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The Office for Budget Responsibility on Wednesday released details, apparently in error, of its economic forecasts and tax raising measures in chaotic scenes ahead of the presentation of the UK autumn budget by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. In an unprecedented move, the OBR, the government’s independent forecaster, set out the main tax-raising measures in the budget alongside its assessment for the economy. The release shows the biggest tax raising measure is, as expected, a freeze to personal tax thresholds which will raise £8 billion by 2029 to 2030. The imposition of national insurance on salary sacrifice pension contributions raises an additional £4.7 billion. In addition, Reeves is set to announce unveil a council tax surcharge on properties worth more than £2 million, which should raise £400 million, the OBR says. Income tax on dividends are set to rise, while fuel duty is to be frozen. Reforms to gambling taxation will raise £1.1 billion by the end of parliament, according to the OBR. ‘From April 2026, there will be an increase in remote gaming duty from 21% to 40% and abolition of bingo duty from its current 10%,’ the OBR said. The OBR forecast for UK economic growth in 2026 has been slashed to 1.3% from the 1.9% expected in March. But growth this year is estimated at 1.3%, up from 1% previously estimated, thanks to a stronger than expected start of the year. The OBR expects UK inflation to average 3.5% in 2025, up from the 3.2% expected in March, and then decline to 2.5% in 2026, compared with 2.1% forecast in the spring. The OBR forecast public sector net debt to rise from 95.0% of GDP this year to a peak of 97.0% of GDP in 2028 to 2029. It expects the UK government’s fiscal mandate for the current budget to be in balance in 2029 to 2030 by a margin of £22 billion, £12 billion more than in March. Overall, the UK budget’s tax-raising measures are worth around £26 billion by the end of the parliament, according to the OBR document, which more than offsets extra spending of £11.3 billion. Copyright 2025 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
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