought it was there yesterday.

MS - what I have noticed with HNR is that volumes in the UK are not high, no mass buys or sells, and lately the buys outstrip the sells by a few hundred thousand.

I interpret that as holders are holding on to the share overall.

I'll make no recommendation as this one is influenced by what happens in Oz overnight.

There it has been steady fall every day for a while now.

I think it is cheap with quite a discount on the price.

I have been known to be wrong!

The last Tiof well that was planned is Tiof 5, which is being drilled east of Tiof 1.

Tiof 2-4 are to the west I believe.

Tiof 4 put a boundry on the Tiof Discovery to the west as I understand it. Tiof 5, and an unplanned Tiof 6 are to determine the boundry to the east.

Tiof is due to produce oil 18 months after Chinguetti. (2007).

Expect Tiof 5 or 6 to be dry or not commercial, this may again affect the price, even though it makes good sense to be sure of what the PSC partners have at Tiof.

Tiof is already many times larger than Chinguetti. I take that from HNR AGM document.

prop said the price of SEY would flucuate during drilling and it certainly has, as has HNR.

I ask, can we take a chance on Tiof 5 and possibly 6 being dry or not commercial?

If they do find enough of what they are looking for, this week or next at Tiof 5, then this will shoot up imo.

There is no way to predict wether that is going to happen, it may be better to buy on upward momentum, then again anyone wanting to buy may miss the boat.

I have bought a few more today, back up to my previous levels and at a fantastic dicount comapred to my last lot.

I do not see me losing my deposit in the long term what ever happens in the immediate future.

Whatever you do, you decide.

Good luck chap!

As I wrote the above the spread is now 2p wide 59 to 61p.

Seems that may be support!

Maybe not!

On the other hand I may be right, the MM are dropping the bid but leaving the ask.

That looks like support to me.

I will have a look and see later, say next year to see if I was right!

I'm hanging on but so tempted to top up. I just can't make up my mind. Did top up with SEY today, only a small amount though.

MS

Unlikely even really good news will take up the slack in the discount.

You can afford to wait imho.

Talking of slack, how's the Mother in Law?

Moo!

MS

This has fallen again today. Is it time to top up or is 50p looming. Any ideas?

MS

Takes awhile to load with broadband.

I would not recommend dial up modems unless you have nothing better to do.

Its a Woodside PDF more up to date than many seen before.

http://www.newsite.woodside.com.au/NR/rdonlyres/em2x256d2zpduga4oarmn7zz2d32ktkbwps3jt2bmkxxbwt3vlqmeiqncynyj6csv35xrxf5dpacx2apjmbqqwp3edb/IR+-+Nov+04+-+Investor+Briefing+Day+Clegg+%28Africa+Business

December 15 2004

Australasian Investment Review - (AIR)

Macquarie has taken advantage of recent weakness in the Hardman (HDR) share price by upgrading its short-term recommendation on the stock to Outperform from Neutral, while retaining its long-term Neutral rating.
While noting the company will not commence production until early in 2006, the broker suggests there remains significant potential from the ongoing exploration program. The analyst notes the company is currently in discussions for the timetable for 2005's exploration program in Mauritania, the announcement of which should give the stock a boost.
In addition, approval for the development of the Tiof and Tevet fields should also provide a catalyst, especially as the broker values the impact of Tevet at 19c.
Earnings have been adjusted slightly, with FYO5 down 4% to $0.3m, FYO6 to $2.8m and FYO7 up 5% to $4.7m to account for revised exploration commitments.
The broker's valuation on HDR is $1.53, while its share price target is $2.10.

Any idea what that broker's valuation equates to in sterling?

83 pence sandrew.

Nice as we bought around 60p ish.

The price is rsing inbits today which is not normal, its normally lumps up or down of 3 to 4 pence, so this was obviously released o=vernight and digested as people have got to it.

As you can see Tevet is seen as a bonus to that price.

I had an email advertising the fleet street letter the other day insisting now was the time to get into oils especially smaller companies( don't know which exactly as I don't subscribe), but they also were predicting $80 per barrel next summer. Don't know what they are like on predictions but thought it interesting nonetheless.
Shouldn't think the sp will take too long to gain back to previous levels as no real justification for price dropping as it has, just a bit of bad news at the same time as the general oil price drop. IMHO anyway.