THREAD UNDER CONSTRUCTION.
I intend to add further links as I come across them

See also links post 4 mbcat
Keep checking South China Morning Post & SoSick & QuamNet for updates.



World health organisation for daily update


bbc mutation of cold virus





ok Fewer have died so far than die in France in a week on the roads, and we do not stop going to France for a motoring holiday, however there is something very alarming about a bug one cannot see and not know if one has caught for some 10 days (OK better than AIDS were it can be 6 months plus).

There have already been significant Global cancellation of conferences and travel. WHO is worried may now be endemic in China (i.e. got away into the population at large) and hence it may not be possible to contain it. HSBC are downgrading Far East GDP already as a result.

This could be a bigger problem for the world economy (imo) than either the bursting of the bubble, BenLardin, or even the 21 day war.

Any thoughts -

Hi, no way am I an expert,but managed to cut an paste the following link, ok;

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/thestandard/topstory.cfm Anyway the gist of it,is that allthough a couple more people have died, 169 have now been released from Hospital (didn't say what the previous figure was).

From my own Far East investements,can't find many HK links,they tend to be in Chinese (!) and or,you have to pay for them !!!(like South China Post etc).Anyway,hope the above is of some use,good luck, Pho..........

Pugugly

This

&lta href="http://www.moneyam.com"&gtMoneyam home page&lt/a&gt

Should give you a clickable link with a name like this

Moneyam home page

Thanks for the thread Puugly
Phobos that a very interesting article, one thing that I surprised me is that out of the total of 1,059 SARS cases in HK 121 of them are now in intensive care!
This is over 10% so can you imagine the demands on the health service if this became widespread in the U.K ?

News from the front (HK)

It gets better ( worse)

HK has been in the proscess of downsizing it's healthcare over the past couple of years in order to be more efficient & less costly etc - & then the bug bites!

Many of the infected are hospital workers of all grades & professions - and their families & contacts.

Govt is desperately trying to recruit 3-400 highly trained professionals to fill the breach. - some of whom have only recently been "persuaded to retire" a few months before.

Intensive care facilities are reportedly overwhelmed & contingency plans are being aired for the use of sanitoriums & other facilities to become makeshift IC facilities.

On the economic front, Cathay pacific (hitherto one of the worlds few profitable carriers) has said it may have to stop flying altogether & is hemoaraging cash @ >$24M per day, the airport is like a ghost town & unemployment is going through the roof, increasing by the day, with busineses being forced to lay off workers / demand they take unpaid leave & beg the landlords for rent-relief - remember that we have some of the most expensive (un)real-estate in the world & when that stops generating cash, there has to be a knock on to the financial system (banks) who are the ultimate owners by way of the mortgage collateral. Meanwhile property prices are falling even faster than they have been for the past 5.75 years. Also much of govt revenue is normally derived from leases & sales of property & with a alredy HK$80 Bln deficit, there must be some pain in the public finaces which we shall all have to encounter the concequences sooner or later.


Latest theories ( & they are just theories - no-one really knows how this bug works) include the possibility that 2 separate organisms chlamidya & corona viruses are combining to cause such a catastrophic failure in the imune system - as well as the symptoms. Also it seems that both are mutating at a ferocious rate, & therefore detection & treatment is effectively a moving target.

Yesterdays reports are even worse, with the first few young healthy people being struck down & killed by the bug within days of a casual contact with a carrier.

One of the most frightening aspects is that the treatment is disasterous for any foetus & causes deformaties, with so many of the hospital staff being female & of child bearing age, this has to be a huge dilemea for those who spend their lives caring for others - but also need to protect their own.

Having said all that, the hit rate per 00000 population is very low - so far! & most of the infected people have been treated (apparently) successfully , although there has been the odd relapse.

Keep checking South China Morning Post & SoSick & QuamNet for updates.

HONG KONG (Reuters) - The Hong Kong government said on Monday that a deadly respiratory virus had killed seven more people in the territory and infected another 40.

HK Reports 7 More SARS Deaths, 40 New Cases

US investment house Merrill Lynch has cut its growth forecast for Singapore to 1.5 percent, from its pre-SARS estimate of 2.4 percent.

Merrill Lynch cuts Singapore's full-year growth forecast due to SARS

Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao ... ... admitted that while some progress had been made in combating the pneumonia-type disease, the "overall situation remains grave".

China says Sars situation 'grave'

Economists are now predicting that SARS, a deadly pneumonia that originated in China, may have a more damaging effect on East Asia's economies than the war in Iraq

Economist

7 more dead today

RIP

Looking at this page gets me a little worried. Canada is shown as having 100 cases 27 of which have got better, 13 have died and the rest I presume are still ill. Now, I'm not a rocket scientist (yet) but I make that nearly a 33% death rate. The total figures don't look as bad but still look more like 10% rather than the 3.7% reported.

I'm planning a trip to Aus next month, looks like it will have to be on Emirates via Dubai.

Mike.
P.S. The reason I picked Canada is because I think their data may be more reliable.

I saw a report today that said that Chinese restaurants in UK are reporting a drop in business. It is thought that people are avoiding Chinese and other east Asian ethnic restaurants as the staff are more likely to have come in contact with people from areas with the biggest SARS problem.

Haystacks,

Look at the above page and take China out of the picture. The rest of the world is reporting a 25% death rate. I don't believe China.

Mike.

See DTK thread - latest Announcement

Alkrington
No. China has never been truthful when there have been large Flu outbreaks in the past and certainly not about AIDS. Mind you they are not very truthful about much in general.

I was with some people this evening and they were discussing where to go for a meal and several of them wouldn't go to a Chinese restaurant because of SARS. It was quite a shock as one of them owns an Italian restaurant and is not normally squeamish about dangers in general.

SARS Thread

Is that a slur on Italian restaurants? It must be :-)

Very negative article in this week's Economist - However need to be a subscriber to read on line - worthwhile imo in borrowing a copy - On page 51 of the international edition.

Headline - A plague on all our businesses. Basically detailing a range of downgrades across the whole of SouthEast Asia. Stephen roach of Morgan Stanley quoted as saying that SARS will cut growth inAsia (excludign Japan) from 5% to 4.5% in 2003.

Kayak
No. I was in a friend's Italian restaurant in West End and the owner was talking about taking his daughter and some others to Soho and Chinatown for a meal after he closed. Several of the peolle were not keen to go to Chinese area because of SARS,

I see the BBC are now reporting that China's figures are a little suspect and it may now be pandemic.

Mike.

Mayor and Health Minister in Beijing sacked for covering up scale of problem.

In Beijing, shops, restaurants and hotels are empty and locals in Hong Kong say their city is a ghost town, according to the BBC's Holly Williams in the Chinese capital.
The pneumonia-like disease has now spread to four previously unaffected provinces in China, but most of the new cases are in Beijing.
Classes have also been suspended at several universities in the capital, including China Northern Jiaotong University where 118 people are under observation, AFP reported.
The latest victims in Hong Kong - two women and four men - were aged between 48 and 79 and all had a history of chronic illness, a statement from the health department said.

So far, 1,402 cases of the illness have been recorded there.

In Singapore, the authorities have placed 2,400 workers in quarantine and closed a large vegetable market for 10 days after a man working there was diagnosed with Sars.

SARS is now a problem in 25 countries.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/2966117.stm

Sars virus 'mutating rapidly'

The virus thought to cause Sars is constantly changing form, say scientists - which will make developing a vaccine difficult.
The Beijing Genomics Institute reported that the virus is "expected to mutate very fast and very easily".

Other experts have warned that, once established, it could be particularly hard to stop the Sars virus causing problems.

Sars appears to be caused by a new strain of a coronavirus which may have "jumped" from animals to humans in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong.

seems very odd to me that no-one has yet linked this to saddam hussein....sounds very much like a candidate for some kind of germ warfare.

ps if some of the links mention that , my apologies but my 200mHz pc and slow dial up link restrict me to reading posts only