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Lunchtime market roundup: Sterling strengthens but UK data underwhelms

ALN

London’s FTSE 100 traded lower on Thursday, the outlier in Europe, but the pound was back above the $1.34 mark despite tepid UK growth data.

Elsewhere, eyes remained on a US-China spat, with stocks in New York set to open in the green despite the uncertainty. Gold’s rip-roaring rise continued, meanwhile.

The FTSE 100 index was down 11.86 points, 0.1%, at 9,412.89. The FTSE 250 was 49.10 points lower, 0.2%, at 21,971.86, and the AIM All-Share was up 1.41 points, 0.2%, at 788.83.

The Cboe UK 100 was down 0.3% at 941.43, the Cboe UK 250 was 0.4% lower at 19,208.61, and the Cboe Small Companies was 0.1% higher at 17,851.92.

In Paris, the CAC 40 was up 0.7%, while Frankfurt’s DAX 40 added 0.2%.

In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are called up 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite is set to add 0.6%.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury was at 4.02% midday Thursday, unchanged from where it stood at the time of the London equities close on Wednesday. The 30-year yield was unmoved at 4.61%.

‘The US-China spat looks set to take another turn after Trump warned that he could terminate the purchase of cooking oil in response to the recent collapse in Chinese purchases of US Soybean. Despite Trump’s efforts to calm markets over the weekend, we have seen subsequent claims that China seeks to turn up the pressure by further deepening the trade conflict,’ Rostro analyst Joshua Mahony commented.

Beijing said on Thursday the US’s latest moves to expand export controls and levy new port fees on Chinese ships have been ‘profoundly detrimental’ to trade talks between the two superpowers.

Commerce ministry spokeswoman He Yongqian said the US moved ahead with the measures while ‘disregarding China’s sincerity in consultations’, causing ‘severe damage to China’s interests... (and) a profoundly detrimental impact’.

Sterling advanced to $1.3436 on Thursday afternoon in London, from $1.3395 at the time of the London equities close on Wednesday. The euro rose to $1.1654 from $1.1635, while against the yen, the buck was flat at JP¥151.20.

The UK economy achieved minor growth in August, numbers from the Office for National Statistics showed, though the reading for July was downwardly revised.

Monthly growth of 0.1% for August was reported, but July’s reading was nudged down to a 0.1% decline. The ONS had initially reported that gross domestic product was flat in July.

S&P Global Market Intelligence analyst Raj Badiani commented: ‘UK economic growth is set to be muted in the next few quarters with private sector activity facing a damaging mix of external pressures, alongside increasing trepidation amid firms and consumers ahead of yet another difficult budget event. The latest short-term indicators suggest an end to the recent upward drift in the 2025 growth projection.

‘We expect UK real GDP growth to stand at 1.4% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026. Despite persistent growth concerns, still-elevated earnings growth and the prospect of headline inflation rising to 4% in September are likely to rule out a further interest rate cut this year. The first-rate cut is expected to occur in February 2026 and the bank rate to stand at 3.25% at the end of next year.’

French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu weathered two confidence motions Thursday, just days after appointing his new government and making a key political concession to stay in power.

The votes followed Lecornu’s decision Tuesday to back suspending a divisive 2023 pension reform, in a bid to keep his cabinet afloat long enough to pass a much-needed austerity budget by year’s end.

The leftist Socialist, PS, party had threatened to vote to oust the premier if he didn’t move to freeze the reform that would raise the retirement age from 62 to 64.

Without PS support, two separate motions brought on Thursday by the hard-left France Unbowed and far-right National Rally fell short of the votes needed to topple Lecornu.

But PS lawmaker Laurent Baumel warned Thursday that sparing the premier ‘was in no way a pact’ for the future, urging ‘new concessions’ in the looming budget talks.

An ounce of gold rose to $4,239.37 an ounce early Thursday afternoon, from $4,199.71 late Wednesday afternoon in London. Brent fell slightly to $62.16a barrel from $62.20.

Gold hit a new record high above $4,243 an ounce. Gold has clocked a record high every day this week so far.

In London, Croda and Whitbread book ended the FTSE 100.

Croda added 3.6%. The chemicals firm left its annual outlook unchanged. Sales in the three months to September 30 improved 4.4% on-year to £424.7 million from £406.6 million. At constant currency, they rose 6.5%.

‘As anticipated, customer demand in Q3 was similar to Q2, with sequential sales ahead in a more challenging market environment,’ Croda said.

Croda said US tariffs ‘contributed to volatility’ in the third quarter.

Whitbread plunged 9.6%. The Premier Inn owner said pretax profit fell 7.1% to £287 million in the half-year to August 28, from £309 million 12 months earlier. Revenue declined 1.8% to £1.54 billion from £1.57 billion, but beat £1.53 billion consensus.

Looking ahead, Whitbread said it remains ‘confident’ in the full year outlook.

‘While forward visibility remains limited and despite some uncertainty around the forthcoming UK budget, positive trading momentum and encouraging levels of bookings into future periods in both the UK and Germany mean we remain confident in the full year outlook,’ the firm said in a statement.

But it lowered expectations for its German business and now expects full year adjusted pretax profit of up to £5 million, versus previous guidance of £5 million to £10 million.

‘Whitbread shareholders will be wondering if Premier Inn’s ’good night sleep or your money back’ guarantee extends to investors, judging by yet another weak performance. Earnings in reverse, higher net debt, and a downgrade to forward profit guidance is the kind of news that makes investors suffer from insomnia,’ AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould commented.

AstraZeneca, the largest FTSE 100 listing, fell 0.9%. Deutsche Bank cut the drugmaker to ’sell’ from ’hold’. Also hurting the FTSE 100, Shell and BP fell 0.4% and 0.2%, hurt by a fading oil price.

Elsewhere in London, Filtronic shares rose 4.8%. Berenberg started coverage of the stock at ’buy’.

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