sp been rising 2010 and up 14% today on better than-expected results . . . the MMs must be expecting fools to rush in...yet Sells are massivly above Buys - will it end in tears, or are Dirs buying at these highs? All rather surprising as I'd expect Kitchen-sales are all done(when money was cheap up to 2008), and if you are trying to save money - you don't splash out on something you don't need.

I mean - howden does a kitchen "wear out"? - ho - ho!

SEE WHAT YOU MEAN 120p

Opened a long here, chart looks oversold in the near term.

A proper chart. HWDN looks like it could be on the recovery here, SP target high of the year first stop.

Moving up nicely today and little wonder , way undervalued on prospective P/E of just over 7 to 2012......

Howden Joinery Group PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
16-03-11 BUY 105.00 11.70 2.00 111.00 12.40 2.60
Shore Capital
11-03-11 BUY 105.00 11.80
Numis Securities Ltd
04-03-11 HOLD 106.00 11.70 2.00 113.50 12.50 3.00
Execution Noble
04-03-11 BUY 110.00 11.90 2.00 119.40 13.00 3.20
Singer Capital Markets Ltd
03-03-11 BUY 112.00 12.80 124.50 14.20 5.70
Investec Securities
02-03-11 HOLD 105.96 11.52 2.50 112.96 12.28 3.50

2011 2012
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 107.43 11.92 2.11 116.49 12.90 3.62
1 Month Change 0.30 -0.06 -0.13 -0.47 -0.17 0.16
3 Month Change 9.10 0.97 0.11 9.47 1.04 0.74


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS 29.86% 10.34% 8.28%
DPS % % 71.43%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA m 132.58m 140.22m
EBIT m 113.65m 121.95m
Dividend Yield 0.00% 2.09% 3.58%
Dividend Cover x 5.64x 3.56x
PER 9.36x 8.48x 7.84x
PEG 0.31f 0.82f 0.95f
Net Asset Value PS p p p

HWDN Howden Joinery....

Worth noting the latest Broker figures for this company and reckon they will be beaten easily.

Date Broker name New Price Old price target New price target Broker change

25-Feb-11 Panmure Gordon Buy 115.90p 129.00p - Reiteration

10-Feb-11 Singer Capital Markets Buy 124.00p - 150.00p New Coverage

Remember a forward P/E of just over 7 to 2012. Derd cheap.

FLASH: Howden Joinery upgraded to add from hold at Numis
10:55 21/03/2011 125p SP target.

Interesting article from a couple of weeks back. Havent seen this before.....

Howden says has recipe for kitchen sales growth
By James Davey) - Kitchen supplier Howden Joinery

said it was confident of winning more market share in 2011 as its business model focussed on small builders makes the best of a tough market.
Comment....232470 The firm, which supplies kitchen units to over 200,000 small builders from 489 UK depots, on Thursday beat forecasts with a 47 percent rise in 2010 profit.

It said current trading was robust and outlined a plan to resume dividends in the current year, disappointing those who had hoped for a payout on last year's profit.

"The market, the way it's shaping in its complexity with peoples' requirements for a working kitchen, is moving our way," Chief Executive Matthew Ingle, who founded Howden Joinery in 1995, told Reuters.

"Are we immune from a downturn? No we are not, but we have access to more of the markets doing it our way than I think perhaps people are aware of," he said.

Ingle's confidence is underscored by the firm's successful navigation of the 2008 retail downturn, its healthy exposure to public and private landlords remedial work and the "improve not move" phenomenon, and the fact that 200 of its depots are still to fully mature.

He now believes there is scope for 650 UK depots, up from previous guidance of 600, and is opening 30 depots a year.

Howden Joinery, which emerged from the old MFI Furniture business, ended the year with net cash of 35 million pounds ($57 million) and intends to pay a dividend in the current year, subject to the continued progress of the group.

Prior to Thursday's update, shares in the firm had leapt 73 percent over the last six months as it traded well and property liabilities relating to its previous ownership of MFI were mitigated.

The stock was down 3.8 percent at 112 pence at 11:58 a.m., valuing the business at about 705 million pounds, reflecting the fact that it had held back from paying a dividend for 2010.

"Unless the market takes a slump backwards again, there would appear to be scope for upgrades as the year advances," said Singer Capital Markets analyst Matthew McEachran, noting some investors had booked profits on Thursday.

Howden Joinery, which competes with firm's such as Magnet , Wickes , B&Q and Homebase , made a pretax profit of 100.9 million pounds in 2010.

That compares with analysts' average forecast of 98.4 million pounds, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and 68.7 million pounds made in 2009.

Group revenue increased 5 percent to 807.9 million pounds, with sales at UK depots open more than a year up 3.6 percent and gross margins rising 3.6 percentage points to 59.8 percent.

The firm said UK depot revenue in the first two months of 2011 increased 11.6 percent on a same depot basis, although the outcome was flattered by a snow-impacted comparative last year.

(Editing by Jane Merriman and Will Waterman)

http://news.stv.tv/business/232470-howden-says-has-recipe-for-kitchen-sales-growth/

Citigroup upgrade Buy TP raised from 125.00 to 140.00p

Preliminary Results

Financial results (continuing operations1)

The information presented here relates to the 53 weeks to 29 December 2012 and the 52 weeks to 24 December 2011, unless otherwise stated. The inclusion of a 53rd week in 2012 (23 - 29 December) had no impact on revenue, as the business did not trade that week. It is estimated to have increased operating costs by around £5m, reducing 2012 operating profit and profit before tax by the same amount, and reducing profit after tax by around £4m.

· Howden Joinery UK depot revenue increased by 4.0% to £872.5m (up 1.9% on same depot basis). Group revenue was £887.1m (2011: £853.8m);

· Gross profit margin increased to 61.5% (2011: 59.7%);

· Operating profit rose from £115.3m to £119.8m;

· Profit before tax increased to £112.1m (2011: £111.0m), the net interest charge rising by £3.4m (due to a rise in the pensions finance expense);

· Basic earnings per share increased from 13.5p to 14.0p;

· Net cash of £96.4m at year-end (24 December 2011: £57.1m net cash);

· Full year dividend for 2012 of 3p per share (2011: 0.5p).

1 These comments all relate to continuing operations. There was a loss before tax from discontinued operations of £4.4m in 2012 (2011: £9.3m), arising from the closure of two non-core support businesses. Profit before tax from continuing and discontinued operations was £107.7m (2011: £101.7m).

Business developments

· Investment in the future growth of the business continues:

- 20 new depots opened in 2012, bringing total to 529;

- capital expenditure totalled £24.2m;

- £16m investment in operating costs to support growth, including marketing initiatives and a revised regional and area structure, within which our depots are managed;

· Leases on five legacy properties terminated in 2012, and two 'early releases' since then, bringing total remaining to 14.

Current trading

· Howden Joinery UK depot revenue in the first two periods of 2013 rose by 17%, reflecting additional week of trading and timing of price increase - expect growth to normalise through coming periods;

· Our outlook for the business remains unchanged, with the Group well placed to respond to the ongoing challenging conditions.

Canaccord Genuity Buy 231.45 229.30 174.00 305.00 Upgrades

MIDAS SHARE TIPS: Kitchen firm sets its sights on huge expansion drive



By Joanne Hart

PUBLISHED:22:19, 23 March 2013| UPDATED:22:19, 23 March 2013




Howden Joinery was set up in 1995 by Matthew Ingle. Impressively, he is still at the helm today, having built the business up from nothing into a company worth almost £1.5 billion.


The group sells kitchens and joinery to small builders across the country. It has made great strides in recent years, but there is plenty more growth to come and the shares, now 235p, should benefit.


Howden sells only to tradesmen and prides itself on developing long-term relationships with customers by offering good service, loyalty discounts and plenty of stock to choose from. The group has about 530 depots in Britain but Ingle believes there is scope for up to 700 and intends to open between 20 and 30 new sites over the next year alone.



Counter culture: Sales are thriving as Matthew Ingle lets depot heads make real decisions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



This should ensure the company continues to grow, even if the Chancellor’s attempts to kick-start the economy fall short of his expectations. Howden has managed to improve its results through the downturn and recently announced a slight lift in profits to £112 million for 2012 and a massive jump in the dividend from 0.5p to 3p.


The company’s resilience in the face of a tough housing market is notable and stems largely from an exceptionally entrepreneurial culture, where depot managers make their own decisions and really work hard to find new customers.

Howden also benefits from making about a third of the products it sells, producing kitchen cabinets and workshops in factories in Runcorn, Cheshire, and Howden, East Yorkshire. The rest of its goods come from around the world, but most of its suppliers are based in Britain and the Continent.


Last year, Howden supplied 270,000 builders with 3.5 million kitchen cabinets, two million doors and 350,000 complete kitchens. The company hopes to increase these figures substantially over the next few years and is actively working on new designs to entice builders and their customers.


Howden is also expected to deliver growth as it opens new depots and increases customer numbers. Interestingly, too, depots take about seven years to reach full potential and around a third are newer than this, so they should deliver steady sales growth over the next few years.


Howden was once part of MFI and after that collapsed, Ingle was left with numerous retail properties and a large pension deficit. Fortunately, most of the properties have been sold and the deficit is under control, allowing the company to focus firmly on the future. The group also has a small but profitable division in France.


Brokers forecast profits of about £118 million this year and a dividend of at least 4.5p. There is also scope for special dividends in years to come, as Howden generates plenty of money and is keen to return surplus cash to investors.


Midas verdict: Howden Joinery is a well-run business that has managed to grow even when the housing market has been on its knees. At 235p, the shares offer long-term value and the possibility of a special dividend adds spice.

As of Mar 15, 2013, the consensus forecast amongst 12 polled investment analysts covering Howden Joinery Group Plc advises that the company will outperform the market. This has been the consensus forecast since the sentiment of investment analysts improved on Mar 01, 2013. The previous consensus forecast advised investors to hold their position in Howden Joinery Group Plc.

Just read in IC - Howden Joinery has taken 25% of market share since it started in 1995. Its main competitor Magnet is struggling and losing market share.

it seems to me that howdens have a somewhat different market from magnet ..... magnet have showrooms so can show the homeowner (retail) how things look .... howdens save money by having simple design studios in their warehouses ..... they look to work more with builders/designers (trade) who will build a bespoke kitchen albeit for the lower/middle market .... for all that, i think howdens looks an excellent company who have worked out how to maximise profits by minimising costs (expensive showrooms)

Howden upgraded by Canaccord Genuity
22nd March 2013, 14:18

Canaccord Genuity has upgraded its recommendation on Howden Joinery [LON:HWDN] to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ in a note to clients today.

The City broker has increased its price target by 75 per cent to 305 pence per share (previously 175 pence).

Separately, Jefferies increased its price target to 200 pence a share from 160 pence and restated its ‘hold’ call on the stock in a research note issued on Wednesday, March 20th.

Shares in Howden Have increased in value by nearly 20 per cent in the past month.

Broker Forecasts consensus data shows that 60 per cent of brokers now have a ‘buy’ (or equivalent) rating on Howden while 10 per cent rate the shares as a ‘sell’.

At 2:16pm: Howden Joinery share price was up 4 pence at 233.3 pence.

MIDAS tips HOWDEN JOINERY

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-2298116/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-Kitchen-firm-sets-sights-huge-expansion-drive.html

i wonder if HWDN is included in the HG+HC Index - WOS must surely be

==================

keep a note - figures due 26 april
look for t/o £887m (2011 - £854m) with commensurate increase in profit, though that may be pegged back in % terms by necessary capital and other expenditure

with WOS being walloped - it found sales for kitchens (and bathrooms) badly hit - it would have been reasonable for HWDN to have at least ticked lower ...... not so

No quality company.

Looking to test the highs again (triple top ?)

Trading Statement 2nd May.