Anyone have any views on whether this share is going anywhere??

just browsing on russian gold producers, and this one took my eye ..... the ubiquitous and scrupulously honest (of course!) Mr Abramovitch owns 40% through Millhouse, but idiot investor he isn't + 20% by Barrick ...... hmm! worth pondering

Russian gold mining expansions
30 Jan 2008 - 11:02

MOSCOW, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Russia's leading gold miners have unveiled ambitious plans to expand reserves and production.

The Russian Gold Industrialists Union expects 2008 to show the first annual increase in production after five consecutive years of decline.

The union forecasts Russian gold output will rise to 225 tonnes (7.2 million ounces) by 2015. Production in 2007 has not yet been fully calculated, but is expected to have dropped by up to 3.0 tonnes from 164.3 tonnes (5.3 million ounces) in 2006.

Russia accounts for about 6.6 percent of world gold output and ranked fifth in terms of production last year. It has reserves second only to South Africa's.

The country's biggest gold miner, Polyus Gold , accounts for about a quarter of Russia's production and ranks fourth in the world in terms of reserves.

To see an ANALYSIS on Russia's gold sector, please double-click on [ID:nL30566257]

Following is a list of planned expansions by the country's largest gold producers.


POLYUS GOLD
Market capitalisation as of Jan. 30: $9.9 billion
Main owners: Mikhail Prokhorov and Vladimir Potanin, who are engaged in a protracted division of their varied assets
2006 output: 1.215 million ounces (23 percent of Russia's total)
Forecast 2007 output: 1.2 million ounces
Long-term forecast: 3.9 million ounces by 2015

Operating mines: Olimpiada (Krasnoyarsk region), Kuranakh (Yakutia), Zapadnoye (Irkutsk), alluvial deposits in Irkutsk region
Development projects include: Blagodatnoye, Titimukhta, Olenii, Tyrada (Krasnoyarsk), Verninskoye, Chertovo Koryto (Irkutsk), Natalka (Magadan), Nezhdaninskoye (Yakutia)

* Polyus is the world's fourth-largest gold company in terms of reserves. An audit by MICON International last year said the company had proved and probable reserves of 68.6 million ounces.


PETER HAMBRO MINING
Market capitalisation as of Jan. 30: $2.2 billion
2007 output: 297,300 ounces
2006 output: 261,000 ounces (4.9 percent of Russia's total)
Long-term forecast: 900,000 ounces by 2010 and more than 1 million ounces by 2011

Operating mines: Pokrovsky, Pioneer (Amur), Omchak (joint venture in Magadan), several alluvial deposits

Development projects include: Malomir (Amur), Novogodnee Monto, Toupugol-Khanmeishorsky (Yamal-Nenets).


POLYMETAL
Market capitalisation as of Jan. 30: $2.6 billion
Main owner: Suleiman Kerimov
2007 output: 242,000 ounces
2006 output: 256,000 ounces (4.8 percent of Russia's total)
Forecast 2008 output: 250,000-270,000 ounces
Long-term forecast: 400,000 ounces by 2010

Operating mines: Dukat, Lunnoye (Magadan), Vorontsovskoye (Sverdlovsk), Khakanja (Khabarovsk)

Development projects include: Albazino, Khakarinskaya (Khabarovsk), Dukat Ore Field, Kubaka (Magadan), strategic alliance with AngloGold Ashanti Ltd (various regions), Rudnichny, Galkinsky (Sverdlovsk), Anenskoye (Krasnoyarsk)

* Polymetal is also Russia's largest silver miner.


HIGHLAND GOLD MINING LTD
Market capitalisation as of Jan. 30: $1.2 billion
Shareholders include: Millhouse LLC (the investment vehicle of Roman Abramovich - 40 percent), Barrick Gold Corp (approximately 20 percent)
2006 output: 167,544 ounces (3.2 percent of Russia's total)
Forecast 2007 output: 160,000-170,000 ounces
Long-term forecast: more than 200,000 ounces by 2009

Operating mine: Mnogovershinnoye (Khabarovsk)

Development projects include: Mayskoye (Chukotka), Taseyevskoye, Novoshirokinskoye* (Chita)

* Novoshirokinsoye is a polymetallic deposit being developed jointly with Kazzinc, a Kazakhstan-based zinc producer owned by swiss-based trader Glencore.


KINROSS GOLD CORP
Market capitalisation as of Jan. 30: $13.6 billion
Toronto-based Kinross could become Russia's second-largest gold miner when it starts its Kupol project in Chukotka. Kupol is due to start in mid-2008 and is forecast to produce about 550,000 ounces of gold per year from 2009. The company also owns the Julietta mine in Magadan region, which is already among Russia's top ten producers. Kinross acquired the assets through its acquisition of Bema Gold Corp.


YUZHURALZOLOTO
Unlisted. The name translates as South Urals Gold
2007 output: 158,900 ounces
2006 output: 127,700 ounces

Operating mines: Svetlinskoye, Bereznyakovskoye, Kochkarskoye, West Kurasan, South Kurasan (all Chelyabinsk), Priisk Drazhny (Krasnoyarsk), Kommunarovsky (Khakassia), Darasun (Chita).


BURYATZOLOTO
Market capitalisation as of Jan. 30: $142.7 million
2006 output: 150,173 ounces (Zun Holba mine 70,107 ounces, Irokinda mine 80,066 ounces)
Forecast 2007 output: 145,400 ounces (Zun Holba mine 69,100 ounces, Irokinda mine 76,300 ounces)

* Buryatzoloto is owned 85 percent by Canada's High River Gold Mines Ltd and operates the Zun Holba and Irokinda mines in Buryatia. Separately, High River Gold also owns 99 percent of the Berezitovy mine in Amur region as well as a gold mine in Burkina Faso and the Prognoz silver deposit in Russia's Yakutia region.


GV GOLD
Unlisted. Plans IPO by autumn 2008 at earliest
2007 output: 102,900 ounces
2006 output: 86,967 ounces
Forecast 2008 output: 118,600 ounces

Operating mine: Golets Vysochaishy (Irkutsk)


SEVERSTAL
Market capitalisation as of Jan. 30: $21.7 billion
Main owner: Alexei Mordashov
Severstal is Russia's largest steel maker including foreign assets. The company last year acquired Celtic Resources Plc and several Russian gold fields. Mordashov said in November he plans to build a gold-mining company that could become Russia's third- or fourth-largest and could be spun off within five years.

actually, it's moot point as to whether Millhouse yet owns 40%, for my research (don't all fall off your chairs!) indicates Millhouse will own 40% through the purchase of 200m of new shares at 151 in two equal tranches ..... the first tranche was issued (i dare say paid for too) on 4th December, but i would hazard that the market/sp has already discounted the whole.

Millhouse has seemingly picked up another slab ...... have still not bought in, but until Mr A falls foul of the Russian hierarchy, there seems to be some pretty good protection her

Good results,but does any one think this is a high risk share.

up again today with a lot of buying continues,and no interest by any one on this thread about there views.

Up and down like a hooers drawers! Have traded these over last few days, quite nerve racking and just a bit of luck on my side, seems to have good support at 37p.

Results were good recently, throwing off cash, looks oversold again

Up today.

My recent findings from another board...


After Tom Ws recent front page article on Gold..

http://sharecrazy.com/beta/daily/982/why-gold-is-nor-rising-but-why-you-should-fill-your-boots-with-gold-stocks

and the rising price of gold..http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif

Ive been researching the market for small cap, producers who stand out from the crowd hoping to make a good medium term investment.

Ive set certain filters with weighting factors eg, cost of production per ounce etc, etc, and narrowed it down to just 2 in the end POG Peter Hambro Mining and Higland GOLD HGM, with the latter looking the most undervalued.

The company mines in Russia.

Half way result headlines to 30/6/2008 were as follows ..

FIRST HALF HIGHLIGHTS

Group profit after tax of US$22.2 million compared to a loss for the same period in 2007 of US$2.8 million

Gold revenue for the first half of 2008 increased by 77% over the same period in 2007 to US$73.7 million on sales of 81,036 ounces

Average realised gold sales price was US$909/oz, up by 39% (first six months of 2007 - US$655/oz). The Group remains unhedged

MNV - Cash operating cost (US$/ounce sold)
472

MNV - Total cash cost (US$/ounce sold)
529

Cash and short term deposits of US$308.7 million at 30 June 2008

Novoshirokinskoye mine on schedule for commissioning at the end of 2008.... ENDS

Net Cash on the books circa of 100 million to 120million, market cap 190 million, profitable a solid balance sheet and a new mine coming on tap producing hopefully by late December 2008. Throw in the eploration side of the business for good measure and we have what looks like a sound value investment.

Chart and TA is looking positive aswell..

long Term Chart



Short Term Chart Showing Double Bottom Formation...



Traders Chart



Chairmans Comments on last results (30/6/2008)...

Commenting on today's announcement Duncan Baxter, Non-Executive Chairman said: 'We have benefited in the first half from the efficiency measures taken in 2007 to improve production at Mnogovershinnoye (MNV) and this is reflected in significantly improved results and we look forward to seeing further progress being made during the rest of the year. Novoshirokinskoye (Novo) is on track to become our second producing mine by the end of the year. In the light of recent Board and Executive appointments and the turmoil in the financial markets which is likely to result in liquidity constraints for the foreseeable future, the Board will examine all aspects of the business to focus on the best way to exploit the Company's strong net cash position. This may have an effect on timing for various projects and will also include looking at opportunities of acquiring additional producing assets.' ENDS

Brokers Estimates....

2008 2009
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)
Investec Securities
21-11-08 BUY 14.48 3.16 19.28 4.43
Arbuthnot Securities
21-11-08 BUY 26.31 5.76 24.54 5.45
Seymour Pierce
14-11-08 HOLD 5.32 5.22
Fox Davies Capital
14-11-08 BUY
Alfa Bank
11-11-08 UREV

2008 2009
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 20.04 5.32 0.00 21.75 5.22 0.00
1 Month Change 0.69 -0.27 0.00 -1.09 0.00 0.00
3 Month Change -6.73 -0.10 0.00 -14.86 -2.77 0.00


GROWTH
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)
Norm. EPS % 45.38% -1.88%
DPS % % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)
EBITDA 10.67m 27.90m 32.35m
EBIT 10.67m 23.82m 23.66m
Dividend Yield % % %
Dividend Cover x x x
PER 15.03x 10.34x 10.54x
PEG f 0.23f -5.60f
Net Asset Value PS 73.85p p p


All in all looks like a sound investment case here with the added bonus maybee of a bid from one of the big boys given the supply shortage in the general market and the amount of cash the company as on its books.

DYOR.

Thanks very much gf I bought some today and also topped up with Pog...I am a gold bull for 2009..

Same here Mitzy, reckon those 2 are the best small producers around at the moment.

one concern with this company is that there cannot be much free float and average volumes are a bare 500k a day ..... however - see my comments from early this year, even if the price was then two and half times higher!

Thanks will do cynic.. good luck.

Beta for POG 1.2 so yep higher than the norm for the market.

HGM beta 0.8 so lower than the market.

price of gold $830 got to help the Sp going forward.

i've been looking for some longs to offset my short stance.
this might fit the bill. will buy on dip. lol do i sound like a journalist?
regards
jkd

100 million to 120 million cash says you buy quicker than you thought.

regards Gf.

dont think so gf
if it gets away from me, then so be it.
regards
jkd

It has come down a couple of points at the close.

gf
so how much you owe me?
lets split the difference and say 110 mil how you want to pay? cash or cheque? you did say cash.
regards
jkd