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Early market roundup: Ceasefire lifts equities but hits dollar and oil

ALN

Stock prices in London were sharply higher with the bulk of the FTSE 100 surging on a Middle East ceasefire, leaving oil majors trailing in their wake as crude prices sunk.

Trump said Tuesday he agreed to suspend bombing of Iran for two weeks as part of a ceasefire deal if Tehran completely reopens the vital Strait of Hormuz.

‘Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks,’ Trump posted just an hour before his deadline to start catastrophic attacks.

‘This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE!’ Trump wrote.

The FTSE 100 index soared 250.83 points, 2.4%, at 10,599.62 and had traded as high as 10,655.92.

The FTSE 250 jumped 811.46 points, 3.8%, at 22,367.91, and the AIM all-share rallied 19.44 points, 2.6%, at 757.87.

The Cboe UK 100 climbed 2.4% at 1,055.10, the Cboe UK 250 surged 3.8% at 19,381.32, but the Cboe small companies edged down 0.2% at 17,200.60.

The CAC 40 in Paris jumped 3.4%, while Frankfurt’s DAX 40 skyrocketed 4.8%.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 surged 5.4%. In China, the Shanghai Composite added 2.7%, while the Hang Seng Index shot up 2.8%. The S&P/ASX 200 in Sydney climbed 2.6%.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury narrowed markedly to 4.24% from 4.37% at the time of the London equities close. The 30-year yield eased to 4.85% from 4.95%.

Sterling surged to $1.3413 from $1.3248 and rose to €1.1482 from €1.1447. The euro rallied to $1.1681 from $1.1573, while against the yen, the dollar declined to JP¥158.35 from JP¥159.91.

A barrel of Brent tumbled to $94.43 from $110.24 at the time of the London equities close on Tuesday. Gold jumped to $4,812.27 an ounce from $4,645.77. Brent hit its lowest level since March 11, and gold its loftiest since March 19.

‘Even if this ceasefire becomes a more lasting peace agreement, we do not expect oil and gas prices to return to their pre-conflict levels as it will take time for industry operations in the Persian Gulf to normalise,’ analysts at Shore Capital said.

Before the ceasefire announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.2% lower in New York on Tuesday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each edged up 0.1%. The trio are set to register sharp gains on Wednesday, according to stock market futures.

On the FTSE 100, miners, banks and housebuilders were among those leading the charge. Copper miner Antofagasta jumped 13%, gold miner Fresnillo surged 10% and housebuilder Persimmon shot up 9.5%.

The war hurt the economic outlook, hitting copper prices. It also weighed on precious metal prices and stoked inflationary concerns, leading to fears of higher for longer interest rates weighing on housing market activity.

On the decline, Shell and BP slumped 6.7% and 8.1%, tracking oil prices lower.

Shell reported that output in its first quarter was hurt by the conflict in the Middle East, though refining margins increased.

In its customary pre-results teaser, the oil major said it expects to report Integrated Gas output in the range of 880,000 to 920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the first quarter, easing from 948,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The outcome ‘reflects the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatari volumes’.

It had initially predicted output between 920,000 and 980,000 boepd.

Shell put its indicative refining margin in the Chemicals & Products segment at $17 a barrel for the first quarter, up from $14. It said ‘trading & optimisation is expected to be significantly higher’ than the fourth quarter.

Shell earlier in March said it was assessing the damage after a fire at one of its liquefied natural gas plants in Qatar. It attributed the fire at PearlGTL to an attack on Ras Laffan Industrial City.

LNG production in Qatar had been suspended since early March due to the conflict.

Travel stocks rose, with Wizz Air up 15%. However, the head of the International Air Transport Association cautioned that it will take months for jet fuel supplies and prices to normalise even with the Strait of Hormuz open.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh told reporters in Singapore it was difficult to say how long fuel supplies would take to recover, but ‘it’s not going to happen quickly’.

‘It will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East,’ he said.

‘I don’t think it’s going to happen in weeks,’ Walsh added.

Elsewhere, Close Brothers climbed 21%. It has reviewed the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s final motor finance verdict, putting the cost of the scheme at around £320 million. This is ‘broadly similar’ to its existing IAS 37 provision of £294 million. The £320 million can be ‘comfortably absorbed by existing capital resources, leaving the group well positioned to continue delivering its strategy’.

‘At this stage, no provision changes have been recognised. The group’s existing IAS 37 provision remains under review. The group will continue to closely monitor any further legal, regulatory and industry developments and is considering its next steps,’ it added.

It said the sum would trim its common equity tier 1 ratio by around 25 basis points to 14.0% on a pro forma basis.

‘This remains comfortably ahead of the group’s medium-term target of 12-13%,’ it said.

Gamma Communications surged 12%. It confirmed late Tuesday that it is in early-stage talks with ‘potential offerors’.

The communication services provider said, in response to ‘recent press speculation,’ that it was in ‘preliminary discussions with a number of interested counterparties’.

The talks aimed to establish ‘whether such potential offerors might be willing to put forward a proposal that would deliver greater value to shareholders than pursuing a standalone independent strategy,’ Gamma explained.

It added that these discussions ‘are at an early stage,’ and that there can consequently be no certainty that an offer will be made.

Earlier on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that Gamma was ‘exploring options including a potential sale of the business,’ citing anonymous ‘people with knowledge of the matter’.

Greatland Resources jumped 15% on AIM, amid the boost from the higher gold price. The firm also reported quarterly output figures.

It said it is ‘closely monitoring potential supply chain and cost impacts’ due to the Middle East conflict. The gold producer said the Tefler asset is ‘not currently impacted by diesel supply disruptions’ and that processing plant power at the project is generated onsite by natural gas that is delivered through the Pilbara Pipeline System in Western Australia.

Greatland said output in the quarter ended March amounted to 82,723 ounces of gold, taking its financial year-to-date figure to 249,887 ounces.

It expects output for the year to June ‘around, or slightly above’ the upper end of its 260,000 to 310,000 ounces guidance range.

‘Greatland maintains full upside exposure to the gold price, with partial downside price protection provided from gold put options,’ it added.

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