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UK economy rebounds in April, but cost pressures cloud outlook

ALN

The UK private sector regained growth momentum in April, according to preliminary purchasing managers’ index survey results released by S&P Global on Thursday.

The flash PMI composite output index registered 52.0 points in April, above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction, and up from March’s reading of 50.3 points, indicating an accelerated pace of growth.

The reading came in ahead of FXStreet-cited market consensus, which had forecast the UK private sector would slip into contraction with a 49.8-point PMI reading.

Both the services and manufacturing readings outperformed market expectations.

The services PMI business activity index ticked up to 52.0 points from 50.5 in March, ahead of the 50-point consensus.

The manufacturing output index moved into growth territory at 51.8 points, improved from 49.2 the month prior.

The manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in 47 months, rising to 53.6 points in April from 51.0 in March, and ahead of consensus, which had forecast a decline to 49.9 points.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global, commented: ‘The UK economy has gathered some renewed momentum in April after the initial impact of the war in the Middle East caused growth to stall in March, but the upturn comes with a catch. The improved rate of expansion is in part a reflection of a short-term boost from a rush to secure purchases ahead of feared price rises and supply shortages linked to the war.

‘Prices have spiked higher at a rate not previously seen by the survey outside of the pandemic, suggesting inflation could rise more than many forecasters have been anticipating. Prices are rising not just because of surging energy costs, but also due to increases in charges levied for a wide variety of goods and services.’

April saw the steepest rise in average cost burdens in more than three years, S&P Global noted, with spikes in manufacturing input prices, alongside raw material and transport costs.

The seasonally adjusted input prices index registered the sharpest monthly increase for service sector input cost inflation since the survey began almost 30 years ago, S&P Global added.

Business confidence and employment levels also suggest less cause for optimism, with sentiment at its second weakest since December 2022, surpassed only by the slump resulting from US tariff announcements last April. Private sector employment also decreased for the nineteenth consecutive month.

‘The survey highlights the difficult choices facing policymakers at the Bank of England,’ S&P Global’s Williamson said.

‘The spike in price pressures will add to calls for rate hikes to dampen inflation, but the bank will need to carefully assess the degree to which economic growth might weaken. While April’s PMI is indicative of the economy rebounding from a flat picture in March to a 0.2% quarterly growth rate, the details of the survey hint strongly that this pace cannot be sustained should the crisis persist.’

The flash PMI is based on survey responses from around 650 manufacturers and 650 service providers in the UK, with data collected between April 9 and 21. Flash readings reflec around 85% of responses. Final manufacturing data is due on May 1, while final services and composite data is due May 6.

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