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Rio Tinto sees profit boost from cost cuts, asset sales, copper growth

ALN

Rio Tinto PLC on Thursday announced ambitions to sharpen and simplify the business, focused on three ‘world class’ operations, iron ore, copper and aluminium & lithium.

Ahead of its capital markets day, the London-based miner raised copper production guidance, nudged down capex forecasts, outlined plans for significant productivity benefits along with the ‘opportunistic release’ of capital from its existing asset base.

New Chief Executive Simon Trott said: ‘We are building from a position of strength for Rio Tinto’s next chapter, sharpening and simplifying the business to deliver leading returns.’

‘We are delivering strong early productivity benefits and cost savings with more to come. Freeing up cash from our asset base where it makes sense will strengthen the balance sheet and maintain returns, as we invest for the future with discipline,’ added Trott, who took the helm in August.

Shares in Rio Tinto traded 0.3% lower at 5,489.00 pence each in London on Thursday morning. In Sydney, Rio closed up 3.9% at A$140.58.

Rio said it will focus on three strategic pillars: operational excellence, streamlining to three businesses - iron ore, copper and aluminium & lithium; project execution; and capital discipline.

Production is expected to grow 7% in 2025, with 3% compound annual production growth forecast to 2030, underpinned by the delivery and ramp-up of developments across copper (Oyu Tolgoi), iron ore (Simandou) and lithium (Arcadium, Rincon).

Rio said $650 million of annualised productivity benefits were delivered in three months with ‘significantly’ more targeted.

To achieve this, Rio plans to simplify the business into three product groups, stronger operational discipline through leveraging productivity and efficiencies, and a sharper focus on the portfolio, stopping non-core projects, studies and programmes.

In addition, the FTSE 100 listing is eyeing the ‘opportunistic release’ of $5 billion to $10 billion from its existing asset base.

This includes exploring commercial, partnership and ownership options across land, infrastructure, mining and processing assets. The strategic reviews of Iron and Titanium, and Borates are advancing as planned, with the next phase focused on testing the market for these assets, Rio said.

Unit costs are expected to drop 4% between 2024 to 2030, while mid-term capex guidance is edged back to less than $10 billion from $10 billion to $11 billion before.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation could rise by as much as 40% to 50% by 2030 based on long-run consensus prices, driven by 20% copper equivalent production growth, operational excellence and capital discipline, Rio predicted.

Rio sees increasing earnings diversification, with a growing contribution this year from aluminium and copper and mid-term financials increasingly balanced across key commodities.

Copper production guidance for 2025 was upgraded to 860 thousand tonnes to 875 kt from 780 kt to 850 kt before, and unit cost guidance revised down to between 80 cents per pound to 100 c/lb, from 110 c/lb to 130 c/lb previously.

Bauxite production guidance for 2025 was upgraded to exceed the previous outlook of 59 million tonnes to 61mt, with aluminium production sees at the upper end of the 3.2mt to 3.45mt guidance range.

For 2026, Rio expects copper production of 800kt to 870kt, iron ore production of 343mt to 366mt and bauxite production of 58mt to 61mt.

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