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Green Van Man, - make the Grade? (OCDO)     

hangon - 26 Jul 2010 16:09

Oh deary, this delivery service was spun out of Waitrose, DYOR and is now spewing out lots of green messages all over, for those shoppers that want home-delivery. Yet, oddly it seems in London next year Waitrose will launch its own delivery -( seems a bit "stupid" - eh?)
Meanwhile, the sp starts at 1.60 and slips a tad ( yet to make a Profit, but it's closer than those Dot-Com lunatic days..)....about 1.64 close today......yet, their Customers were offered a bung of shares at the Float-price....eh? (Well, it helps it get-away, I suppose.).

Chairman Michael Grade is said to be "very happy" with the discounted Float, but he gets shares to the value of a something-Bonus. However, some commentaters suggest he's not the right man for this business (or a.....).

Ocado - Grief, it's an Ugly name. They were so close to Car-Go, or Green-Del (er, perhaps?). It was also associated with John Lewis Group, but DYOR.

The BAD News is that today an RNS shows the level of Director support (did he "miss out" - or did his Broker missunderstand the word Goodbye...?
Director buys 3k's worth.....Ouch. That must upset anyone like me that thinks any Dir purchase of 50k+ is Goood. . . . . and anything under 10k is really Baaad.


Good Luck, this is an established business...


EDIT -(22Oct10)- 147p
EDIT (29Nov2017)- sp 362p= up 17% - maybe expecting a bid/contract

cynic - 05 Jan 2011 11:54 - 2 of 52

i think this is horribly overpriced, as borne out when i tried to short just now ..... managed it with difficulty (196.6), so it looks as though latest strength is just a jolly bear squeeze

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=OCDO&S

just 25 and 50 dma .... stock too recent for 200 dma

HARRYCAT - 05 Jan 2011 12:30 - 3 of 52

UBS broker note today:
"Updating valuation price target rises to 197p (from 167p) We have updated our valuation framework for Ocado to reflect the new calendar year as well as some significant share price movements within the valuation peer group. Our valuation methodology an average of EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and DCF remains unchanged. Our Price Target for Ocado rises to 197p from 167p.

Rising peer group valuations Stronger equity markets towards the end of 2010 contributed to some material increases in the valuation levels of Ocados comparable peer group. This was most marked in the cases of Amazon (shares +45% from the time of our initiation on Ocado) and Asos (shares +70%). Although other peer group companies (eg UK food retail stocks) did not experience such emphatic gains, this has naturally influenced our valuation arithmetic.

No new operational news two data points within the next month We are not making any changes to our underlying forecasts at this stage. The company will issue a Q4 (to November) and Christmas trading statement on 10th January, followed by preliminary results on 1 February which will provide more colour on the progress of the business.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy Although our PT rises to 197p, we are downgrading our rating to Neutral from Buy as the strong recent run in the shares (+36% since 31 August) means there is now insufficient upside to merit a Buy rating.

[Edit: For information, theres about 16% of the free float getting shorted at present time of posting]

ValueMax - 05 Jan 2011 12:52 - 4 of 52

"this market may not be sold to open due to stock borrowing restrictions in the underlying market" - IGIndex

annoying

cynic - 05 Jan 2011 12:55 - 5 of 52

try phoning IG - you may be lucky

cynic - 06 Jan 2011 14:08 - 6 of 52

the numbers are a joke relative to sp ..... OCDO are still making operating losses, and all the CEO prattles on about is their hugely increased t/o ..... bet all the directors draw salaries in direct disproportion to the profits too! .... no wonder the world wants to short this stock

BAYLIS - 11 Jan 2011 00:39 - 7 of 52

Gross sales for the 52 weeks to 28 November 2010 rose 29% to 551.1m from a year before.

cynic - 11 Jan 2011 06:29 - 8 of 52

i felt over-invested generally so decided to bank a useful little profit here, not least because sp seemed disinclined to fall even after the results

required field - 24 Jan 2011 08:41 - 9 of 52

Can't believe this ....when they mean turnover ..is it total value of goods transported ?...that's not profit.....would love to short this soon......

cynic - 24 Jan 2011 08:50 - 10 of 52

this is worrying ..... you and i agreeing! ...... sure am glad i closed my previous short though

required field - 24 Jan 2011 09:06 - 11 of 52

1.2 billion pounds for a fleet of lorries...a delivery service ?...I can do it cheaper...

cynic - 25 Jan 2011 15:51 - 12 of 52

i was a bit late, but shorted these today around today's closing price ...... another indian rope trick

skinny - 25 Jan 2011 15:58 - 13 of 52

That's a clever trick - what is today's closing price?

cynic - 25 Jan 2011 18:49 - 14 of 52

228 or thereabouts ...... actually shorted at 228.7

gibby - 11 Feb 2011 10:56 - 15 of 52

easy dough right now imp

gibby - 11 Feb 2011 17:20 - 16 of 52

nice little earner here today - hope some others grabbed some on the bounce

gibby - 12 Feb 2011 16:26 - 17 of 52

hmmmmmmm - i tink i may have a little tickle again in here monday! the jl sell off managed by goldman was to other iis @ 165p!! more easy cash monday depending on sp obviously
reason for sell nowt to do with ocdo but pension fund strategy to limit % shares in anyone co. and was expected anyhow hence the bounce and more monday no doubt lol!

hlyeo98 - 01 Aug 2011 12:47 - 18 of 52

Retail having a bad time.

hlyeo98 - 12 Aug 2011 13:05 - 19 of 52

A record high of nearly one in three consumers say they have no spare cash, according to the retailers representative the British Retail Consortium (BRC).

According to its survey, which was conducted with the information group Neilsen, 65% of consumers have switched to cheaper grocery brands to save on household expenditure. Higher utility bills and fuel prices are squeezing consumers, the BRC says.

BRC chief executive Stephen Robertson claimed that competition within the grocery sector is helping to take the edge off price inflation, with a larger number of promotions and discounts on offer.

Despite increased penny-pinching and the higher number of consumers with no spare cash, the BRC reported a five point rise in its consumer confidence index.

The extra bank holiday and warm spring provided a little light relief for shoppers and perhaps diverted thoughts away from the incessant squeeze on incomes, but sentiment is no higher than it was two years ago when the UK was in the grip of recession, said Chris Morley, Neilsens managing director for the UK and Ireland, said.

Separately, Robertson said that recent riots are likely to be the final straw for many shops that had been struggling with tough trading conditions.

hlyeo98 - 13 Aug 2011 13:17 - 20 of 52


Goldman Sachs downgrades Ocado forecasts amid City concern.


Online retailer Ocado has been dealt its latest blow from the City after Goldman Sachs, its house broker, sharply downgraded its forecasts for the group.

Goldman, which helped lead Ocado's flotation in July last year, downgraded its revenue and profit forecasts and reduced its six-month share price target for the retailer from 297p to 225p.

Ocado's float was priced at 180p. The downgrade comes just weeks before Ocado is due to post its latest trading figures and risks further souring the company's relationship with City investors and analysts.

Tim Steiner, Ocado's chief executive, told The Daily Telegraph in June that the retailer was experiencing "growing pains" and that the company "would have liked to have grown a bit faster than this", leading to warnings of subsequent analyst downgrades.

Forecasts for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) were also revised lower, down 7pc this year and by 15pc in 2012.

Ocado moved into the black for the first time, with a 174,000 pretax profit in the quarter to May 15, but said that the pace of growth year-on-year had slowed due to capacity constraints.

"The capacity constraints are there but we'll get through them," Mr Steiner said, adding that plans for a second distribution centre remained on track, with completion due by the end of 2012.

Goldman's revision comes a month after Panmure Gordon analyst Philip Dorgan found that Ocado's brokers had sharply reduced their estimates for the retailer since its flotation.

Mr Dorgan said sales estimates for the online retailer had been downgraded by 30pc, Ebitda forecasts by 45pc and estimates for pre-tax profits by an eye-watering 62pc. He described the scale of the downgrades as "simply astonishing" and said he saw "considerable future downside to forecasts".

hlyeo98 - 22 Sep 2011 17:34 - 21 of 52

Serious meltdown... 50p soon.
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