Group Chief Financial Officer’s review

The Group delivered a resilient performance in challenging conditions in the third quarter of 2020

Summary of financial performance

1 Comparisons presented on the basis of the current period's transactional currency rate, ensuring like-for-like currency rates between the two periods

2 Not meaningful

The Group delivered a resilient performance in challenging conditions in the third quarter of 2020, with lower interest rates partially offset by strong underlying performances in several products and markets, good cost control and an encouraging sequential improvement in credit impairment. Income declined 12 per cent - impacted by lower interest rates - and expenses including continued investment were 1 per cent lower compared to 3Q'19. Credit impairment increased 27 per cent but reduced for the second consecutive quarter despite the extraordinary external environment. Underlying profit declined 40 per cent reflecting higher impairments and a 38 basis point decline in net interest margin.

The Group remains strongly capitalised and highly liquid with a CET1 ratio of 14.4 per cent - above the top of the medium-term target range - an assets-to-deposits ratio of 63.8 per cent and a liquidity coverage ratio of 142 per cent.

All commentary that follows is on an underlying basis and comparisons are made to the equivalent period in 2019 on a reported currency basis, unless otherwise stated.

• Operating income declined 12 per cent and was down 10 per cent on a constant currency basis and excluding a $36 million negative movement in the debit valuation adjustment (DVA). The impact of lower interest rates was partially offset by strong performances in Wealth Management and Financial Markets

• Net interest income decreased 16 per cent with increased volumes more than offset by a 24 per cent (38 basis points) decline in net interest margin

• Other income decreased 7 per cent, or 5 per cent excluding the negative impact of movements in DVA, with a strong performance in Wealth Management and Financial Markets offset by a $157 million reduction in Treasury. On a statutory basis, fees and commissions have increased 3 per cent

• Operating expenses were 1 per cent lower and broadly flat on a constant currency basis, absorbing continued investment into strategic initiatives. The cost-to-income ratio increased 7 percentage points to 70 per cent excluding DVA, due to the impact of the significantly lower interest rate environment on net interest income

• Credit impairment increased by $74 million to $353 million but was lower for a second consecutive quarter, down $258 million compared to 2Q'20. Stage 1 and 2 impairments of $109 million doubled and included a $77 million management overlay. Impairments of Stage 3 assets were up 9 per cent

• Other impairment of $15 million was primarily driven by impairment charges relating to aircraft

• Profit from associates and joint ventures was up 64 per cent to $74 million. The Group now recognises its share of profits of its associate China Bohai Bank based upon its most recently available quarterly results: for 3Q'20 reporting purposes this was based on a 19.99 per cent share of China Bohai Bank's 2Q'20 performance, historically the strongest quarter of the year. The Group's share of China Bohai Bank reduced to 16.26 per cent in the third quarter and this will be the share of profit that is reported in future quarters

• Underlying profit before tax decreased 40 per cent. Charges relating to goodwill impairment, restructuring and other items increased $177 million to $310 million, primarily relating to $231 million of goodwill impairment in UAE ($204 million) and Indonesia ($27 million) due to a lower GDP growth outlook, and a $35 million dilution loss relating to the initial public offering of the Group's associate, China Bohai Bank

• Taxation was $274 million on a statutory basis with an underlying year-to-date effective tax rate of 31.3 per cent up from the prior year rate of 28.1 per cent reflecting a non-repeat of prior year tax adjustments and lower profits increasing the impact of non-deductible expenses

• Underlying return on tangible equity declined by 450 basis points to 4.4 per cent, with the impact of reduced profits partly offset by lower tangible equity reflecting the dividends paid and share buy-back programmes completed since 1H'19

Operating income by product

1  Comparisons presented on the basis of the current period's transactional currency rate, ensuring like-for-like currency rates between the two periods

2 Not meaningful

Transaction Banking income was down 25 per cent. Cash Management declined 32 per cent as double-digit volume growth was more than offset by declining margins given the lower interest rate environment. Trade declined 10 per cent with lower balances reflecting a significant reduction in global trade volumes resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Financial Markets income grew 4 per cent or 8 per cent excluding DVA, despite significantly lower levels of market volatility than in the first half of this year, reflecting the impact of improvements made to the business model in recent years as well as increased hedging and investment activity by clients. There was double-digit growth in Rates, Commodities, Credit and Capital Markets while Foreign Exchange income was up slightly. Income from Securities Services declined 10 per cent due to lower margins partly offset by higher volumes.

Corporate Finance income was up 1 per cent reflecting increased balances primarily in Leveraged Structured Solutions.

Lending and Portfolio Management income was up 10 per cent with improved margins and increased volumes in Corporate Lending.

Wealth Management income was up 16 per cent and while market sentiment remains fragile, it has noticeably improved in many of the Group's larger markets, supplemented by clients increasingly using digital channels. There was a particularly strong sales performance in FX, equities and structured notes driving income excluding bancassurance up 17 per cent. Bancassurance income, which year-to-date is just over a quarter of total Wealth Management income, was 14 per cent higher compared to 3Q'19 as a result of a $53 million accelerated recognition of an annual bancassurance bonus within Retail Banking, which was booked in the second quarter in the prior year. The bonus booking is broadly flat on a year-to-date basis.

Retail Products income reduced 12 per cent on a reported basis and was down 11 per cent on a constant currency basis. Deposits income declined 41 per cent as margin compression more than offset increased volumes. Increases in margins and volumes led to 72 per cent growth across Mortgages & Auto and a 41 per cent increase in Other Retail Products. Credit Cards & Personal Loans income was down 2 per cent with new sales showing signs of recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels in some of the Group's markets.

Treasury income declined 88 per cent, broadly split equally across net interest income and other income. The decline in net interest income reflects reduced returns on deployed assets within Treasury Markets. The reduction in other income is due to a $67 million negative movement in hedging ineffectiveness, including hedge mark-to-market losses incurred in 3Q'20, reduced FX swap income and lower realisation gains. Treasury income declined 78 per cent on the second quarter with $84 million lower realisation gains, negative movements in hedging ineffectiveness and lower FX swap income partly offset by increased interest income where interest paid for external funding reduced more quickly than the returns on deployed assets.

Profit before tax by client segment and geographic region

1  Comparisons presented on the basis of the current period's transactional currency rate, ensuring like-for-like currency rates between the two periods

2 Not meaningful

Corporate & Institutional Banking income declined 6 per cent with the low interest rate environment leading to a 33 per cent decline in Cash Management more than offsetting an 8 per cent increase in Financial Markets excluding the impact of negative movements in DVA. Lower expenses and lower credit impairments partly offset the income reduction resulting in profits down 11 per cent or 5 per cent excluding DVA. Retail Banking income declined 2 per cent and 1 per cent on a constant currency basis. Higher impairments, including a management overlay of $48 million, was the primary driver of a 14 per cent reduction in profit. Commercial Banking income reduced 12 per cent, which along with impairments more than tripling resulted in profit declining 84 per cent. Private Banking profit was $17 million, an increase of $20 million with lower expenses and impairments partly offset by a 11 per cent reduction in income. Central & other items (segment) recorded a loss of $73 million as income decreased 95 per cent reflecting the impact of both the depressed interest rate environment and lower non-interest income within Treasury.

Greater China & North Asia income declined 7 per cent partly offset by a near two-thirds reduction in impairments which meant profits were down 5 per cent. ASEAN & South Asia profits were flat with a 5 per cent decline in income offset by lower expenses and impairments. Africa & Middle East continues to experience difficult conditions that included the effect of low oil prices in the period, with profits down 93 per cent after a $127 million increase in credit impairments, over half of which was the result of an overlay. Income was down 4 per cent but was up 1 per cent on a constant currency basis. Europe & Americas income decreased 9 per cent and was down 5 per cent excluding the impact of negative movements in DVA, which along with higher impairments resulted in profits declining 40 per cent. Central & other items (region) recorded a loss of $124 million with income declining $230 million due to negative movements in hedge ineffectiveness and lower returns paid to Treasury on the equity provided to the regions in a falling interest rate environment.

Adjusted net interest income and margin

1 The Group in 2019 changed its accounting policy for net interest income and the basis of preparation of its net interest margin to better reflect the underlying performance of its banking book. See notes to the financial statements in the 2019 Annual Report for further details.

2 Variance is better/(worse) other than assets and liabilities which is increase/(decrease)

3 Adjusted net interest income is statutory net interest income less funding costs for the trading book

4 Change is the basis points (bps) difference between the two periods rather than the percentage change

5 Adjusted net interest income divided by average interest-earning assets, annualized

Adjusted net interest income was down 20 per cent driven by a 24 per cent decline in net interest margin that fell 38 basis points year-on-year and 5 basis points compared to 2Q'20:

• Average interest-earning assets decreased 1 per cent in the quarter, driven by a decline in Treasury Markets assets. Gross yields declined 30 basis points compared with the average in the prior quarter and predominantly reflected the flow-through of declining interest rates in the second half of 2019 and those that occurred in the first quarter of 2020

• Average interest-bearing liabilities were broadly flat in the quarter despite the Group rolling off expensive term deposits. The deposit mix improved with a reduction in Corporate and Retail Banking time deposits and growth in individual current accounts. The rate paid on liabilities decreased 29 basis points compared with the average in the prior quarter reflecting interest rate movements, repricing liabilities lower and a shift in deposit mix

Credit risk summary

Income Statement

1  Variance is increase/(decrease) comparing current reporting period to prior reporting periods

Balance sheet

1  Variance is increase/(decrease) comparing current reporting period to prior reporting periods

2  3Q'19 Stage 3 balances, provisions and cover ratios have been restated to include interest due but unpaid together with equivalent credit impairment charge

3  Includes reverse repurchase agreements and other similar secured lending held at amortised cost of $4,330 million at 30 September 2020, $4,383 million at 30 June 2020, $1,469 million at 31 December 2019 and $6,132 million at 30 September 2019

4  Change is the percentage points difference between the two points rather than the percentage change

Asset quality remained broadly stable in the third quarter, with high-risk assets remaining at elevated levels due to the impact of COVID-19 on the economic environment. There has been no further deterioration in the negative economic outlook in the third quarter in many of the markets in which the Group operates and these markets are expected to help drive the global economy out of recession in 2021.

Credit impairment increased by $74 million to $353 million compared to 3Q'19 but was $258 million lower in 3Q'20 than in 2Q'20.

Stage 1 and 2 impairments of $109 million were double the level in 3Q'19 but were half the level recorded in 2Q'20 and included a further management overlay of $77 million. The overlay was taken to reflect the latest macroeconomic outlook not captured in the modelled outcome of Corporate & Institutional Banking and the potential impact to delinquencies and flow rates in Retail Banking of extensions to payment relief schemes in some markets as well as the ending of these schemes in India and Malaysia in 3Q'20.

Stage 3 impairments were up 9 per cent to $244 million reflecting the impact of COVID-19 induced macroeconomic deterioration on Retail Banking portfolios and Commercial Banking clients but were down $150 million on the previous quarter.

Gross stage 3 loans and advances to customers of $9.3 billion were up 6 per cent compared with 30 June 2020 primarily due to increased inflows in Corporate & Institutional Banking. These credit-impaired loans represented 3.2 per cent of gross loans and advances, an increase of 13 basis points compared with 30 June 2020.

The Stage 3 cover ratio of 58 per cent was down 2 percentage points compared with the position as at 30 June 2020, and the cover ratio post collateral at 76 per cent was down 4 percentage points, mainly reflecting new inflows into stage 3 where the Group is confident that it has a low probability of a significant loss.

Credit grade 12 balances have increased 29 per cent since 30 June 2020 primarily from new inflows from Early Alert accounts.

Early Alert accounts of $13.4 billion have reduced by $1 billion since 30 June 2020, with 80 per cent of the decline relating to downgrades in the Aviation and Metals & Mining sectors. The Group is continuing to monitor its exposures in the Aviation, Metals & Mining and Oil & Gas sectors particularly carefully, given the unusual stresses caused by the effects of COVID-19 including low oil prices.

The proportion of investment grade corporate exposures has increased since 30 June 2020 by 2 percentage points to 59 per cent.

Restructuring, goodwill impairment and other items

The Group's statutory performance is adjusted for profits or losses of a capital nature, amounts consequent to investment transactions driven by strategic intent, other infrequent and/or exceptional transactions that are significant or material in the context of the Group's normal business earnings for the period and items which management and investors would ordinarily identify separately when assessing underlying performance period-by period.

Other items of $266 million relates mainly to $231 million of goodwill impairment in UAE ($204 million) and Indonesia ($27 million) due to both a worsening GDP growth outlook and lower interest rate environment. Other items also includes a $35 million dilution loss relating to the initial public offering of the Group's associate China Bohai Bank. Restructuring charges of $44 million primarily reflect redundancy related charges as well as impairments from the Group's discontinued ship leasing business.

Balance sheet and liquidity

1  Variance is increase/(decrease)comparing current reporting period to prior reporting periods

2  The Group now excludes $14,363 million held with central banks (30.06.20: $13,595 million, 31.12.19: $9,109 million, 30.09.19: $10,632 million) that has been confirmed as repayable at the point of stress

The Group's balance sheet remains strong, liquid and well diversified:

• Loans and advances to customers increased 2 per cent since 30 June 2020 to $281 billion driven mainly by growth in Retail Mortgages within Greater China & North Asia and Corporate Lending which in part benefited from a temporary increase in balances relating to upcoming initial public offerings in Hong Kong

• Customer accounts of $418 billion decreased 1 per cent since 30 June 2020 with an increase in operating account balances within Retail Banking current accounts more than offset by a reduction in Corporate and Retail Banking time deposits

• Other assets increased 2 per cent since 30 June 2020 driven by increased balances at central banks and reverse repurchase agreements. Other liabilities increased 7 per cent from increased repurchase agreements and issued debt securities

The advances-to-deposits ratio increased to 63.8 per cent from 62.7 per cent at 30 June 2020. The liquidity coverage ratio reduced from 149 per cent to 142 per cent as the Group unwound some of the liquidity actions undertaken while funding markets were stressed earlier in the year and remains well above the minimum regulatory requirement of 100 per cent.

Risk-weighted assets

1 Variance is increase/(decrease) comparing current reporting period to prior reporting periods

Total risk-weighted assets (RWA) increased 2 per cent or $4 billion since 30 June 2020 to $267 billion:

• Credit Risk RWA increased by $4.6 billion in the third quarter to $217.7 billion driven by negative credit migration of $5.2 billion from the impact of economic disruption related to COVID-19. FX movements of $2.2 billion were offset by a $1.4 billion reduction in counterparty credit risk and a $0.9 billion reduction in revolving credit facilities

• Operational Risk RWA remained stable at $26.8 billion

• Market Risk RWA decreased by $0.5 billion to $22.1 billion primarily due to a decline in positions capitalised under standardised rules

Capital base and ratios

1 Variance is increase/(decrease) comparing current reporting period to prior reporting periods

2 Change is percentage points difference between two points rather than percentage change

The Group is well capitalised with low leverage and high levels of loss-absorbing capacity. Its capital metrics remain well above regulatory thresholds.

The Group's CET1 ratio of 14.4 per cent was 9 basis points higher than as at 30 June 2020, over four percentage points above the Group's latest regulatory minimum of 10.0 per cent and above the top of the 13-14 per cent medium-term target range. The impact on credit RWAs from negative credit migration was a 29 basis point reduction in the CET1 ratio. This was more than offset by the impact of other movements including profit accretion in the quarter, the favourable impact of FX on reserves as well as lower RWA on derivatives and revolving credit facilities. Excluding the impact of IFRS 9 or analogous ECLs transitional arrangements, the Group's CET1 ratio is 14.3 per cent.

The Group's UK leverage ratio of 5.2 per cent is flat to the ratio at 30 June 2020. The Group's leverage ratio remains significantly above its minimum requirement of 3.7 per cent.

The Group continues to target a CET1 ratio of 13-14 per cent in the medium-term.

Outlook

We expect similar fourth quarter seasonality to last year, and anticipate client demand to increase over the course of 2021 as more of the markets in which we operate start to come out of recession. The impact of the significant reduction in interest rates that occurred earlier this year should be fully reflected over the next two quarters with the net interest margin stabilising slightly below the current level in that timeframe.

In this protracted low interest rate environment, we will continue to optimise the drivers of our net interest income and are increasingly focusing on generating more fee-based income, particularly from our Financial Markets and Wealth Management businesses that have good momentum. We will continue to reduce operating expenses wherever possible so that we can maximise our investment in digital capabilities; as previously guided we expect expenses to be below $10 billion in both 2020 and 2021.

Our third quarter credit impairment outcome reinforces our previous view that our impairment costs should be lower in the second half of 2020 than in the first half. The expected economic recovery next year would support asset quality improvement, although we anticipate some sectors and markets will face continuing challenges.

On 25 February 2021 we will release our full-year 2020 results and will provide an update on the progress we are making on our strategic priorities in the context of the prevailing macroeconomic outlook. Given our strong capital position the Board will consider at that time resuming shareholder returns, subject to consultation with our regulators.

Andy Halford

Group Chief Financial Officer

29 October 2020