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UK GDP flat in January, misses 0.2% on-month growth forecast

ALN

The UK economy stalled in January, missing expectations for modest growth, as weakness in production offset flat services output, official data showed on Friday.

According to the Office for National Statistics, gross domestic product showed no growth month-on-month in January 2026, following expansions of 0.1% in December and 0.2% in November. FXStreet-cited consensus had pencilled in 0.2% monthly growth.

In the three months to January, however, real GDP rose 0.2% compared with the previous three-month period to October, following 0.1% growth in the three months to December. The ONS also revised the three months to November up to show no growth, from a previously estimated 0.1% fall.

On a monthly basis, services output was flat in January, after rising 0.2% in December and 0.1% in November. Production fell 0.1% on the month, while construction grew 0.2%, following three consecutive monthly declines.

Over the three months to January, services output rose 0.2%, with seven of the 14 sectors posting growth. The largest positive contributions came from wholesale and retail trade, up 1.0%, and information and communication, up 0.8%. Real estate activities were the main drag, falling 0.2%.

Production output increased 1.3% in the three months to January, building on 1.2% growth in the three months to December. By contrast, construction output fell 2.0% over the same period, marking the fourth consecutive three-monthly decline. Both new work and repair and maintenance fell, down 3.2% and 0.4% respectively, with private new housing down 6.3%.

Monthly construction output rose 0.2% in January, driven entirely by a 3.3% increase in repair and maintenance, as new work fell 2.0%.

Separate trade data showed a narrowing of the UK’s trade deficit. The total goods and services trade deficit narrowed by £5.1 billion to £1.8 billion in the three months to January, compared with the previous three-month period. The goods trade deficit narrowed by £3.1 billion to £56.6 billion, while the services surplus widened by £2.0 billion to £54.8 billion.

In January alone, the value of goods exports rose by £2.0 billion, or 6.7%, with increases to both EU and non-EU countries. Goods imports fell by £0.3 billion, or 0.6%. Exports of goods to the US fell by £0.5 billion, while imports from the US rose by £0.6 billion.

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