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UK flash PMI readings miss September consensus estimates

ALN

UK private sector output remained in expansion territory in September, S&P Global reported on Tuesday.

The flash UK PMI composite output index posted 51.0 points for September, its lowest reading in four months and ‘[easing] markedly’ from a ‘12-month high’ of 53.5 in August. This underperformed against the 52.7 points reading forecast by the FXStreet-cited consensus.

The manufacturing PMI flash estimate was a five-month low of 46.2 points, down from 47.0 and missing the consensus forecast, which had expected no change.

The flash UK services PMI business activity index posted 51.9 points, a two-month low and down from 54.2 in August. FXStreet consensus had anticipated a smaller decline to 53.5 points.

And the flash UK manufacturing output index declined to a six-month low of 45.4 from 49.3 the previous month.

All four indices nonetheless remained in above the 50.0-point mark separating growth and contraction, and S&P Global noted that ‘UK private sector output expanded for the fifth month running’.

Still, S&P Global’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson commented: ‘The only good news is perhaps that, just as the Bank of England grows increasingly worried about persistently elevated inflation, the PMI indicated that price pressures have moderated in September. Companies reported one of the smallest increases in prices charged for goods and services seen since the pandemic.

‘With the weakening of business activity growth to a rate consistent with the economy almost stalling, and around 50,000 job losses being signalled by the PMI again in the three months to September, alarm bells should be ringing that the economy is faltering, which could help shift the policy debate at the Bank of England back towards a more dovish stance.’

The S&P Global flash UK composite PMI is compiled from survey responses by around 650 manufacturers and 650 service providers.

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