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UK manufacturing output falls amid ‘rising uncertainty’

ALN

The UK manufacturing purchasing managers’ index declined but remained in growth territory last month, survey publisher S&P Global reported on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global UK manufacturing PMI posted 51.0 in March, above the neutral 50.0 mark separating growth from contraction but down from 51.7 in February. It was also below the flash estimate of 51.4.

‘Manufacturing output decreased for the first time in six months, as a solid contraction in the intermediate goods industry more than offset mild (but slower) expansions at consumer and investment goods producers,’ S&P Global said. ‘The scaling back of production volumes was linked to rising uncertainty, war in the Middle East, stock management initiatives and lower levels of confidence about the year ahead at manufacturers and their clients alike.’

Rob Dobson, director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, added: ‘The impact of the war also caused noticeable shifts in the cost and supply chain backdrops. Delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent since mid-2022, while the acceleration in input price inflation was the steepest since the aftermath of the UK’s withdrawal from the ERM in 1992.

‘The resulting high-cost environment and shortages of inputs were also factors stymying production volumes.’

S&P Global added that business optimism on the outlook for production volumes fell to its lowest level since September, and that the future output index has fallen by 5.6 points since February, its ‘steepest one-month decline in a year’.

‘The one possible positive is that, despite rising at a slower rate, the trend in new order inflows held up better than production,’ Dobson noted. ‘This suggests that the drop in production is currently more of a supply issue than one caused by an outright downturn in demand, though it’s hard to see how demand can prove resilient in the face of current high energy prices and economic uncertainty unless there’s a swift resolution to the war in the Middle East.’

The UK manufacturing PMI is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 650 manufacturers. The latest data was collected between March 12 and March 26.

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