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Greggs PLC on Thursday said market conditions remain challenging as it provided guidance for 2026 below current market consensus. The Newcastle-upon-Tyne-based bakery chain said total sales were up 6.8% to £2.15 billion in the twelve months to December 27 from £2.01 billion a year ago. Company-managed shop like-for-like sales rise 2.4%. Total sales in the fourth quarter rise 7.4%, while company-managed shop like-for-like sales were up 2.9%. ‘We made good progress in 2025, in a challenging year where subdued consumer confidence impacted the food-to-go market,’ said Chief Executive Roisin Currie. The firm opened 207 new shops in the year, with 50 relocations and 36 closures, resulting in 212 net new shop openings. At the end of 2025, Greggs had 2,739 shops trading. It expects to open around 120 net new shops in 2026, in line with guidance. ‘Subdued consumer confidence continued to impact the food-to-go market, as did weather extremes earlier in the year. Against this backdrop, Greggs increased its market share of visits, including at breakfast and in the evening,’ the firm said. Looking ahead, Greggs expects like-for-like cost inflation to be lower than in 2025 and consumer confidence to remain a ‘market headwind’ in the year ahead, which will ‘put some temporary pressure on margins’ along with the costs of new supply chain capacity. Market conditions ‘remain challenging’, the firm added. ‘Taking all of this into account, in the year ahead we expect to deliver profits at a similar underlying level to 2025, with any year-on-year improvement contingent on a recovery in the consumer backdrop,’ it continued. JPMorgan analyst Borja Olcese said the guidance for 2026 implies 5% downgrade to consensus estimates. Ross Broadfoot at RBC Capital Markets called it a ‘disappointing update’ and concurred that guidance for 2026 was 5% below his current estimate. Ahead of the update, Bloomberg consensus predicted underlying operating profit of £180.9 million in financial 2025 and £193.5 million in financial 2026. Shares in Greggs fell 7.2% to 1,645.03 pence each in London on Thursday morning. Copyright 2026 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
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