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Risks and uncertainties for UK construction sector up ‘considerably’

ALN

The UK construction sector is expected to continue to grow this year and next, but economic risks and uncertainties ‘have risen considerably’, the Construction Products Association said on Monday.

Total construction output is estimated to grow by 1.9% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, which matches projections from spring, the CPA said.

This was driven by the three largest sectors of construction, namely private housing new build; private housing repair, maintenance & improvement; and infrastructure.

The CPA said: ‘Infrastructure activity continues to remain strong on major projects such as Hinkley Point C and HS2, with water & sewerage as well as energy generation and distribution also set to become key drivers of growth next year. Large announcements of capital expenditure, the government’s recent 10-year infrastructure strategy and the infrastructure pipeline also show potential for the long-term.

‘However, constant pauses, delays and cancellations to road and rail projects, the most recent of which were at the start of the month, as well as questions over the level of funding in the next National Highways settlement highlight major risks to infrastructure delivery. Overall, infrastructure output is expected to rise by 1.9% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.’

Rebecca Larkin, CPA head of construction research, said while the key fundamentals have remained largely unchanged, the only thing that has changed is uncertainty.

‘The forecasts envisage demand and activity gradually picking up in the two largest construction sectors but with all the different uncertainties around the economy, the key question for housing new build and RM&I is still when: when will mortgage rates fall to allow for more homebuyers, when will existing homeowners feel confident enough to spend on larger home improvements, and when will delays at the Building Safety Regulator ease to allow house builders and developers to start more high-rise projects,’ she said.

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