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GLOBAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Well Undervalued And As Yet Untouched By The B/B Herd (GED)     

goldfinger - 28 Apr 2005 16:19

Been looking at this one ever since results were published back on the 7th april. Its both an Oil Explorer and Developer and just throws off cash and makes a profit. I wouldnt initialy go into it because the shares were very tightly held especially by the US Oil Company Harken Energy I think they had around 85% of the share equity and the stock was not very liquid, but thats changing as Harken sells off shares into the market especially to the Large Institutions. In fact its just sold another tranch off today.

It really as a lot going for it and since the results as been tipped by two Brokers Teather and Greenwood and Equity Development) as strong Buys but the good thing is that the price as not yet really moved, the city have not caught onto this one yet and this is an ideal opportunity to get on board. Its also won new contracts and its NAV estimated short term to be 367p, long term 729p is up against a share price of only 161p. The P/E for the company for 2005 is only 6 and for 2006 a mere P/E of 4, compare that to some of the Blue Skers around and it is amazingly cheap. The institution Fidelity have also taken a big stake in the last couple of days and those boys know what they are doing.

Last Results to 31st December 2004.


Financial Highlights



Revenues up 28% to $10,974,000 (2003: $8,556,000)



Gross Profit up 65% to $5,349,000 (2003: $3,239,000)



Profit before tax up 292% to $3,127,000 (2003: $797,000)



No debt as at 31 December 2004



Finding cost of approximately $5 per barrel in the three years ending 31
December 2004



107% increase in Capital Expenditure budget for 2005 (2004: $8,700,000)

- fully funded from cash available and cashflow from production


Operational Highlights



2 exclusive contracts signed in Colombia in 2004 and another exclusive
contract in Peru added post the year end



Portfolio now much enlarged and prospect rich - trend towards exploration
against backdrop of established production

- 6 contracts and 1 pending contract covering approximately 3 million
acres in Colombia, Peru and Panama

- 100% ownership of all contracts



Production widened to 10 wells from 4 contracts as at 31 December 2004

- Record daily production of 2230 bopd from 11 wells as at 3 April 2005



Multiple exploration prospects within enlarged portfolio in all 3
countries already independently reported on

- First exploration expenditure since flotation on properties held under
contract to occur in 2005



Anticipate signing at least 2 additional exclusive contracts or Technical
Evaluation Agreements during the remainder of 2005

Director Speak.

Commenting of the results for 2004 and progress post the year end, Stephen Voss,
Managing Director, said:



'We are very optimistic about Global's position within the oil industry. We
identified many years ago three pre-eminent countries in which to operate -
Colombia, Peru and Panama - that have continually offered improved industry
terms and economic and political stability. All three continue to have few
independents operating in them and as a consequence Global continues to maintain
its first mover advantage and the opportunity to acquire additional attractive
acreage.



We have significantly enlarged our portfolio since our flotation three years ago
and now have a much diversified portfolio offering multiple prospect
opportunities in addition to established production. This production throughout
2004 against historically high oil prices resulted in record financial results
for the year.



Our production and strong-pipeline of near-term production allows the Company to
continue to build on a solid financial base whilst beginning to pursue the
considerable exploration prospects under contract and pending contract which the
management believe are capable of significantly enlarging and transforming the
Company going forward.'


Forward Outlook

We are very optimistic about Global's position within the oil industry. We
identified many years ago three pre-eminent countries in which to operate -
Colombia, Peru and Panama - that have continually offered improved industry
terms and economic and political stability. All three continue to have few
independents operating in them and as a consequence Global continues to maintain
its first mover advantage and the opportunity to acquire additional attractive
acreage.



We have significantly enlarged our portfolio since our flotation three years ago
and now have a much diversified portfolio offering multiple prospect
opportunities in addition to established production. This production throughout
2004 against historically high oil prices resulted in record financial results
for the year.



Our production and strong-pipeline of near-term production allows the Company to
continue to build on a solid financial base whilst beginning to pursue the
considerable exploration prospects under contract and pending contract which the
management believe are capable of significantly enlarging and transforming the
Company going forward.ENDS.

Conclusion.

Way undervalued in my eyes and a lot of others in the industry aswell. The future is very exciting. Remember its not a Petrel or a White Nile so dont expect fireworks. Its got an high beta and the shares are still relatively tightly held. Further news flow will move the share price this year and beyond. You will have to be patient with this one but I beleive it to be an exceptional investment.

DYOR.

cheers GF.

TA looks rather strong.....................

p.php?pid=legacydaily&epic=GED&type=1&si

goldfinger - 28 Apr 2005 16:26 - 2 of 367

On a smaller scale looks to be in an upward trend chanel. RSI looks very positive.

p.php?pid=legacydaily&epic=GED&type=1&si

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 28 Apr 2005 16:30 - 3 of 367

From Eqity Development.

Global Energy Development; Here comes the growth; production and cash flow to rise.
Apr 22, 2005
No surprises in results
Further positive newsflow expected
Core NAV (proven and probable) now 376p/share
Further risked upsides of 353p / share means full valuation of 729p / share
Increase due to oil price forecast, royalty changes and further data on the first well in Block 95, Peru, ENDS.

You can see the full Broker note here at this link and beleive me its well worth having a read. Just click on view document and you should get the full report, if you dont just sign up free it only takes a minute.



http://www.equity-development.co.uk/client/view.php?docid=182&newsletterid=

cheers GF.

sidtrix - 28 Apr 2005 16:33 - 4 of 367

hmmm damn cant buy it online!!! lol Was just gonna dive in... guess will wait for Monday!

Did a quick lookup on it and it sounds very tempting!

blackbelt - 28 Apr 2005 16:36 - 5 of 367

I read in a recent post of yours that you where off to "digital-look" stock screener to search for some stocks, is this what you came up?

Ive liquidated come of my funds recently in a couple of blue skyers like PIX (down 10% today thank f**K) so il definately check this one out, I need to get a bit of stability back in my portfolio

cheers for the info

goldfinger - 28 Apr 2005 16:36 - 6 of 367

Well worth having a look over the road aswell where energyi probably the most informed poster on mining there is, is a big fan and tips it, not the usual rubbish that you get on that site for a change.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 28 Apr 2005 16:42 - 7 of 367

Hi Blackbelt ,

yes it was in there with the criteria that I set although I wasnt specificaly looking for this one. I have a couple of others from my sifts that I am still working on. Forgot to mention the market cap is only 45million.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 28 Apr 2005 16:53 - 8 of 367

KEY CHANGES TO VALUATION

We have made a number of key changes to our cashflow models and valuation
reflecting changed assumptions of both reserves and the pace of development
and exploration.

Ecopetrol Back-in. We now assume, for simplicitys sake and for DCF valuation
only, that Ecopetrol will back in to the Alcaravan and Bolivar licences
effective 1/1/2007 thereby reducing GEDs interest to 50% in each case. In
reality the process would be likely to take place on a well by well basis as has
already been seen on Cajaro-1. We also assume that no cash changes hands. We
believe that the Torcaz and Canacabare licenses will be respectively too
marginal and too small for Ecopetrol to back into. Los Hatos and Rio Verde are
not subject to Ecopetrol back-in and will remain 100% GED. Should the back-in
occur a year earlier (i.e. 1/1/2006) this would drop core value by 36p/share.
Palo Blanco. The imminent workover of Estero-3 and the drilling of Los Hatos-1
could rapidly augment production in the area. Estero-5 encountered thinner
sands than expected in the Ubaque, but production is rising steadily from the well
providing evidence for substantial reserves upsides from the field as the strong
water drive sweeps oil through the reservoir. We assume that four more
development wells will be drilled on the field with Estero-6 being completed by the
end of 2005, and Estero-7, 8 and 9 in the second half of 2006. We carry a higher
reserves number than Ryder Scott reflecting our positive stance towards the field.

Bolivar GED hopes to install the long awaited gas injection equipment on the
Catalina field in June 2005. This involves converting the watered out Catalina-1
well into an injection well and completing the existing Buturama-2 well as a
producer. We understand that the use of gas injection and multilateral wells on
Catalina is viewed as improved oil recovery by ANH and that the effective royalty
may drop from its current 20% this year. We have assumed it falls to 8% and this
provides a substantial boost to NPV (30p/share). GED expects to see measurable
improvements in recovery within 6 months. After the Llanos basin drilling has
completed GED hopes to commence drilling the first of 3 horizontal multilateral
development wells on the Catalina field over the next year. We assume a further
8 producing wells and two water injectors would be drilled into the Catalina
structure in subsequent years. We have upgraded our reserves estimate for the
field (on a 100% basis) to 12.8mmbbls from 9.0mmbbls reflecting some of the
increased recovery likely with the multilateral well programme. There is scope for
substantial further upgrades to the reserves on Catalina. Longer term there is
further appraisal/development upside on the existing Reposo and Trigos
structures that have been logged as oil discoveries.

Rio Verde The successful completion of Tilodiran-1 and Macarenas-1 in the last
6 months has confirmed commercial production from both fields. GED hopes to
optimise pump design on both wells perhaps doubling production from each well.
GED plans to shoot development seismic over the fields in the next few months in
order to better locate subsequent development wells. We expect Tilodiran-2 to be
drilled later this year and Macarenas-2 at the end of 2006. We have upgraded our
reserves estimates to 4.4mmbbls from 3.2 mmbbls following the positive results
of both re-completions.
Back-in factored in
4 more wells envisaged
Gas injection
Royalty rate expected to
fall significantly lifting
value
Optimising pump selection
key to short term
production

Torcaz GED plans to test a huff and puff CO2 miscible flood injection scheme
on the Torcaz field in 2005 (together with possible fraccing) and has abandoned
plans for in-situ combustion to enhance recovery. GED will truck pressurised CO2
from Ecopetrols refinery 75km from the field and inject it into the field via the
producing well for a certain period. The CO2 dissolves in the crude oil reducing its
viscosity and density and hopefully enhancing production and recovery. We will
watch the results of this test with interest but have continued to assume a
conventional development in our valuation

Los Hatos We have added a valuation for a second full exploration well in the
Los Hatos contract which we expect to spud at the end of 2006.
Bolivar exploration We have included a separate, very conservative valuation
for the exploration prospects in the Bolivar concession which we believe could
start to be targeted in 2008. This is separate from our valuation for the appraisal
of existing discoveries on the contract.

Bretaňa We have decided to delay development for a year based on GEDs
conservative view of timescales. The twinning and testing of Bretaňa-1 now looks
likely to have slipped into Q2 2006 and may be delayed further by the rainy
season. Again rig availability is the main constraint.
Peru exploration GED has stated it intends to drill an exploration well in Block
95 in 2008. We believe it is more likely that such a well would be drilled back to
back with twinning of Bretaňa-1 in early 2007. We have also substantially
upgraded our risked valuation for this well where the structure is now mapped as
almost 200mmbbls unrisked. There remains a further 800mmbbls of unrisked
leads on the licence which we continue to place no value on. We would hope to
assign some value to this after the expected electromagnetic and seismic surveys
have been completed.

Panama Despite the delay in the award of the Panama licence we maintain our
existing option valuation. Once awarded GED hopes to shoot both 2-D and 3-D
seismic over the acreage in the next 18 months in order to refine drilling targets
for 2006/7. We will review prospectivity in greater detail post the licence award
expected in Q2/Q3.

Tax Shelter We expect GEDs Colombian operations to continue to benefit from
a tax shelter which we include in our valuation. We believe that the remaining
losses carried forward will expire in 2006 after which we expect GED to become a
full Colombian corporate tax payer. Before 2007 the small tax payment expected
is a Colombian presumptive income tax only.

cheers GF.

mickeyskint - 28 Apr 2005 17:05 - 9 of 367

How politically stable are the countries they are in ie Colombia, Peru and Panama. Any marauding bandits likely to put a spanner in the works. Excellent web site and very up front with info. They have a lady to look after investors and seem to have a caring attitude which makes a change. Still number crunching, but looks good so far.

Web site. www.globalenergyplc.com

MS

chad - 28 Apr 2005 17:33 - 10 of 367

Yea, looks good fundamentally and Fidelity dipping in really inspires confidence. I wouldnt go looking for a small oil stock at the mo cos ive read a lot of stuff urging caution, but this one does look like a winner at first glance. Ill be back when ive done my homework on it.

mickeyskint - 28 Apr 2005 17:45 - 11 of 367

This needs to be resolved and could be a problem. It's worth taking a good look at the parent company Harken, who's tack record is a bit chequered and not the flavor of the month stateside. They still hold 70%.

The Vampire - 28 Apr'05 - 12:30 - 420 of 423


I cannot trade with Comdirect or Halifax, as the stock is not crest.
Seems this will prove as a barrier to many private investors.
The company needs to resolve this situation.

The above from the other place.

MS

wilbs - 28 Apr 2005 19:12 - 12 of 367

Can buy with Hoodless Brennan.
wilbs

goldfinger - 28 Apr 2005 23:14 - 13 of 367

I suspect you can now buy with anyone who as the right to sell. If they cannot buy them for you tell them you are going elsewhere. I bought a thosand Quids worth today through the small share centre, and there were no problems.

Tommorow I hope buy at least 20 thousand worth (market being reasonable) and it might be via 2 brokers but who cares when the end result is a positive.

I ask and urge you to read the Broker report from Eqity Development above.


cheers GF.

goldfinger - 28 Apr 2005 23:34 - 14 of 367

From Oil Barrel...................................




11.04.2005
GED Posts Strong Results And Eyes Exploration Debut In Colombia
Global Energy Development, which trades on Londons Alternative Investment Market, has posted record financial results, with revenues up 28 per cent at almost US$11 million and net income up 148 per cent at US$2.6 million. The company, which focuses its efforts on Colombia, Peru and Panama, is currently pumping 2,230 barrels per day from its properties and has a proved and probable reserve base equivalent to 16.5 million barrels of oil.

Global is taking a cautious approach to growing its portfolio. It focuses on countries with generous fiscal terms - Colombia and Peru offer some of the most attractive terms in the industry - and prefers to sign up for low-cost entry positions (known as technical evaluation agreements) that allow it to scout out a blocks potential before committing to expensive seismic and drilling work. The company steers clear of blue-sky exploration and favours projects that can be quickly monetized through low cost drilling, workovers and tie-ins. Even so, the exploration spend is expected to ramp up in the coming years until it equals the development budget. This will be funded from cash flows from rising production streams.

This year should see the companys first spend on exploration outside of a technical evaluation agreement with some US$1million of the 2005 US$18 million capex budget earmarked for exploration. This cash will be spent on reprocessing and revaluation of existing data on its properties in Panama and Colombia plus the acquisition of new micro-magnetic geophysical data in Peru.

Globals production stream comes from its assets in Colombia, where it plans to drill or workover at least four or five wells over the next 18 to 20 months. It has already had some early success in this programme. In March, for example, the company worked over the Canacabare-1 well in the Anteojos field, which neighbours - and is connected to - the companys existing Palo Blanco field. Both fields lie in the Alcaravan Contract Area. The workover has increased production from the well from around 100 bpd to 198 bpd. It is now looking for offset well locations for further developing drilling on the field.

Global bulked up its holdings in Colombia over the course of last year. In September, it signed a new Exploration and Production Concession contract with ANH for the Rio Verde area, covering 75,000 acres in the central Llanos region. Two existing wells in the contract area, Tilodiran-1 and Macarenas-1, were recompleted and brought on production over the turn of the year. A development well, Tilodiran-2, is planned for the end of 2005 or early 2006 plus seismic work over the remaining acreage.

In November, the company signed up for the Los Hatos Exploration and Production Concession contract, which lies to the south of the companys producing Palo Blanco oilfield. An exploration well, Los Hatos-1, is planned for the fourth quarter and the company is optimistic that the well will mirror the success of the nearby Cajaro-1 producer, which is part of the Palo Blanco development.

Global is also active in Peru, where it holds rights to Block 95 in the Maranon Basin in the northeast of the country. This block includes the Bretana field, which was discovered in 1974 with the successful test of the Bretana-1 well, which flowed 800 barrels per day of 18-degree API gravity oil. Global hopes to drill its first well on this structure in late 2006 or early 2007. An exploration well on the block is slated for late 2008.

In Panama, Global hopes to finalise a contract later this year to explore three on and offshore blocks, including the Garachine Block Area which lies within 100 miles of the strategic Panama Canal. This is a historic oil area, with several shallow onshore wells finding good oil shows in the Mid Miocene back in the 1920s. More recent offshore seismic exploration in the eastern Gulf substantiated this potential.

This year the company expects to sign up at least two more contract areas or technical evaluation agreements. Its adding up to a nice little business in an industry-friendly region yet the stock often flies below the radar of many investors. Spun out of US oil outfit Harken Energy, liquidity is a problem as the Texan firm still holds around 85 per cent of the stock. Addressing this issue could pave the way for making this growing company more attractive to would-be investors.

cheers GF. PS remember Harken are selling into the market and we got in first. Things look good for a bright future.





goldfinger - 29 Apr 2005 01:07 - 15 of 367

And liquidity is getting better by the week, check out the list of RNS posts.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 29 Apr 2005 08:43 - 16 of 367

Added this morning but it seems some of the banks dont deal in this one. Couldnt get them with the HSBC strange.

cheers GF.

wilbs - 29 Apr 2005 08:47 - 17 of 367

I bought 884 first thing through Hoodless but had to phone through for a quote.
wilbs

mickeyskint - 29 Apr 2005 10:23 - 18 of 367

This one's not for me GF. I don't like the tight grip Harken has with a 70% holding. They only employ 9 people so it must be the secretary who does the drilling. Good luck with it, hope you make a bundle.

MS

goldfinger - 29 Apr 2005 10:40 - 19 of 367

LOL Mickey, I bet she gets a bit of drilling aswell.

cheers GF. PS, well it must be a good share its the only one I can find that hasnt fallen this morning LOL.

mickeyskint - 29 Apr 2005 11:38 - 20 of 367

That put a smile on my face GF nice one.

MS

chad - 29 Apr 2005 13:17 - 21 of 367

LOL. Thats what you need when the markets are like this, a good laugh.
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