http://www.growthcompany.co.uk/recommendations/457881/ht-high-growth-highly-defensive.thtml
H&T: high growth, highly defensive - BUY
Companies: HAT
05/08/2008
While retailers cave in under the pressure of the consumer downturn, one corner of the high street retains its hustle and bustle.
Traditionally recognised by the sign of three golden balls, pawnbrokers offer small loans secured generally against high-value items such as gold or diamond jewellery, making their margin by charging high rates of interest and auctioning or selling on the jewellery if loans default.
But John Nichols, chief executive of expansive pawnbroker H&T, bats away the suggestion that this fragmented industry will benefit from the recession as bunkum. He says that stories of people queuing up outside pawnbrokers is not the usual case were just becoming more visible as more branches appear on more high streets.
But it is hard to see how the recent tightening up of lending conditions from banks and building societies will not positively affect the industry. Indeed, recent data from MoneyExpert.com revealed that lenders have turned down around 1.38 million loan applications in the past six months alone.
The defensive qualities of the pawnbroking sector and the expansion strategy being pursued by H&T should interest investors irrespective of the wider economic cycle. Over the past decade, H&T established for more than a century and its younger, though larger, rival Albermarle & Bond, have pursued rapid roll-out strategies, with both more than doubling in size to around 100 branches apiece.
H&T had 89 branches at the end of last year, has added six so far this year and, says Nichols, will have 100 by Christmas. This expansion reflects a mixture of both organic openings and acquisitions in what remains a highly fragmented industry, with the UK market containing about 1,000 stores. Nichols explains that since brand new branches generally take a couple of years to reach stable profitability, we need to make earnings-accretive acquisitions in order to balance out the new stores we open.
Once up and running, pawnbrokers enjoy a very loyal customer base, typically consisting of people without bank accounts and few alternative means of raising short-term funds. Some 87 per cent of H&Ts sales arise from pawnbroking, of which a fifth comes from the associated jewellery retail business, with the remainder consisting of pay-day advances, cheque cashing and quick loans.
Innovation plays its part too, even in this most mature of businesses, as for the past two years H&T customers have been able to receive their loans either in cash or via a pre-paid debit card, allowing them to make purchases online.
Annual numbers for 2007 were excellent, with profit before tax and exceptionals rising by 53 per cent to 7.2 million. Despite spending 3.6 million on acquisitions, H&T was still able to return 3.4p per share to investors in dividends, having generated 6.3 million in cash during the year. In addition, the pledge book (the sum of all collateral taken against loans) posted double-digit growth to 27.9 million and is claimed to be the largest in the industry.
Strong growth has continued in 2008, with Nichols confirming in May that the core business had continued to trade in line with expectations. Furthermore, the prolonged strength of gold has led to higher revenue from gold scrap contributing to higher profits than previously anticipated.
On the strength of the update, independent broker Numis upgraded its full-year profit forecast from 8.4 million to 9 million and earnings from 17.4p to 18.7p.
Based on those estimates, shares in H&T trade on a prospective multiple of just 10.2 times, a discount to quoted peer Albemarle & Bond. That suggests that H&T, which joined AIM 11 years after its rival, is being unfairly overlooked by the market. Defensive and expansive, the shares are a long-term buy.