Is It Time To Buy Platinum? - Jul. 5, 2017 5:59 PM ET|
Summary
Platinum is the worst-performing precious metal in the complex and has been down four of the last five years.
At current prices, mine production is unsustainable and as we approach platinum's cash costs of production, supply will inevitably decrease.
Negativity based on its role in the auto industry is driving investor sentiment.
Implementation of tougher emissions standards in China for diesel are scheduled to go into effect in January 2018, which will use more platinum.
Speculative sentiment is the most bearish it has been since the CFTC has published records in 2006.
While we have put a heavy focus in covering gold and silver, the hammering that platinum has received has piqued our interest. We believe that in platinum investors might have the best opportunity of all precious metals. Of course, looking at the YTD chart of platinum doesn't inspire much confidence:
In fact, it's not only this year platinum has been falling. It has been the worst-performing precious metal over the last 10 years. After the drop seen on Monday, it has fallen four out of the last five years -- how is that for beaten down?
Much of this drop has been attributed to the expectations of "changing consumer interests" as they purchase more gasoline vehicles vs. diesel vehicles. Since gasoline vehicles primarily use palladium in catalytic converters (diesel vehicles use platinum), the result is that industrial demand will fall for platinum -- hence surging palladium, which has almost reached parity with platinum.