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Stocks edged up around noon on Tuesday in London, as the market kept an eye on a soon-to-expire ceasefire between the US and Iran. Away from the conflict, data showed the UK unemployment rate had a surprise fall. In the US, the next Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh is to speak before the Senate. The FTSE 100 index traded up 19.68 points, 0.2%, at 10,628.76. The FTSE 250 shot up 232.13 points, 1.0%, at 23,172.34, and the AIM all-share was up 4.04 points, 0.5%, at 812.38. The Cboe UK 100 was up 0.1% at 1,058.60, the Cboe UK 250 was up 1.1% at 20,276.52, and the Cboe small companies added 0.2% at 18,259.49. In Paris, the CAC 40 rose 0.2%, while Frankfurt’s DAX 40 added 0.6%. ‘Tentative gains in Europe reflect a cautious optimism that tomorrow’s ceasefire deadline may be averted despite Trump’s claim that he doesn’t plan to extend the two-week pause. For European markets, the main area of weakness comes from the defence stocks, with Rolls-Royce, BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, Thales, and Leonardo all losing ground. That stands as a potential signal that markets believe we are on the cusp of a deal that not only extends the ceasefire but enacts a lasting solution that draws a line under the conflict in the Middle East,’ Scope Markets analyst Joshua Mahony commented. Rolls-Royce and BAE were down 1.6% and 1.3% in London. Rheinmetall lost 0.6% in Frankfurt, Leonardo fell 2.1% in Milan and Thales shed 4.0% in Paris. The US and Iran both warned they were ready for war as the clock ticked down on a ceasefire on Tuesday, with uncertainty over whether talks that President Donald Trump had announced would resume in Pakistan. Brent oil was quoted at $94.39 a barrel midday Tuesday, down from $94.45 late Monday. Gold was quoted lower at $4,785.89 an ounce against $4,806.14. XS.com analyst Samer Hasn commented: ‘The decline in oil prices comes amid optimism that the war in the Middle East cannot be sustained much longer, even as the risk of renewed escalation rises. Reports and leaks conflict on whether the ceasefire deadline, which ends tomorrow, will be extended. However, it seems the market is not pricing in further escalation, at least for now.’ The pound fell to $1.3505 early Tuesday afternoon, from $1.3535 at the time of the London equities close on Monday. Against the euro, sterling was flat at €1.1486. The euro stood at $1.1772, down against $1.1786. Against the yen, the dollar was trading higher at JP¥159.20 from JP¥158.58. The UK unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in the three months ended February, from 5.2% in the three months to January. Average earnings excluding bonuses increased 3.6%, slowing from 3.8% the previous quarter but surpassing the consensus estimate of 3.5%. Including bonuses, they rose 3.8%, more than the expected 3.6% but less than the prior growth of 4.1%, revised upwards from 3.9%. Analysts at Lloyds Bank commented: ‘The private sector regular pay growth rate of 3.2% still looks now as though it will undershoot the Q1 BoE February MPR projection of 3.5% next month. ‘The BoE will take some comfort from pay growth looking less inflationary than it expected but be a little more concerned that the unemployment rate indicates tighter conditions than anticipated. But in reality, with most of the data in this report being pre-energy shock, its relevance for forthcoming policy decisions has somewhat faded.’ The next Bank of England decision is a week on Thursday. In London, AB Foods shares fell 2.8%. It plans to demerge its fast-fashion retail business, Primark, as the group reported lower-than-expected half-year profit and soft trading at its Sugar business. It is intended that both Primark and ’FoodCo’ will be listed on the London Stock Exchange and, given their scale, both are expected to be constituents of the FTSE 100 index. Alongside the strategic update, AB Foods said pretax profit fell 8.7% to £632 million in the 24 weeks that ended February 27 from £692 million a year prior. THG added 8.0%. It reported its best first-quarter growth since 2021, with performance only ‘modestly’ impacted by disruption in the Middle East. The Manchester, England-based online retailer of sports nutrition and beauty products said revenue grew 4.6% to £393.1 million in the first quarter of 2026, or by 7.0% for continuing operations at constant exchange rates. Chief Executive Matthew Moulding said: ‘It is energising for everyone at THG to see such a strong start to 2026, building on the better-than-expected momentum we delivered in H2 2025.’ He said THG enters the second quarter with ‘confidence’ after a better-than-expected first three months of the year, ‘giving us a stronger base against any unforeseen risks later in the year.’ Crest Nicholson plunged 39%. It lowered sales and profit expectations for the current financial year and warned of higher debt than forecast. Crest Nicholson said it is acting ‘quickly and decisively’ to prioritise cash and balance sheet strength whilst the uncertainty caused by the Middle East crisis persists. In a trading update, the firm said there has been a reduction in new enquiries and visitor levels since its last update in March, a ‘marked’ softening in sentiment among prospective land purchasers and that buyers have become more cautious. As a result, Crest Nicholson said it reducing its volume expectations for the financial year to 1,400 to 1,500 units from 1,550 to 1,700 units before, and now anticipates reduced land sales of £40 million, down from £75 million to £100 million previously. Given higher energy costs, Crest Nicholson has also built in an expectation of higher build costs in the balance of the financial year. This means the firm now expects to achieve earnings before interest and tax for the financial year of around £5 million to £15 million, with interest costs of around £15 million, and a revised year-end net debt position of £100 million to £120 million. JPMorgan said this implies a full-year pretax range between breakeven and a loss of £10 million which compares to previous guidance of £32 million and £40 million. In the financial year ending October 2025, Crest reported a pretax profit of £2.9 million. Still to come on Tuesday is a US retail sales reading at 1330 BST. Ahead of the data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is called up 0.6%, the S&P 500 up 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.4% higher. Also on the horizon, Warsh, US President Trump’s choice to lead the Federal Reserve, will stress his dedication to central bank independence on interest rates at a crucial confirmation hearing Tuesday, according to prepared remarks seen by AFP. ‘I am committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent,’ Warsh is to say in an opening statement to the Senate Banking Committee. He is also expected to express commitment to fighting inflation. The hearing, scheduled for 10:00 am (1500 BST), is a key hurdle Warsh needs to overcome in order to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term at the helm ends on May 15. Copyright 2026 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
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