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When somebody who has already made one considerable fortune in the oil industry tells me about the biggest thing I have ever seen I sit up and take notice.
Alan Burns is a 68 year-old Aussie with a phenomenal track record. Back in 1987 he founded an oil company called Hardman Resources. Two decades later, in 2006, he banked a fortune when he sold it to Tullow Oil for 650m. But like most successful businessmen a life of leisure did not appeal. He still had the itch for business and an eye for the main chance.
Today he is the man behind BPC (ticker: BPC). This oil exploration company has identified 22 prospects in a place that you probably associate with lazy beach holidays. And according to respected independent oil industry experts, any one of these prospects could hold five hundred million barrels of oil. Multiply 22 by 500m and you have 11bn barrels of oil a huge amount of black gold.
To put it into perspective, Gulf Keystones find in Kurdistan is estimated at 1.5-3bn barrels. And BPs latest find in the Gulf of Mexico, which could possibly contain over 3bn barrels, is described as a giant. Anything over 1bn barrels is seriously big, but that is not the whole story. If youre looking to make money from oil exploration, there are other important things that you must know. Its not just the quality of the oil thats important. There are FIVE more criteria you need to look for: The depth of the oil below the surface The nature of the rock structure that contains the oil The rate at which the oil will flow out of the ground How close the oil source is to the proposed end users or consumers The attitude of the government that has granted the initial exploration licence
When you take the above criteria into account, BPC becomes even more interesting... Why these islands tick the right boxes BPC has secured exploration licences in the off-shore waters of the Bahamas. This location ticks all the right boxes for me. Lets go through them: Government attitude: First of all, we should not have to worry about the attitude of the government. The Bahamas has had uninterrupted parliamentary democracy for 275 years, and its own government since 1973 when it was granted independence from the United Kingdom. It is a member of the Commonwealth, has a Governor General who represents the British monarch, and has a judicial system based on English common law.
Proximity to the consumer: It lies close to the southeast of the United States, not only bringing it under the influence of the USA but, of course, also providing a ready market for any oil or gas that it might be able to produce.
Geology: The Bahamas lie between Florida and Cuba, both of which are producers of oil and gas, and to the east of the very productive Gulf of Mexico. Four of BPCs five licence areas lie parallel to and north of Cuba, with the other to the north west close to Florida. Cuba was formed several million years ago when the Caribbean tectonic plate moved northwards and squashed up against the North American plate. A part of it, todays Cuba, rose above sea while several folds of rock formed below sea level. These structures are often found to contain oil, as is evident in Iran and Iraq. So the geology is good.
Oil depth: the deeper the water the tougher and more expensive is the challenge of retrieving it, but water depths in BPCs five existing licence areas are in the range of 5m-535m. This makes it a relatively simple drilling proposition, and rigs could easily be transferred the short distance from the Gulf of Mexico. Given this highly favourable background, the biggest question in my mind is why the region has never been explored before? Why have the big US oil companies in particular, gone off looking for oil in distant and hostile environments when this comparatively straightforward prospect is right under their noses?
Let me solve this riddle for you... I have to admit that this is a bit of a puzzle, but sometimes big business simply does not act in a way that logic might dictate. In fact, there has been sporadic activity in the region. In 1947 there were eight active licencees, including Gulf, Standard Oil, BP, Superior Oil and Shell. Exploration in those days consisted mainly of gravity and magnetics, with only limited seismic. There was some limited drilling at the time, followed by another bout of activity in the 1980s but again without success. However, this does not mean that Bahamian waters do not contain oil. The big oil companies drew in their horns during the period of low oil prices in the 1990s. But today the higher oil price has altered the economics of exploration. Furthermore, improved techniques, especially seismic, have increased the likelihood of identifying oil-bearing strata.
There is one other reason why other companies may have been deterred from the Bahamas. The Bahamian government seems to have kept no records of oil prospecting activities. It had no energy department or data library. Hardmans team spent two years tracking down the paper-work, finding some in a warehouse in North Wales and more from a storage facility in New Orleans that had been ravaged by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. More than 30 consultants and BPC employees have now analyzed and interpreted thousands of pages of historical geological and geophysical documents, seismic and well log file data, and original well bore rock samples.
Some of this historical data set was scanned, digitized and converted into a modern data set that could be analyzed by todays computer software. More than 25 new geological and geophysical studies have been completed and according to Fox-Davies Capital the acquisition of such information today would cost $200m-$500m.
However, this is not quite the full story. In May BPC announced that it was to apply for five further licence areas in conjunction with the Norwegian giant StatoilHydro. These are close to a licence area held by StatoilHydro in Cuban waters. There the water depth is no more than 10 metres. These licences should be granted before the end of this year, by which time I also expect BPC to have announced a joint venture partner for its existing licences. But I dont want you to wait until after the action has started.
I believe that NOW is the time for you to take your stake in this remarkable company for the reasons listed below.
RHPS Verdict: News of a joint venture partner for BPCs first five licence areas should trigger interest in the shares and draw attention to the massive potential of the region. BPC is aiming to start drilling in 2012, which is some way off. But with about 100 new offshore oil rigs coming into the market in the near future, swelling the existing total by some 25%, Alan Burns believes that rig rates are set to fall. This could accelerate the exploration timetable. In any event it is better to be in too early rather than too late, and I want to have a share in this story as it unfolds over the coming months. In a research note a year ago broker Fox-Davies Capital said that a single commercial discovery (out of 22 leads) could yield an unrisked valuation of $1bn, which compares to todays stock market value of BPC of just 32m. That indicates the huge potential here, so with an intermediate 12 month target price of 15p. BUY