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Early market roundup: FTSE 100 rises, peers fall amid ceasefire nerves

ALN

European stocks opened mixed on Thursday, after Asian stocks closed lower as the ceasefire agreed this week showed signs of frailty, supporting the Brent price.

‘In short, the reality of the fragility of the temporary truce has bitten, especially with President Trump’s social media post making it clear that US military resources will remain in the region and uncertainty ongoing about security for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz,’ analysts at Lloyds Bank commented.

The FTSE 100 index added 13.57 points, 0.1%, at 10,622.45. The FTSE 250 fell 135.39 points, 0.6%, at 22,299.44, and the AIM all-share edged up 0.70 of a point, 0.1%, at 764.51.

The Cboe UK 100 climbed 0.2% at 1,057.62, the Cboe UK 250 fell 0.6% at 19,336.46, but the Cboe small companies edged up 0.1% at 17,580.51.

The CAC 40 in Paris fell 0.5%, while Frankfurt’s DAX 40 lost 0.4%.

The FTSE 100’s constituents, including oil majors Shell and BP, have meant it has been more resilient in the face of the Middle East conflict than its European peers.

It does, however, mean that when relief rallies do come, the European peers make larger strides. The DAX jumped 5.1% on Wednesday and the Paris blue-chip benchmark surged 4.5%, while the FTSE rose 2.5%.

Shell and BP were on the up on Thursday, adding 0.7% and 1.9%, tracking Brent higher.

A barrel of Brent rose to $97.40 early Thursday, from $95.20 at the time of the London equities close on Wednesday.

In Tokyo on Thursday, the Nikkei 225 ended down 0.7%. In China, the Shanghai Composite also fell 0.7%, while the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong was down 0.6% in late trade. In Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2%.

Trump said late Wednesday that US forces deployed near Iran would remain stationed in the area until a ‘real agreement’ is reached, as Washington enters a fragile two-week ceasefire with Tehran.

The truce reached Tuesday showed signs of unravelling, with Israel bombarding Lebanon and Washington contradicting some of Iran’s demands to end the war ahead of planned talks.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has arrived in the United Arab Emirates on the second leg of his trip to Gulf countries amid signs the US-Iran ceasefire is coming under strain.

The UK prime minister is visiting allies in the region for talks on upholding the pause in fighting and what steps are needed to bring confidence to get shipping going again through the Strait of Hormuz.

He spoke to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah and is expected to meet UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Starmer has welcomed the two-week pause in US President Trump’s bombing campaign, but said it is ‘early days’ and that more work needs to be done to restore shipping through the key route.

Against the dollar, sterling fell to $1.3385 on Thursday from $1.3438 late Wednesday. Against the euro, it declined to €1.1480 from €1.1495.

Against the dollar, the single currency faded to $1.1659 from $1.1690. Versus the yen, the buck traded at JP¥158.92, up from JP¥158.39.

Thursday’s global economic calendar includes US GDP and personal consumption expenditures data at 1330 BST.

Lloyds Bank analysts commented: ‘Given that today’s US economic data feels very dated (delayed PCE for February and final cut of Q4 GDP), markets remain dependent on Middle East conflict headlines.

‘The Fed minutes from the March FOMC meeting were also published overnight. A recurrent emphasis on both uncertainty and on a divergence theme with risks to employment skewed to the downside of projections and risks to inflation to the upside.’

Federal Reserve officials said they will need to stay ‘nimble’ as they weigh the impact of the Middle East crisis on the US economy, minutes on Wednesday showed.

In the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting, officials highlighted two-sided risks to monetary policy from the conflict.

While most participants raised the concern that a protracted conflict in the Middle East could lead to a further softening in labour market conditions, which could warrant additional rate cuts, some put the case for rate hikes.

‘Some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the committee’s future interest-rate decisions in the post-meeting statement, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation were to remain at above-target levels,’ the minutes said.

Overall, officials emphasised the importance of being ‘nimble’ in adjusting the stance of policy in response to incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

Officials said it was too early to know how developments in the Middle East would affect the US economy and judged it ‘prudent’ to continue to monitor the situation.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury stretched to 4.29% early Thursday from 4.27% on Wednesday. The 30-year widened to 4.89% from 4.86%.

In the US on Wednesday, Wall Street ended higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.9%, the S&P 500 up 2.5% and the Nasdaq Composite up 2.8%.

Gold declined to $4,715.27 an ounce early Thursday, from $4,753.65 at the time of the London equities close on Wednesday.

Leading the way in London, DCC added 2.3%. Exane BNP lifted the provider of sales, marketing and distribution services to ’outperform’ from ’neutral’.

Ceres Power was the worst FTSE 250 performer, losing 8.1% after Peel Hunt cut it to ’sell’.

ME Group rose 5.9% as the instant service equipment provider has launched a new partnership with UK grocer Asda, for its Wash.ME laundry machines.

‘The overall ambition is to target up to 700 Wash.ME laundry machines across these sites. These sites are attractive, high-footfall locations which can be easily accessed and maintained by the group’s strong network of field engineers,’ ME Group added.

Elsewhere, Van Elle jumped 55%. It has agreed to a £58.8 million buyout from construction company Strabag. Strabag will pay 52.3 pence in cash for each share in the ground engineering contractor, a 59% premium to its 33.0p closing price on Wednesday.

‘The strong strategic fit identified between Strabag UK and Van Elle is expected to drive growth following the transaction, incremental to the respective growth prospects of the current businesses. Complementary client relationships and end markets, particularly in the residential, water, energy and transport sectors, create attractive cross-selling opportunities, broaden the combined civil engineering offering around ground engineering works, and generate revenue synergies,’ Van Elle said.

‘The Van Elle board considers that, notwithstanding their belief that the Van Elle group has significant medium term opportunities, and the strategic progress made over the last five years, the potential for a sustained and material improvement in the valuation of the Van Elle shares is likely to be limited in the near term. Furthermore, the share price of the Van Elle shares is unlikely to reflect fundamental value of the Van Elle group given the illiquid trading in the Van Elle shares and investor sentiment towards smaller UK-quoted companies remaining subdued.’

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