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Senofi makes a 48.5 Billion Euro offer for Aventis (AVN)

Legal & General has unveiled a two percent drop in global new business sales, in line with expectations, and says it expects to gain market share on the back of rising consumer confidence, New business sales for insurance products fell to 886 million pounds from 906 million on an annual premium equivalent basis. Analyst had forecast sales of between 870-917 million pounds with a consensus of 893 million.

GWR radio company Group said it was not in talks with Capital Radio after a Sunday newspaper said the firms had entered formal discussions on a merger

Irish Life & Permanent Ireland's third-biggest financial company, said it had not held talks over a possible takeover by HBOS countering a newspaper article on Sunday.

 Legal & General FY Sales 875m exp. Vernalis (I), Beale (F), Alterian(I), Scottish Radio Holdings (AGM)

Granada Plc (GAA). BonEx Terms are 1 Redeemable for every 13.84 Ordinary shares.

Treasury conference on Britain in a Global Economy

American Express (Q4),Texas Instruments (Q4), Altera (Q4), Dover (Q4), Hilton Hotels (Q4), Kimberly-Clark (Q4), McDonald's (Q4), Millipore (Q4), Novellus Systems, Safeco, Schering-Plough, American Standard companies (Q4), Lexmark International (Q4)

15.00 Dec Existing Home Sales 6.1m exp

Santander (F)

07.00 Dec German Import Price Index 0.1% exp

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

 Legal & General FY Sales 875m exp. Vernalis (I), Beale (F), Alterian(I), Scottish Radio Holdings (AGM)

Granada Plc (GAA). BonEx Terms are 1 Redeemable for every 13.84 Ordinary shares.

Treasury conference on Britain in a Global Economy

American Express (Q4),Texas Instruments (Q4), Altera (Q4), Dover (Q4), Hilton Hotels (Q4), Kimberly-Clark (Q4), McDonald's (Q4), Millipore (Q4), Novellus Systems, Safeco, Schering-Plough, American Standard companies (Q4), Lexmark International (Q4)

15.00 Dec Existing Home Sales 6.1m exp

Santander (F)

07.00 Dec German Import Price Index 0.1% exp

Arm Holdings (F) PBT 26.9m exp, Games Workshop (I), Kensington Group (F), NDS Group (F), Porvair (F), Home Entertainment (I)

Euromoney (AGM), Abacus Group (AGM)

11.00 CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey

Amazon (Q4), Electronic Arts (Q3), Merck (Q4), RJ Reynolds (Q4), Xerox (Q4), CSX (Q4), Caterpillar (Q4), E.I du Pont de Nemours and (Q4), Lockheed Martin (Q4), Public Service, Enterprise Group (Q4), Marathon Oil (Q4), Xerox (Q4), R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Holdings (Q4), Pepsi Bottling Group (Q4), Broadcom (Q4), Quest Diagnostics (Q4), Avery Dennison (Q4), Burlington Northern Santa Fe (Q4),Countrywide Financial (Q4), Cummins (Q4), Dow Jones and (Q4), Freddie Mac (Q4), Fiserv (Q4), McGraw-Hillmpanies (Q4), Merck & (Q4), NCR (Q4), The New York Times (Q4) Raytheon (Q4), Robert Half International (Q4), SBC communications (Q4), Zions BanCorp (Q4)

15.00 Jan consumer confidence 97.2 exp. 23.30 ABC/Money consumer confidence (25/01)

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG DE

09.00 Jan German IFO Expectations 110.0 exp.

Northern Rock (F) PBT 367m exp.

ML Laboratories (F), Halladale Group (I),

Fairbriar (F)

RM Group (Update), Thirdforce (Update), TriVest VCT (Update)Vodafone Q3 Key Performance Indicators

09:30 Institute for Fiscal Studies green budget 14:30 Dec BBA mortgage lending data

Altria Group (Q4), Sealed Air (Q4), PPL (Q4),nocoPhillips (Q4), Allergan (Q4), AMBAC Financial Group (Q4), Amerada Hess (Q4), C R Bard (Q4), Chiron (Q4), PerkinElmer (Q4), Hershey Foods (Q4), International Flavors and Fragrances (Q4), Kerr-Mcgee (Q4), LSI Logic (Q4), Leggett and Platt (Q4), McCormick & (Q4), Tupperware (Q4), The Hartford Financial Services Group (Q4), Veritas Software (Q4), Norfolk Southern (Q4), Xcel Energy (Q4), Pulte Homes (Q4), Exelon (Q4), Reebok International Ltd (Q4), St Jude Medical (Q4), Tribune (Q4), WM Wrigley Jr (Q4), AOL Time Warner (Q4), Praxair (Q4), Wellpoint Health Networks (Q4)

13.30 Dec Durable Goods Orders 2.0% exp. 15.00 Dec New Home Sales 1100k exp. 19.15 FOMC rate Announcement

Carrefour SA (F), Klepierre (F), TF1 (FR) Saint-Gobain (FR)

Ex Dividend: Bespak (7), DTZ Holdings (2.25), De Vere Group (7.7), Dixons (1.66), FKI (1.5), ICAP (8.5), ITE Group (1.1), Stanley Leisure (2.75), Xansa (1.08)

Astrazeneca (F) PBT $4.24bn exp. Osmetech (I) Crest Nicholson (F) PBT 73.2m exp. Autonomy (F), J Sainsbury (Q3), Sportingbet (Q3)London Stock Exchange Trading Statement WH Smith AGM & Trading Statement Cable & Wireless Q3 Trading Statement

Landround (AGM), Next (Update)

Gyrus Group (Update)

10.30 Jan GfK consumernfidence Survey 3.0 exp.

The Dow Chemical (Q4), Honeywell International (Q4), Baxter International (Q4) Verizon communications (Q4), Black & Decker (Q4), Power-One Inc (Q4) Travelers Property Casualty (Q4), Waters (Q4), Guidant (Q4), Eastman Chemical (Q4) Pinnacle West Capital (Q4), Boeing (Q4), Exxon Mobil (Q4), The Gillette (Q4), Halliburton (Q4), Eli Lilly and (Q4), Sears Roebuck and (Q4), Anadarko Petroleum (Q4), Apache (Q4), Ball (Q4), Brunswick (Q4), Coca-Cola Enterprises (Q4), Danaher (Q4), Deluxe (Q4), Duke Energy (Q4)

13.30 Q4 Employment cost Index 0.9% exp. 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 24/01) 342k exp. 19.00 Minutes of Dec 9th FOMC Meeting

Hennes & Mauritz (F)

09.00 Nov M3 3m ma 7.6% exp.

Friends Provident FY Sales 427m exp,

Whittard of Chelsea (I)Allied Domecq (AGM), Alibi communications (AGM)

Ultimate Leisure Group (EGM) Forever Broadcasting (AGM), Slimma PLC (AGM)

09.30 Dec Final M4 Money Supply y/y 6.7% exp. 09.30 Dec Net consumer Credit 1.4bn exp. 09.30 Dec Net Lending Secure on Dwellings 8.7bn exp.

Chevron Texaco (Q4)

13.30 Q4 GDP 4.9% exp. 13.30 Q4 Personal consumption 3.0% exp. 14.50 Jan Final Michigan Sentiment 102.7 exp. 15.00 Jan Chicago PMI 62.0 exp.

Pechiney (F), SAP (F)

07.00 Dec German Retail Sales m/m 0.5% exp 09.00 Nov Current Account 6.5bn exp.

11.00 Jan Industrial confidence 7.0 exp. 11.00 Jan Economic confidence 95.6 exp. 11.00 Jan consumer confidence 16.0 exp. 11.00 Jan Business Climate Indicator 0.0 exp.

Filtronic (I), Murgitroyd Group (I), Nwf Group (I)

Real Affinity (EGM), Dewhurst (AGM)

 09:30 Jan CIPS construction PMI  09:30

15:00nstruction Spending Dec 15:00 ISM Index Jan

17:00 Auto Sales 17:00 Truck Sales

18:30 Personal income Dec 18:30 Personal Spending Dec

BOC Group (I), Caffe Nero (I) Epic Group (I), SurfControl (I), XP Power (F)

Numis corporation (AGM)

ARC International (F)

Windsor (AGM), Daily Mail & General Trust (AGM)

Ex Dividend:

Regent Inns (I), ICI (F), Shell Transport (F) Signet Group (F), Smith and Nephew (F)

Greencore Group (AGM)

Next Week

AstraZeneca will dominate the corporate arena this week with its full-year results announcement while firms in the drinks and retail sector are also due to report. The sliding dollar is set to hit chipmaker STMicroelectronics and we have an update from spirits group Allied Domecq.  Vodafone will release on Wednesday its fiscal third quarter key performance indicators (KPI) like subscriber numbers.

The U.S. reporting season enters the second half of a two-week peak, with investors awaiting guidance on the U.S. economy from the Federal Reserve whose two-day meeting to discuss interest rates ends on Wednesday. MondayLegal & General report FY Sales which are expected at  875m Tuesday

Arm Holdings is expected to post an improvement in revenues to 32.5m for the three months to December 31 against 31.7m in the previous quarter - although full-year profits are set to be 43% lower at 25.8m. But fund manager Gerrard says there is a danger that any optimism will be tempered by a weak US dollar. In October, ARM hinted that fourth-quarter results could be better than market expectations. The company's view of a recovery in the semiconductor industry was recently borne out by Intel Kesa high Street electricals group will report on the nine weeks ending January 3 following reports from competitors that suggest a quiet month for electrical retailers in November and a pick-up in sales over Christmas. Competition increased over the period, especially from Dixons, and this may have slowed sales growth at Comet to less than the anticipated 2%, while French arm Darty should post sales growth of 3% after benefiting from demand for new technology.

Germany's influential Ifo index of business sentiment is released.Wednesday

Northern Rock banking group posts full-year results and Gerrard is expecting pre-tax profits up 14% to 375m and a strong mortgage market driving year-on-year income growth of 14%.

Vodafone releases an update and it is expected that subscriber growth has been robust with the 130 million subscriber mark for the first time. The market also wants to know what Vodafone will do with its whopping 20 billion pound cashpile -- return it to shareholders or buy more rivals.

The U.S Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on Tuesday and Wednesday but is expected to leave U.S. rates at a 45-year low of 1.0 percent when its decision comes out at about 1915 GMT on Wednesday. but is expected to leave U.S. rates at a 45-year low of 1.0 percent when its decision comes out at about 1915 GMT on Wednesday.Thursday

AstraZeneca is expected to post full-year profits of 2.29bn compared with 2.39bn for the previous year. Sales of cholesterol treatment Crestor will come under scrutiny following its launch 22 weeks ago. The firm could get a boost from the ailing dollar as the group reports in the U.S. currency whose fall should help inflate earnings figures.Cable & Wireless has provided its fair share of corporate news over the past three months with the key announcement that it had found an exit route from its US operations at a cost of no more than 300m. Attention will turn to the restructuring of its UK business when the telecoms group updates the market on its trading.

Autonomy is expected to report annual pre-tax profits of 4.4m on sales of 32m. Of more interest will be Autonomy's view of software spending by companies. In October, Autonomy said it saw a significant recovery in activity levels at the end of the third quarter

Crest Nicholson is expected to report profits between 72m and 75m.

Friday

Allied Domecq gather its shareholders for its AGM on Friday and is also expected to provide an update on trading In October, Allied Domecq warned of difficulties in European economies, which held back sales growth, though rival spirits group Diageo said some markets, especially the US, were showing signs of a pickup.

Thoughts!

In last week thoughts we had a 5 day intraday chart which I said could be used as an aid to predicting the market. A copy of this can be seen at the bottom left of the top chart.  The question was would it work and how could we make use of it? Well on Monday morning the US futures were very strong and this quickly drove the FTSE some 40 points above the resistance point of the uptrend. I love these situations as they nearly always come back to the support in the longer term uptrend. This duly happened and by Thursday evening the FTSE had fallen back and finally found bottomed out at the support of the previous trend for a nice 30 points.  If we had been really brave we could have reversed here and gone 'long' waiting for the bounce back simply by having some confidence in the Intraday charts. This week we have the opposite of last week so we will do the same again next week and see if it works again. It would not be surprising to see a bounce back to resistance at the start of next week in continuation of the latest 3 day downtrend.

I have never been a traditional chartist but as a computer programmer I have a good idea how financial computer software should work.  It can be programmed to operate over any time scale from seconds to years. In the top chart we saw trends used for day trading and in the bottom chart we can see patterns which can be exploited for longer term trading.  In this one we have several points of interest one of which is the correlation between market direction and volume. Although the volume data at the bottom does appear to be mostly noise there are some interesting patterns within it.

One is market volume tends to reduce ahead of a fall in the market itself. If you had 'bought' the DOW when it had very high volumes in the blue 400 million area you would have generally done very well. Conversely if you had 'sold' the DOW when when the volume was within 200 million shares per day range you would have again never failed to have taken a profit over the longer term. This of course is were the DOW at the current time but is it the right time to short the DOW at the moment?

Of course Mr Spaceman on the MoneyAm BB with his errrrrr tongue in cheek Concorde method of prediction could give us a definitive answer to this question by showing the movements expected with up and down moves resulting in changes to the level of the market would provide the answer. Or something like that! :-)

But there may be a second way to get some guidance and that is with the yellow and red timing lines along the base of the chart below the volume. There is no difference to the yellow or red colours it just makes its easier to see the different timing points. These lines are all of the same length and interestingly the start of them roughly corresponds to the low volume points.   So historically we would expect the market to begin to fall shortly after the beginning of the red and yellow lines. During the last 12 months the last 2 timing lines have only been followed by a small fall but we have just started the latest red line and I have a feeling this may be a good one!

Over the longer term it is interesting to note that volumes fall in a bull market and rise as the bears come out to play. The points where the bull's & bears meet are the conflict points (Yellow Blobs) and agree with high and low points on the volume chart. At the moment it looks like the bears are coming out of the winter hibernation and may well give those bulls a good fight!

As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on the week ahead!  David (Crocodile) David@SnappyTrader.com  www.SnappyTrader.com

All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.

Headlines Sunday 25th January

The number of people looking to buy a new home in the next 12 months has fallen to its lowest level for four years

A RISE in interest rates next month now looks certain, after the release of strong retail figures and further signs of an economy continuing to grow. 

Intelligent Finance last night reacted angrily to claims that it is set to close its Gyle headquarters in Edinburgh, and merge its operations into HBOS's retail arm.

SUNDAY TIMES 'Eco-cement' to hit CRH profits O'Reilly stays in Eircom chair as new board shortlist is drawn up Agenda: William Lewis: Shell needs much more than a PR offensive Lloyds TSB News in Brief: Widows bonus cuts Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Michael Page? Judgement Day: Should you buy shares in Galen Holdings?

Antofagasta to boost its board for FTSE debut Sainsbury to pounce on newsagent

Reichmann in Wharf bid C&W plugs into pop downloads from internet Lovering in last-minute move to wrest Safeway from Morrison Losses leap to 411m at Energis IRS has ex-Glaxo chief taped Investors anger at WH Smith leadership Cairn is acquisition target  

John Lovering retail entrepreneur, is planning a last-minute 3.5 billion bid to snatch the supermarket group away from Sir Ken Morrison

As long as life remains in the housing market, shares in Northern Rock should have further to go from 729p. The group, which will report strong results this week, only has to sell one in every 17 mortgages to maintain growth.

Handover to leave WH Smith early William Morrison Lovering plots Safeway counterbid VT Group buys into AirTanker Manchester United Ferguson contract queried Lovering plots Safeway counterbid

OBSERVER Investors should kill WH Smith Swann song Hunters Leisure For richer, for poorer? EMAP A taste of Sugar for the boys? Sorted Who rules the roost at Canary Wharf?

Leeds bet their shirt on Smith sale

Daily Mail & General to bid 500m for Telegraph Chorion Trust News in brief WH Smith chief faces fat-cat uproar SMG Scottish Media boss set to stand down  

MAIL ON SUNDAY Banks get tough on Chelsfield buyout

High Street sales signal rate rise, Growth tops Chancellor's forecast BAE loses on 13bn defence deal, Air refuelling contract goes to EADS Leeds United debts top 100m, 18 players earn 1m a year 34bn bid in the wings for Aventis, Plan to create world drugs giant Another 600 staff axed by Boots, Headquarters' jobs will be halved Telegraph strike threat over Black NSB Retail set to beat 2.5m forecast, Firm gets positive feedback on US trial

Cake toppings make Finsbury queasy, Heavy-handed staff trigger warning Credit card fears over 22bn spending, Rate rise could trigger debt disaster PizzaExpress bid on way for Ask, New offer could kill rival's bid Charitable exit for Baltimore investors, Low-cost share-dealing scheme Ultraframe under cloud in Britain, US gives group sales a boost Battle over WH Smith chief's pay, Investors urged to vote against deal Microsoft reveals profits setback, $2.17bn charge for stock-based pay

Aventis pharmaceuticals group was today bracing for a hostile takeover bid worth e50bn (34bn) or more from France's Sanofi-Synthelabo

Equitable Life. The Serious Fraud Office is 'to consider a number of issues' raised in a report into what went wrong'

INDEPENDENT  The Week Ahead: Leeds United on the edge of the abyss

Northern Rock The Week Ahead: Leeds United on the edge of the abyss The Week Ahead: Leeds United on the edge of the abyss

Swan plans big cull at WH Smith HQ British Airways 4,000 jobs to go as BA slashes costs AstraZeneca The Week Ahead: Leeds United on the edge of the abyss

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY  Tesco It's a steal in battle for the aisles

Spectre of Emap hangs over Scottish Radio Holdings Royal Bank remains a City favourite in spite of 3% shares slip Boom time for Cairn shares after dream Indian oil discovery Tesco It's a steal in battle for the aisles

Scottish and Southern Decision-time for Transco deal Cairn Energy Strike it lucky Ministry of Defence 'has no appetite' to bail out BAE British Energy may keep HQ site HBOS Masterton to sell stake in Stadia

SUNDAY EXPRESS  SDL, An upbeat trading statement from the translation software specialist prompted one broker to introduce a buy rating. The company, whose shares stand at 111.5p, said its global strengths meant it was attracting larger corporate customers. Sanctuary music group is expecting further growth this year after raising profits 20% in 2003. Tours from Destiny's Child and Beyonce should help its performance in 2004. Buy at 46 1/4p. EasyJet has been buoyed lately by upbeat comments from brokers. In addition, 30% of its costs are denominated in dollars, which means it should benefit from the US currency's recent weakening. Buy at 359p.

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy - HBOS (HBOS), WS Atkins (ATK), Debt Free Direct (DFD), Ben Bailey (BBC), Melrose (MRO). Sell - Superscape (SPS).Tips Updates: Alpha Airports (AAP) (fairly priced), First Quantum (FQM) (good value), Bellway (BWY) (keep buying), Cairn Energy (CNE) (fairly priced) and Systems Union (SUG) (buy).

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy - Music Choice Europe (MUS), Tadpole Technology (TAD), Host Europe (HER), Intelligent Environment (IEN), London Bridge Software (LNB) and HHG (HHG). Close/sell Dixons (DXNS).Small Shares: CA Coutts (CAH) (long-term buy). Keep an eye on African Eagle (AFE). Grosvenor Land (GVR) (support the offer). Mean Fiddler (MEF) (buy). Alkane (ALK) (could be better value elsewhere). Brainspark (BSP) (not out of the woods yet). Pharmagene (PGN) (speculative buy).

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com